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| #943123 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 05.Oct.2018) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 05 2018 Leslie`s cloud pattern consists of a small ring of shallow to moderate convection embedded within a large and vigorous circulation. Dvorak classifications allow me to keep the same intensity, and in fact, ASCAT data just came in with a few 50-kt wind vectors. So the initial intensity remains at 50 kt in this advisory. Leslie will not encounter any hostile shear, but the cyclone will move over a few patches of warm and cool waters. The guidance shows some minor fluctuations in the cyclone intensity, most likely due to the aforementioned SST variations along the track, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. Leslie is moving toward the east-northeast or 075 degrees at 6 kt. The cyclone is already embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow, which is being modulated by passing shortwaves. This flow pattern is expected to persist and should steer Leslie eastward and east-southeastward through the next 5 days. Although the track guidance is not as clustered as in previous days, most of the models agree with the eastward motion of the cyclone, but vary in speed. It appears that stubborn Leslie will be with us for several more days. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the eastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 36.6N 57.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 37.0N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 37.0N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 36.5N 51.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 36.0N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 34.0N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 31.0N 41.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 29.0N 38.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |