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| #987775 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 26.Oct.2019) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 Pablo has changed little in organization since the last advisory. The small cyclone is maintaining an area of banded convection near the center, and there have been occasional appearances of an eye-like feature. Recent scatterometer overpasses show several wind vectors of 40-45 kt, so the initial intensity is nudged upward to 45 kt. The initial motion is now 090/14, a little faster than before. Pablo is expected to turn northeastward during the next few hours, with the small core of the storm passing near or over the eastern Azores tonight. After that, the tropical storm should turn northward and eventually northwestward as it, as well as the surrounding larger low pressure area, become steered by another mid-latitude low pressure area developing over the north central Atlantic. The first 24 h of the new forecast track is adjusted somewhat to the east of the previous track based on the initial position and motion, with only small changes made thereafter. The new track lies near the various consensus models. Little significant change in strength is expected during the next 24 h or so while Pablo moves through an environment that is unstable enough to support deep convection. After that time, colder sea surface temperatures, increasing shear, and a developing frontal zone near the cyclone should lead to the system becoming extratropical. The global models continue to forecast the system to merge with the mid-latitude low to the west between 48-72 h, so the intensity forecast shows dissipation during that time. Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 35.2N 28.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 37.4N 25.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 40.8N 22.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 43.5N 21.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 28/1200Z 45.3N 21.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |