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| #943630 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:59 AM 09.Oct.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Fifteen Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 600 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 Geostationary satellite and recent microwave data indicate that the low pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean has developed sufficently organized deep convection and a well-defined center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression, the fifteenth one of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in agreement with Dvorak 2.0/30 kt classifications from both TAFB and SAB. The depression is expected to strengthen a little during the next 36 to 48 hours while it remains in favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Thereafter, a significant increase in west-southwesterly shear, drier air, and slightly cooler SSTs should cause weakening. The global models all show the depression opening up into a trough by day 5, and the official forecast predicts dissipation accordingly. The initial motion is uncertain since the system just formed a well-defined center, but my best guess is 285/10 kt. The depression is expected to turn northwestward tonight and continue in that general direction on Wednesday and Thursday as it moves toward a broad trough over the central Atlantic, the same one that Leslie is embedded in. After that time, when the system weakens and becomes shallow, a turn back to the left is forecast. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1000Z 10.3N 29.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 10.6N 30.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 11.3N 32.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 12.4N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 13.6N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 16.1N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 17.5N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |