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| #944372 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 12.Oct.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 Strong southwesterly shear has caused the center of Nadine to become well removed from the deep convection this morning. Although Dvorak satellite intensity estimates were T3.0 (45 kt) at 1200 UTC, the center has become further removed from the convection since that time, and the initial wind speed has been reduced to 40 kt for this advisory. The strong southwesterly shear is expected to persist over Nadine through the weekend, which should result in steady weakening and dissipation of the system by Sunday, if not sooner. Nadine took a northwestward jog overnight, but now appears to have resumed a west-northwestward heading at about 7 kt. As the storm weakens and becomes a shallower system it should turn westward and accelerate within the low-level trade wind flow. The more northward initial position has required a northward adjustment in the NHC track forecast, but the new forecast again takes Nadine westward until dissipation occurs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 16.0N 36.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 16.1N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 16.3N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 16.5N 43.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |