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| #936474 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 17.Aug.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 Ernesto`s cloud pattern has deteriorated since this morning with deep convection decreasing in coverage and becoming a little more separated from the low-level center. However, there is still enough organized convection to maintain the system as a tropical cyclone a little longer. The most recent satellite estimates and earlier ASCAT data still support an initial intensity of 40 kt. Ernesto will continue moving over colder waters and is expected to become post-tropical this evening. Little change in strength is predicted during the next 12-24 hours while the system moves over quickly across the northern Atlantic. Global models indicate that the cyclone will weaken as it approaches Ireland Saturday night and the system should merge with a frontal zone located across the central portions of the United Kingdom and Ireland by Sunday morning. The cyclone is racing northeastward at about 27 kt. Now that the system is embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, a rapid northeastward or east-northeastward motion should continue until dissipation occurs. There has been little change to the track guidance or the official forecast which lies near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday. Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 49.1N 29.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 51.1N 23.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 18/1800Z 53.2N 14.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/0600Z 54.8N 5.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |