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| #981237 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 05.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes and surface data nearby Dorian indicate that although the central pressure is a little bit lower, and NOAA Doppler weather radar data from Wilmington and Morehead City indicate that winds have decreased as the circulation of the hurricane expands. The initial intensity is now estimated to be 85 kt. Dorian is moving toward higher shear, and gradual weakening is anticipated. As indicated in the previous forecast, extratropical transition should begin in about 48 hours and be complete by 72 hours. However, Dorian is forecast to maintain hurricane-force-winds while moving near or over Nova Scotia. The initial motion is 045 degrees at 11 kt. The hurricane is already embedded in the southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward moving mid-latitude trough. This flow pattern should steer the hurricane on a northeastward track with increasing forward speed. Track guidance continues to be in remarkably good agreement with this solution, and the NHC forecast remains in the middle of the guidance envelope. The current forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory. The center of Dorian is expected to move very near or over the coastline of eastern North Carolina and the southern Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Residents of these areas should already be prepared for damaging winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains. It also appears that Dorian will affect portions of eastern Canada with hurricane-force winds. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian`s core, life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast, portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia overnight. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these areas, where significant, life-threatening flash flooding is expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 33.8N 77.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 35.0N 75.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 37.2N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 40.2N 67.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 44.5N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 52.5N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0000Z 57.5N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |