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| #974949 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 15.Jul.2019) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Barry Advisory Number 23 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL022019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 ...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARRY DRIFTING INTO MISSOURI... ...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ARKANSAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.7N 92.8W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SE OF SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NNW OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...15 MPH...30 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 26 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Flash Flood Watches are in effect from the ARKLATEX eastward through the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley. Flood Warnings are in effect for portions of far southeast Texas, southern Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for portions of the Louisiana coast. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Barry was located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 92.8 West, or very close to the Arkansas and Missouri border close to Branson, MO. Barry is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and is expected to turn toward the northeast overnight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). Maximum sustained winds are near 15 mph (30 km/h) with higher gusts. Most of the 15 mph sustained winds are well removed from the center, with breezy southeasterly winds near the Mississippi River. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The models forecast Barry to maintain a loosely defined and weak surface circulation through Wednesday night. The circulation will beome increasingly shallow and stretched, and may not survive when it reaches terrain in western Pennsylvania on Thursday. The system should, however, remain capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches across Arkansas, western Tennessee and Kentucky, southeast Missouri, and northwest Mississippi. Rainfall had ended in Texas and Louisiana. Storm total amounts there were generally between 3 and 6 inches, but with embedded swaths of dramatically higher totals. One gauge measured 23.43 inches was made to the north of Lake Charles, Louisiana, near Ragley. TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible Tuesday from southern Arkansas toward the western Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- The next public advisory will be issued at 400 AM CDT. $$ Burke |