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| #982772 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:27 AM 18.Sep.2019) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 47.7W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 47.7W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 47.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.8N 49.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.8N 54.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.9N 57.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.2N 64.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.8N 68.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.6N 70.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 47.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS |