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| #978918 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 21.Aug.2019) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 Chantal has changed little since last night. It remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center exposed to the west of the deep convection. The current intensity estimate is held at 35 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Although the shear is forecast to gradually diminish, the system should remain in an environment of dry air at the low- to mid-levels for the next several days. This will likely cause weakening, and Chantal is forecast to become a depression within 48 hours and degenerate into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and only slightly below the model consensus. The motion continues eastward, or 090/17 kt. Chantal is forecast to turn clockwise and decelerate around the periphery of a mid-level anticyclone over the next few days. Later in the period, the cyclone is predicted to drift northward. The official track forecast is close to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus, HCCA, guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 40.2N 51.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 40.0N 48.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 39.2N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 38.1N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 36.9N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 35.5N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 36.0N 43.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1200Z 37.0N 43.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch |