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| #984086 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 25.Sep.2019) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...KAREN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 63.6W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 63.6 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A north- northeastward to northeastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Friday. Karen or its remnants are then expected to slow down and make a clockwise loop over the southwestern Atlantic into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches tonight across the Virgin Islands, with isolated storm totals of 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila |