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| #943323 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 07.Oct.2018) TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 1500 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.9W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.9W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 86.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.2N 86.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.9N 87.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 37.8N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 86.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |