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| #935475 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 08.Aug.2018) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 08 2018 The cloud pattern of Debby this morning is definitely typical of a tropical cyclone instead of a subtropical system with moderate convection wrapping around the center, and a well defined upper-level outflow in the eastern semicircle. A blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and CIMMS SATCON still support an initial intensity of 40 kt. A recent ASCAT pass suggest that this estimate could be generous. Debby is already moving over cooler waters, so a gradual weakening is anticipated before the system becomes extratropical and then gets absorbed by a larger trough. In fact, most of the reliable global models degenerate Debby into a trough of low pressure on Thursday. The initial motion is toward the northeast or 035 degrees at 10 kt. The cyclone is embedded within a mid-latitude trough, and will continue to move on this general northeastward track with some increase in forward speed in tandem with the trough until dissipation. The track models are in pretty good agreement on this solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 41.2N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 42.4N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 44.2N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 46.5N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |