Show Area Forecast Discussion - Brownsville, TX (Brownsville, TX Area) Selection: |
#1174443 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:45 PM 28.Mar.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 239 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 A quasi-zonal flow with a shortwave ridge axis anchored to the west of our CWA will prevail through the short-term forecast period. This will maintain the overall dry and tranquil synoptic pattern. The one and only concern will be the winds. The gradient flow from the southeast will increase, especially during the day on Fri, in response to lowering pressures east of the Rockies. The model trends have continued to back off on the potential for a wind advisory for portions of the CWA on Fri. Used a mix of the NBM experimental, NBM operational, and CONSMOS for winds on Fri. Although wind gusts between 30 and 35 mph will be quite common through most of the daytime, especially across the Lower and Mid Valley regions, believe there will not be sufficient 40 mph+ wind gusts at this time to warrant a Wind Advisory on Fri. DESI NBM probabilities have shifted downward to 10-20% except for a very small area of 40-50% near the Santa Maria/Los Indios area. Later shifts will need to monitor as it will be close to Wind Advisory criteria for the Lower and Mid Valley regions on Fri. Otherwise, a continued warming trend is expected given the established return flow setup. Blended temperature guidance was very reasonable and generally leaned in this direction. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 I will focus on the main hazard issues this period. One hazard/ concern will be wind. Gulf of Mexico high pressure will interact with lower pressure over the southern High Plains and North Central Mexico to create an enhanced (tighter) pressure gradient. As a result, strong southeast winds will develop Saturday through Monday, producing windy days, especially along the coast. The winds may reach wind advisory criteria on Monday for the Lower Valley. Rip current risk will be at least moderate through the weekend, and may edge up to high on Monday, and again on Tuesday due to a favorable northeast wind direction. In addition, fire weather concerns (i.e. the threat of enhanced wildfire growth and spread) will increase. The nexus of stronger winds and lower relative humidity values will create fire danger concerns for a few hours Monday afternoon. This threat will spread in coverage across most of the CWA from mid Tuesday morning to mid Tuesday afternoon as breezy northwest winds interact with drier air behind a cold front. Speaking of which...a cold front will arrive late Monday night or early Tuesday. Monday will already be the warmest day of the long term, but potential downsloping off of the neighboring higher terrain of Mexico may produce a local heat spike. Monday high temps will range from near 90 east to a skosh above the century mark for the Upper Valley/RGV Plains. The models may be slowing the front a skosh, bringing it through to the coast Tuesday at dawn or slightly later (mid morning). Temps will still be on the above average side on Tuesday, but will trend back down to near normal Wednesday through Thursday. Along and behind the cold front will be a brief window for precip, though not a slam dunk opportunity. In fact, the NBM is not convinced about even low end pop chances. The GFS guidance for Brownsville is running 5 to 10 percent "hotter" (higher rain probability), but the numbers are still not eye-popping. A low end rain chance will occur late Tuesday through Thursday in what will be a weak overrunning pattern. Again, based on low NBM pops, QPF amounts will remain negligible. A low latitude cut-off low will eject late in the forecast, from North Mexico toward Central Texas, with mid level energy enhancing at least marine rain chances on Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours across the TAF locations in the Rio Grande Valley. However, there will be SCT-BKN cumulus that develops generally between 3500 and 4000 feet after 14Z Fri. Also, southeast wind gusts between 30 and 35 kts will be possible around the same timeframe as the increase in cloud cover. This will be all due to a tightening pressure gradient as pressures fall east of the Rockies in advance of the next storm system. && .MARINE... Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Tonight through Friday night...Went ahead an issued a Small Craft Advisory for the Laguna Madre beginning at 16Z Fri and through 01Z Sat given the tightening southeasterly gradient flow. More borderline SCA conditions for the nearshore waters north of Port Mansfield during this same timeframe. Caution conditions will prevail across the remainder of the coastal waters on Fri/Fri night. Seas will continue to slowly respond and build to 5-7 feet by Fri night due to the moderate to occasionally strong southeast flow. Saturday through Tuesday night...Persistent Gulf high pressure interacting with lower pressure over the southern High Plains, and to some extent lower pressures over North Central Mexico, will keep a tighter pressure gradient in place over the Lower Texas coastal waters through Monday. A cold front will move through late Monday or early Tuesday and will shift winds to northwest as high pressure spreads across the region. Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds and moderate to high seas will be the rule most of the early long term. Moderate to fresh winds will carry over from Friday night into Saturday and will persist all the way through Monday. A cold front will push through late Monday or early Tuesday, bringing moderate to fresh northwest to north winds. Overall, small craft should exercise caution conditions will be common to continuous through the period. Low end small craft advisory conditions may additionally develop from time to time due to enhanced winds and/or seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 64 83 68 81 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 61 83 65 84 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 64 85 67 87 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 62 87 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 75 69 75 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 82 66 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for GMZ130- 132-135. && $$ |
#1174429 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:38 PM 28.Mar.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1222 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 A dry and tranquil weather pattern is expected to continue through the short term forecast period as influences from a high pressure system remains in place. Gusty southerly winds will be the main show in town on Friday as the surface pressure gradient tightens over the region. Forecast models have backed off on the strength in winds on Friday from the past 24 hours, keeping expected wind gusts (30-40 mph) just under Advisory levels. Sampled low level jet (850 mb) winds range between 20-30 kts. Will allow for the day shift to further evaluate future computer runs to see whether or not an Advisory is needed. Regardless, Friday will still feature breezy conditions with south-southeast winds 20-30 mph gusting up to 40 mph. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the short term period. Daytime high temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 80s (cooler along/near the coast). Overnight low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s (warmer along/near the coast). Finally, highs on Friday are expected to be in the low to mid 80s (cooler along/near the coast). && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 The main concern in this portion of the total forecast continues to be wind. Gulf of Mexico high pressure will interact with low pressure over inland Mexico to create an enhanced pressure gradient, with this gradient anticipated to be the strongest on Monday. As a result, a WIND ADVISORY will possibly be needed on this day for the three immediate coastal counties (Cameron, Willacy, Kenedy). Otherwise, the only other notable event during the period will be the Monday night passage of a cold front. In advance of the front, winds downsloping off of the neighboring higher terrain of Mexico will produce a heat spike, and well above normal high temperatures are a distinct possibility for Monday. Finally, with a breezy to windy onshore flow forecast, there will likely be a MODERATE RISK to HIGH RISK of rip currents at the local beaches for the long term forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours across the TAF locations in the Rio Grande Valley. However, there will be SCT-BKN cumulus that develops generally between 3500 and 4000 feet after 14Z Fri. Also, southeast wind gusts between 30 and 35 kts will be possible around the same timeframe as the increase in cloud cover. This will be all due to a tightening pressure gradient as pressures fall east of the Rockies in advance of the next storm system. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 With high pressure in place today, light winds will yield light to moderate seas and overall favorable marine conditions. Tonight into Friday, a strengthening pressure gradient will generate moderate winds which ultimately will yield moderate seas and more adverse marine conditions. Small craft may need to exercise caution during the day on Friday. (Friday Night through Wednesday) An enhanced pressure gradient will exist over the western Gulf of Mexico during a majority of the period courtesy of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico interacting with low pressure over inland Mexico. Breezy to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast, with Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory likely to be needed. For the remainder of the period, the Monday night or early Tuesday morning passage of a cold front may produce another burst of Caution or Advisory level winds/seas in its wake. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 83 64 80 68 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 85 61 82 64 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 87 63 84 67 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 87 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 68 73 69 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 64 78 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
#1174399 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:17 AM 28.Mar.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 603 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 A dry and tranquil weather pattern is expected to continue through the short term forecast period as influences from a high pressure system remains in place. Gusty southerly winds will be the main show in town on Friday as the surface pressure gradient tightens over the region. Forecast models have backed off on the strength in winds on Friday from the past 24 hours, keeping expected wind gusts (30-40 mph) just under Advisory levels. Sampled low level jet (850 mb) winds range between 20-30 kts. Will allow for the day shift to further evaluate future computer runs to see whether or not an Advisory is needed. Regardless, Friday will still feature breezy conditions with south-southeast winds 20-30 mph gusting up to 40 mph. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the short term period. Daytime high temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 80s (cooler along/near the coast). Overnight low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s (warmer along/near the coast). Finally, highs on Friday are expected to be in the low to mid 80s (cooler along/near the coast). && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 The main concern in this portion of the total forecast continues to be wind. Gulf of Mexico high pressure will interact with low pressure over inland Mexico to create an enhanced pressure gradient, with this gradient anticipated to be the strongest on Monday. As a result, a WIND ADVISORY will possibly be needed on this day for the three immediate coastal counties (Cameron, Willacy, Kenedy). Otherwise, the only other notable event during the period will be the Monday night passage of a cold front. In advance of the front, winds downsloping off of the neighboring higher terrain of Mexico will produce a heat spike, and well above normal high temperatures are a distinct possibility for Monday. Finally, with a breezy to windy onshore flow forecast, there will likely be a MODERATE RISK to HIGH RISK of rip currents at the local beaches for the long term forecast period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Through 12z Friday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the 12z TAF cycle under sunny skies with maybe a few cirrus clouds at times as a surface high pressure system remains in control over the region. Light and variable to calm winds will shift out of the southeast between 5-15 kts today. Winds are expected to strengthen tonight as the pressure gradient begins to tighten across the region. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 With high pressure in place today, light winds will yield light to moderate seas and overall favorable marine conditions. Tonight into Friday, a strengthening pressure gradient will generate moderate winds which ultimately will yield moderate seas and more adverse marine conditions. Small craft may need to exercise caution during the day on Friday. (Friday Night through Wednesday) An enhanced pressure gradient will exist over the western Gulf of Mexico during a majority of the period courtesy of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico interacting with low pressure over inland Mexico. Breezy to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast, with Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory likely to be needed. For the remainder of the period, the Monday night or early Tuesday morning passage of a cold front may produce another burst of Caution or Advisory level winds/seas in its wake. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 83 64 80 68 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 85 61 82 64 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 87 63 84 67 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 87 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 68 73 69 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 64 78 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
#1174390 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:44 AM 28.Mar.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 431 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 A dry and tranquil weather pattern is expected to continue through the short term forecast period as influences from a high pressure system remains in place. Gusty southerly winds will be the main show in town on Friday as the surface pressure gradient tightens over the region. Forecast models have backed off on the strength in winds on Friday from the past 24 hours, keeping expected wind gusts (30-40 mph) just under Advisory levels. Sampled low level jet (850 mb) winds range between 20-30 kts. Will allow for the day shift to further evaluate future computer runs to see whether or not an Advisory is needed. Regardless, Friday will still feature breezy conditions with south-southeast winds 20-30 mph gusting up to 40 mph. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the short term period. Daytime high temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 80s (cooler along/near the coast). Overnight low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s (warmer along/near the coast). Finally, highs on Friday are expected to be in the low to mid 80s (cooler along/near the coast). && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 The main concern in this portion of the total forecast continues to be wind. Gulf of Mexico high pressure will interact with low pressure over inland Mexico to create an enhanced pressure gradient, with this gradient anticipated to be the strongest on Monday. As a result, a WIND ADVISORY will possibly be needed on this day for the three immediate coastal counties (Cameron, Willacy, Kenedy). Otherwise, the only other notable event during the period will be the Monday night passage of a cold front. In advance of the front, winds downsloping off of the neighboring higher terrain of Mexico will produce a heat spike, and well above normal high temperatures are a distinct possibility for Monday. Finally, with a breezy to windy onshore flow forecast, there will likely be a MODERATE RISK to HIGH RISK of rip currents at the local beaches for the long term forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Through 06z Friday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the 06z TAF cycle under sunny skies with maybe a few cirrus clouds at times as a surface high pressure system remains in control over the region. Winds will be out of the east tonight at around 5 kts if not light and variable. On Thursday, winds will shift out of the southeast between 5-15 kts. Winds could begin strengthening Thursday night as the pressure gradient begins to tighten across the region. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 With high pressure in place today, light winds will yield light to moderate seas and overall favorable marine conditions. Tonight into Friday, a strengthening pressure gradient will generate moderate winds which ultimately will yield moderate seas and more adverse marine conditions. Small craft may need to exercise caution during the day on Friday. (Friday Night through Wednesday) An enhanced pressure gradient will exist over the western Gulf of Mexico during a majority of the period courtesy of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico interacting with low pressure over inland Mexico. Breezy to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast, with Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory likely to be needed. For the remainder of the period, the Monday night or early Tuesday morning passage of a cold front may produce another burst of Caution or Advisory level winds/seas in its wake. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 83 64 80 68 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 85 61 82 64 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 87 63 84 67 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 87 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 68 73 69 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 64 78 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
#1174361 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 AM 28.Mar.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1216 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 High pressure will remain in control as ridging builds in from the west. This will result in quiet short term weather. Skies will be mostly clear tonight with light winds. Patchy, light fog may develop across some inland and low lying areas late tonight, but the model signal is not strong, and no fog is being carried in the present weather grids. Low temps tonight will be mainly in the 50s, warming to near 60 Thursday night. High temps on Thursday will be in the lower to mid 80s with a few low clouds. The forecasted temps will start out slightly cooler than normal but will trend to near normal after tonight, especially Thursday into Thursday night as southeast winds steady up. Rip current risk will stay moderate as wave heights are still in that range and we are still close to a full moon. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Upper level ridging looks to strengthen over the weekend across the central US. At the same time, a deepening upper level trough off the west coast will gradually make its way to the desert southwest by Monday. At the surface, low pressure developing over the Central Plains will interact with a high pressure system over southeastern US and northern Gulf, resulting in tightening pressure gradients across eastern Texas. This will likely support stronger winds on Friday, possibly necessitating Wind Advisories for eastern portions of Deep South Texas. As the upper level trough approaches on Monday, another surface low looks to develop over the central plains. This will again support tightening pressure gradients and stronger winds Monday, possibly necessitating Wind Advisories for portions of Deep South Texas. As the surface low moves further east, a cold front associated with that system will drop south, likely moving through Deep South Texas Tuesday. Drier air and stronger winds behind the front could combine to create elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures look to steadily increase this weekend. High temperatures across most of Deep South Texas in will be in the low to mid 80s Friday, climbing to the mid 90s to around 100 by Monday. Temperatures only look to reach the low to mid 90s Tuesday with the passage of the cold front, and return to the low to mid 80s Wednesday. Likewise low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s Friday night look to climb to the low 70s by Monday night, before falling back to the low to mid 60s behind the front Tuesday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Through 06z Friday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the 06z TAF cycle under sunny skies with maybe a few cirrus clouds at times as a surface high pressure system remains in control over the region. Winds will be out of the east tonight at around 5 kts if not light and variable. On Thursday, winds will shift out of the southeast between 5-15 kts. Winds could begin strengthening Thursday night as the pressure gradient begins to tighten across the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Tonight through Thursday night...High pressure will continue to dominate. Moderate to fresh winds this evening will become light southeast late tonight. Moderate southeast winds and moderate seas will prevail on Thursday with winds becoming moderate to fresh. Thursday night. Small craft may need to exercise caution at times. Friday through next Wednesday...Surface high pressure over the Northern Gulf will support southeasterly to southerly winds through the weekend. Tightening pressure gradients on Friday will likely promote stronger winds along the Laguna Madre and coastal Gulf waters Friday afternoon, likely necessitating Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories. Elevated winds look to continue over the weekend, possibly requiring additional Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories, mainly in the afternoons. Tightening pressure gradients again on Monday will likely support stronger winds through the day, possibly requiring a low end Small Craft Advisory. The passage of a cold front on Tuesday will bring a northerly wind shift, with stronger winds behind the front potentially requiring additional Small Craft Advisories Tuesday night. Predominately moderate seas look to persist through the period, with higher seas building briefly Friday and Monday in the presence of stronger winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 64 79 68 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 83 60 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 85 63 85 67 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 85 60 87 65 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 67 74 68 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 64 78 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |