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| #986244 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 14.Oct.2019) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 The depression has become somewhat less organized this evening. A band of deep convection has developed over the far northern portion of the circulation, but there is little convection over the remainder of the large circulation. A recent partial ASCAT-C overpass suggests that the low-level center is located well southwest of the mid-level turning noted in infrared satellite pictures, and although the scatterometer did not sample the entire circulation, it appears that the 30-kt initial intensity may be generous. The depression is moving northwestward (320 degrees) at about 9 kt. While there is a chance that the center will re-form farther north near the mid-level center and area of deep convection, the overall motion of the system is expected to be northwestward during the next day or two around the southwestward periphery of a deep-layer ridge over western Africa. The models are in generally good agreement on this overall scenario, but since the system is still in the formative stage there is a fair amount of cross-track spread. After 48 hours, the cyclone should turn toward the left as it weakens and is steered by the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted north of the previous track, but is not quite as far north as the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus. Deep convection is likely to return overnight during the typical nocturnal convective maximum, and low shear and warm SSTs along the path of the cyclone favor strengthening during the next day or so. The large and sprawling structure of the system, however, suggest any intensification should be slow to occur, and the new NHC intensity forecast has been reduced slightly from the previous advisory. By 36 hours, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler SSTs are expected to cause the cyclone to weaken and the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast most closely follows the statistical SHIPS/LGEM guidance. Regardless of whether the depression becomes a tropical storm or not before passing near the Cabo Verde Islands, the primary threat from this system is the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding in those islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 14.5N 20.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 15.5N 21.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 16.8N 22.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 18.1N 23.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 19.3N 24.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 21.6N 27.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |