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| #974596 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 PM 13.Jul.2019) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 ...BARRY MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 92.3W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... The Hurricane Warning for the Louisiana coast has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Louisiana coast has been discontinued east of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Sabine Pass * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to Biloxi * Lake Pontchartrain A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 92.3 West. Barry is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continued tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will move across southern and southwestern Louisiana this evening, through central Louisiana tonight, and through northern Louisiana on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts, and these winds are near the coast to the southeast of the center. Additional weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland, and Barry is forecast to weaken to a depression on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A United State Geological Survey station at Cypremort Point, Louisiana, recently reported sustained winds of 62 mph, while the National Ocean Service station at Eugene Island, Louisiana, reported sustained winds of 55 mph and a wind gust of 72 mph. In addition, the Acadiana Regional Airport in New Iberia, Louisiana, recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph and a wind gust of 61 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over south-central Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area, and these conditions should persist through Sunday morning. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through tonight. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible through tonight across southwest Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southeast Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |