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| #974714 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 AM 14.Jul.2019) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Barry`s radar and satellite presentations have continued to degrade, which is typical for an inland tropical cyclone. However, some curved rain bands producing sustained tropical-storm-force winds still exist over water and along the south-central and southwestern coastal areas of Louisiana. Data from the Ft. Polk WSR-88D radar indicated average Doppler velocity values of 50-59 kt at 11,000-14,000 ft between 0900-1200 UTC this morning over the Gulf of Mexico, which would yield equivalent surface winds of 40-45 kt. Thus, Barry`s intensity was maintained at 40 kt at the 1200 UTC synoptic time. Since then, Doppler velocities have decreased to around 45 kt at 11,000 ft and surface winds of 34 kt have recently been reported at the NOAA NOS site at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana. Therefore, the intensity has been lowered to 35 kt at the 1500 UTC advisory time. The pressure of 1006 mb is based on nearby surface observations. The initial motion estimate is 360/08 kt. Barry is forecast to continue moving northward today and tonight into a break in the subtropical ridge, and turn toward north-northeast and northeast late Monday into Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend of the various simple consensus models and the NOAA HCCA model. Barry will weaken further today as it continues to move inland, and it should become a tropical depression by tonight if not sooner. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours and dissipate on Tuesday over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and the potential for flooding, including river flooding, continues from Louisiana northward through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river flooding are still expected along Barry`s path inland from Louisiana up through the lower Mississippi Valley, through at least Monday. Widespread rainfall of 4 inches or more is expected, with embedded areas of significantly heavier rain that will lead to rapid water rises. 2. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. These conditions could continue along portions of the Louisiana coast for a few more hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 31.8N 93.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/0000Z 32.8N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1200Z 34.2N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0000Z 35.7N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/1200Z 37.4N 91.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart |