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| #974324 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 PM 11.Jul.2019) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Despite the lack of convection over the northern portion of the storm, reconnaissance aircraft data show that Barry has strengthened this evening. The aircraft has found peak 850 mb flight-level winds of 55 kt, and believable SFMR winds of around 45 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been increased to 45 kt. The NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve aircraft have also reported that the pressure has fallen a couple of millibars since the previous advisory. The tropical storm continues to be affected by northerly shear and dry mid-level air. Despite the shear, nearly all of the intensity guidance and the global models gradually deepen the cyclone during the next 24-36 hours and the NHC intensity forecast once again calls for strengthening until the cyclone reaches the coast. Although the NHC intensity forecast again does not explicitly show Barry becoming a hurricane, it is still possible for that to occur before landfall. After that time, steady weakening is expected while the center moves inland. The intensity guidance is in relatively good agreement, and the NHC forecast is in best agreement with the latest HFIP-corrected-consensus model. Barry is moving westward or 275 degrees at about 3 kt. The tropical storm should move slowly westward to west-northwestward around the southern portion of a mid-level ridge tonight and Friday. After that time, a weakness in the ridge should cause Barry to turn northwestward, then northward later in the weekend. The overall track guidance envelope changed little this cycle. The UKMET is still along along the far western side of the envelope, but the 18Z HWRF did shift westward and is closer to the center of the envelope. The NHC forecast track is very close to the previous official forecast, and lies between the GFEX and HCCA consensus models. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach. Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local officials. 2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially along and east of the track of the system. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Residents in these areas should rush their preparations to completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning area by Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 27.9N 89.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 28.0N 89.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 28.5N 90.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 29.5N 91.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 14/0000Z 30.5N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 15/0000Z 33.2N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 16/0000Z 35.7N 91.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/0000Z 38.2N 87.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown |