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| #932774 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:57 AM 15.Jul.2018) TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 AM AST Sun Jul 15 2018 Overall, Beryl has become less organized since yesterday, with the cyclone currently comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with minimal convection in the southeastern quadrant. While the low-level center remains over the Gulf Stream, GOES-16 airmass imagery indicates that the center is now west of the associated upper-level trough and that significant northerly vertical shear is occurring. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on a subtropical intensity estimate from TAFB, and it could be a little generous. The storm has drifted east-northeastward during the past 12 h, with the initial motion now 075/3. A deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving eastward across eastern Canada and the northeastern United States should cause the cyclone to resume a northeastward motion by tonight, with a faster northeastward motion expected on Monday and Tuesday. The new forecast track is nudged a little to the east of the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. Since the new forecast track keeps the center over the Gulf Stream for another 12 h, the intensity forecast calls for little change in strength during that time. After that, a quick decay over cold water should occur, and the new intensity forecast is the same as the previous forecast in calling for Beryl to dissipate completely by 72 h. It should be noted that if the convection does not increase above its current level, the system could weaken and dissipate earlier than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 38.1N 64.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 39.0N 63.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 40.8N 61.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z 43.2N 58.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z 45.9N 55.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |