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| #943259 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 06.Oct.2018) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 06 2018 Leslie`s convective organization has changed little since the previous advisory, with a small burst of deep convection having developed just southeast of the center. The intensity remains at 50 kt based on an average of current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, which is supported by a partial ASCAT pass that showed several 45-kt surface wind vectors well east of the missed low-level center. The initial motion estimate is easterly or 095/11 kt. Leslie is forecast to remain embedded in weak mid-latitude west-northwesterly flow for the next few days, which should keep the cyclone moving toward the east-southeast over warmer water. By 72 h and beyond, a stronger shortwave trough is forecast to dig to the west of Leslie, lifting the cyclone out toward the east and northeast. The new NHC forecast track is similar to, but a slower than, the previous advisory track, but not as slow as the consensus models. Leslie is expected to weaken slightly during the next 36 h as the cyclone entrains some drier air. After that time, however, Leslie is expected to move over warmer waters with SSTs reaching more than 25 deg C by 48 h and beyond while the shear is forecast to remain low. As a result, some modest re-strengthening is forecast on days 2-5. The official intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 37.3N 52.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 36.8N 51.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 36.2N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 35.4N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 34.2N 43.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 30.9N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 28.7N 33.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 29.5N 28.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart |