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| #938365 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 03.Sep.2018) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Mon Sep 03 2018 Florence appears a little better organized than earlier today. Deep convection is slightly stronger near and to the north of the center, and the cloud pattern still resembles a central dense overcast. A blend of the latest Dvorak classifications suggests a slightly higher wind speed, and accordingly, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 60 kt. The strong tropical storm is moving westward, or 280 degrees, at 13 kt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. The global models all show a persistent weakness in the subtropical ridge during the next several days due to a series of troughs moving across the Atlantic. In response, Florence is expected to gradually turn northwestward with a slight reduction in forward speed during the next several days. While there remains a fair amount of spread in the models from 72 to 120 h, there has been a notable trend to the right, or north, during the past few model cycles. The official track forecast is adjusted slightly to the right as well, trending toward the latest consensus aids. Little change in strength is expected through tonight as Florence remains over marginally warm waters and in moderate wind shear conditions. However, nearly all of the intensity models show a slow weakening trend during the next few days. This weakening is in response to a gradual increase in southwesterly or westerly shear. Beyond a few days, however, the shear is expected to decrease and Florence will be over much warmer waters. Therefore, slow strengthening is shown in the 3 to 5 day period. This forecast is slightly higher than the previous one at the longer range, but is otherwise unchanged. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 18.6N 39.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 19.0N 41.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 19.6N 43.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 20.4N 46.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 21.5N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 23.7N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 26.0N 55.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 28.0N 57.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |