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| #944281 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 PM 11.Oct.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 Although Nadine remains under the influence of strong southwesterly shear, a new burst of convection went up a few hours ago and covered the low-level center again. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on consensus T3.0 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Even stronger shear is expected to cause Nadine to weaken during the next day or two, and the global models all agree that the system will open up into a trough by 48 hours. The updated NHC forecast is unchanged from the previous one. Nadine is moving west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt. A low-level ridge is forecast to steer the cyclone west-northwestward and then westward at an increasing speed until it dissipates by 48 hours. The new track guidance has bended slightly southwestward on this cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast has been shifted in that direction toward the multi-model consensus aids and HCCA guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 14.9N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 15.2N 36.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 15.6N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 15.8N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |