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| #987805 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 PM 26.Oct.2019) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 PM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 Pablo has become a little better organized during the past several hours, with a small eye becoming somewhat better defined. However, the various satellite intensity estimates have remained near 45 kt. Based on the increased organization since the the 40-45 kt winds seen in earlier scatterometer data, the initial intensity is now set at 50 kt. Pablo has turned northeastward and accelerated, with the initial motion now 055/22. This motion should bring the small core of the storm near or over the eastern Azores during the next several hours. After that, the tropical storm should turn northward and eventually northwestward as a developing mid-latitude low to the west becomes the dominant steering mechanism. The guidance has shifted a bit to the east since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to, but east of, the previous forecast. Pablo should slow weaken as it moves into an environment of colder sea surface temperatures and increasing shear, and a developing frontal zone near the cyclone should lead to the system becoming extratropical by 36 h. The global models continue to forecast the system to merge with the mid-latitude low to the west between 48-72 h, so the intensity forecast again shows dissipation during that time. Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 36.3N 25.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 39.3N 22.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 42.7N 20.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 44.9N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 28/1800Z 46.3N 21.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |