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#1174443 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:45 PM 28.Mar.2024)
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
239 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

A quasi-zonal flow with a shortwave ridge axis anchored to the
west of our CWA will prevail through the short-term forecast
period. This will maintain the overall dry and tranquil synoptic
pattern. The one and only concern will be the winds. The gradient
flow from the southeast will increase, especially during the day
on Fri, in response to lowering pressures east of the Rockies. The
model trends have continued to back off on the potential for a
wind advisory for portions of the CWA on Fri. Used a mix of the
NBM experimental, NBM operational, and CONSMOS for winds on Fri.
Although wind gusts between 30 and 35 mph will be quite common
through most of the daytime, especially across the Lower and Mid
Valley regions, believe there will not be sufficient 40 mph+ wind
gusts at this time to warrant a Wind Advisory on Fri. DESI NBM
probabilities have shifted downward to 10-20% except for a very
small area of 40-50% near the Santa Maria/Los Indios area. Later
shifts will need to monitor as it will be close to Wind Advisory
criteria for the Lower and Mid Valley regions on Fri. Otherwise, a
continued warming trend is expected given the established return
flow setup. Blended temperature guidance was very reasonable and
generally leaned in this direction.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

I will focus on the main hazard issues this period. One hazard/
concern will be wind. Gulf of Mexico high pressure will interact
with lower pressure over the southern High Plains and North
Central Mexico to create an enhanced (tighter) pressure gradient.
As a result, strong southeast winds will develop Saturday through
Monday, producing windy days, especially along the coast. The
winds may reach wind advisory criteria on Monday for the Lower
Valley. Rip current risk will be at least moderate through the
weekend, and may edge up to high on Monday, and again on Tuesday
due to a favorable northeast wind direction.

In addition, fire weather concerns (i.e. the threat of enhanced
wildfire growth and spread) will increase. The nexus of stronger
winds and lower relative humidity values will create fire danger
concerns for a few hours Monday afternoon. This threat will spread
in coverage across most of the CWA from mid Tuesday morning to
mid Tuesday afternoon as breezy northwest winds interact with
drier air behind a cold front.

Speaking of which...a cold front will arrive late Monday night or
early Tuesday. Monday will already be the warmest day of the long
term, but potential downsloping off of the neighboring higher
terrain of Mexico may produce a local heat spike. Monday high
temps will range from near 90 east to a skosh above the century
mark for the Upper Valley/RGV Plains. The models may be slowing
the front a skosh, bringing it through to the coast Tuesday at
dawn or slightly later (mid morning). Temps will still be on the
above average side on Tuesday, but will trend back down to near
normal Wednesday through Thursday.

Along and behind the cold front will be a brief window for
precip, though not a slam dunk opportunity. In fact, the NBM is
not convinced about even low end pop chances. The GFS guidance for
Brownsville is running 5 to 10 percent "hotter" (higher rain
probability), but the numbers are still not eye-popping. A low
end rain chance will occur late Tuesday through Thursday in what
will be a weak overrunning pattern. Again, based on low NBM pops,
QPF amounts will remain negligible. A low latitude cut-off low
will eject late in the forecast, from North Mexico toward Central
Texas, with mid level energy enhancing at least marine rain
chances on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours across the
TAF locations in the Rio Grande Valley. However, there will be
SCT-BKN cumulus that develops generally between 3500 and 4000 feet
after 14Z Fri. Also, southeast wind gusts between 30 and 35 kts
will be possible around the same timeframe as the increase in
cloud cover. This will be all due to a tightening pressure
gradient as pressures fall east of the Rockies in advance of the
next storm system.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Tonight through Friday night...Went ahead an issued a Small Craft
Advisory for the Laguna Madre beginning at 16Z Fri and through
01Z Sat given the tightening southeasterly gradient flow. More
borderline SCA conditions for the nearshore waters north of Port
Mansfield during this same timeframe. Caution conditions will
prevail across the remainder of the coastal waters on Fri/Fri
night. Seas will continue to slowly respond and build to 5-7 feet
by Fri night due to the moderate to occasionally strong southeast
flow.

Saturday through Tuesday night...Persistent Gulf high pressure
interacting with lower pressure over the southern High Plains, and
to some extent lower pressures over North Central Mexico, will
keep a tighter pressure gradient in place over the Lower Texas
coastal waters through Monday. A cold front will move through late
Monday or early Tuesday and will shift winds to northwest as high
pressure spreads across the region. Moderate to fresh southeast
to south winds and moderate to high seas will be the rule most of
the early long term. Moderate to fresh winds will carry over from
Friday night into Saturday and will persist all the way through
Monday. A cold front will push through late Monday or early
Tuesday, bringing moderate to fresh northwest to north winds.
Overall, small craft should exercise caution conditions will be
common to continuous through the period. Low end small craft
advisory conditions may additionally develop from time to time due
to enhanced winds and/or seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 64 83 68 81 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 61 83 65 84 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 64 85 67 87 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 62 87 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 75 69 75 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 82 66 80 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for GMZ130-
132-135.

&&

$$
#1174429 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:38 PM 28.Mar.2024)
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1222 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

A dry and tranquil weather pattern is expected to continue through
the short term forecast period as influences from a high pressure
system remains in place. Gusty southerly winds will be the main show
in town on Friday as the surface pressure gradient tightens over the
region. Forecast models have backed off on the strength in winds on
Friday from the past 24 hours, keeping expected wind gusts (30-40
mph) just under Advisory levels. Sampled low level jet (850 mb)
winds range between 20-30 kts. Will allow for the day shift to
further evaluate future computer runs to see whether or not an
Advisory is needed. Regardless, Friday will still feature breezy
conditions with south-southeast winds 20-30 mph gusting up to 40
mph.

Temperatures will remain seasonable through the short term period.
Daytime high temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 80s
(cooler along/near the coast). Overnight low temperatures tonight
will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s (warmer along/near the coast).
Finally, highs on Friday are expected to be in the low to mid 80s
(cooler along/near the coast).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

The main concern in this portion of the total forecast continues
to be wind. Gulf of Mexico high pressure will interact with low
pressure over inland Mexico to create an enhanced pressure
gradient, with this gradient anticipated to be the strongest on
Monday. As a result, a WIND ADVISORY will possibly be needed on
this day for the three immediate coastal counties (Cameron,
Willacy, Kenedy).

Otherwise, the only other notable event during the period will be
the Monday night passage of a cold front. In advance of the
front, winds downsloping off of the neighboring higher terrain of
Mexico will produce a heat spike, and well above normal high
temperatures are a distinct possibility for Monday.

Finally, with a breezy to windy onshore flow forecast, there will
likely be a MODERATE RISK to HIGH RISK of rip currents at the
local beaches for the long term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours across the
TAF locations in the Rio Grande Valley. However, there will be
SCT-BKN cumulus that develops generally between 3500 and 4000 feet
after 14Z Fri. Also, southeast wind gusts between 30 and 35 kts
will be possible around the same timeframe as the increase in
cloud cover. This will be all due to a tightening pressure
gradient as pressures fall east of the Rockies in advance of the
next storm system.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

With high pressure in place today, light winds will yield light
to moderate seas and overall favorable marine conditions. Tonight
into Friday, a strengthening pressure gradient will generate
moderate winds which ultimately will yield moderate seas and more
adverse marine conditions. Small craft may need to exercise
caution during the day on Friday.

(Friday Night through Wednesday)
An enhanced pressure gradient will exist over the western Gulf of
Mexico during a majority of the period courtesy of high pressure
over the Gulf of Mexico interacting with low pressure over inland
Mexico. Breezy to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will
prevail along the Lower Texas Coast, with Small Craft Exercise
Caution and Small Craft Advisory likely to be needed. For the
remainder of the period, the Monday night or early Tuesday morning
passage of a cold front may produce another burst of Caution or
Advisory level winds/seas in its wake.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 83 64 80 68 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 85 61 82 64 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 87 63 84 67 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 87 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 68 73 69 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 64 78 66 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$
#1174399 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:17 AM 28.Mar.2024)
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
603 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

A dry and tranquil weather pattern is expected to continue through
the short term forecast period as influences from a high pressure
system remains in place. Gusty southerly winds will be the main show
in town on Friday as the surface pressure gradient tightens over the
region. Forecast models have backed off on the strength in winds on
Friday from the past 24 hours, keeping expected wind gusts (30-40
mph) just under Advisory levels. Sampled low level jet (850 mb)
winds range between 20-30 kts. Will allow for the day shift to
further evaluate future computer runs to see whether or not an
Advisory is needed. Regardless, Friday will still feature breezy
conditions with south-southeast winds 20-30 mph gusting up to 40
mph.

Temperatures will remain seasonable through the short term period.
Daytime high temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 80s
(cooler along/near the coast). Overnight low temperatures tonight
will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s (warmer along/near the coast).
Finally, highs on Friday are expected to be in the low to mid 80s
(cooler along/near the coast).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

The main concern in this portion of the total forecast continues
to be wind. Gulf of Mexico high pressure will interact with low
pressure over inland Mexico to create an enhanced pressure
gradient, with this gradient anticipated to be the strongest on
Monday. As a result, a WIND ADVISORY will possibly be needed on
this day for the three immediate coastal counties (Cameron,
Willacy, Kenedy).

Otherwise, the only other notable event during the period will be
the Monday night passage of a cold front. In advance of the
front, winds downsloping off of the neighboring higher terrain of
Mexico will produce a heat spike, and well above normal high
temperatures are a distinct possibility for Monday.

Finally, with a breezy to windy onshore flow forecast, there will
likely be a MODERATE RISK to HIGH RISK of rip currents at the
local beaches for the long term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Through 12z Friday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout the 12z TAF cycle under sunny skies with maybe a few
cirrus clouds at times as a surface high pressure system remains in
control over the region.

Light and variable to calm winds will shift out of the southeast
between 5-15 kts today. Winds are expected to strengthen tonight
as the pressure gradient begins to tighten across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

With high pressure in place today, light winds will yield light
to moderate seas and overall favorable marine conditions. Tonight
into Friday, a strengthening pressure gradient will generate
moderate winds which ultimately will yield moderate seas and more
adverse marine conditions. Small craft may need to exercise
caution during the day on Friday.

(Friday Night through Wednesday)
An enhanced pressure gradient will exist over the western Gulf of
Mexico during a majority of the period courtesy of high pressure
over the Gulf of Mexico interacting with low pressure over inland
Mexico. Breezy to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will
prevail along the Lower Texas Coast, with Small Craft Exercise
Caution and Small Craft Advisory likely to be needed. For the
remainder of the period, the Monday night or early Tuesday morning
passage of a cold front may produce another burst of Caution or
Advisory level winds/seas in its wake.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 83 64 80 68 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 85 61 82 64 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 87 63 84 67 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 87 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 68 73 69 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 64 78 66 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$
#1174390 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:44 AM 28.Mar.2024)
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
431 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

A dry and tranquil weather pattern is expected to continue through
the short term forecast period as influences from a high pressure
system remains in place. Gusty southerly winds will be the main show
in town on Friday as the surface pressure gradient tightens over the
region. Forecast models have backed off on the strength in winds on
Friday from the past 24 hours, keeping expected wind gusts (30-40
mph) just under Advisory levels. Sampled low level jet (850 mb)
winds range between 20-30 kts. Will allow for the day shift to
further evaluate future computer runs to see whether or not an
Advisory is needed. Regardless, Friday will still feature breezy
conditions with south-southeast winds 20-30 mph gusting up to 40
mph.

Temperatures will remain seasonable through the short term period.
Daytime high temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 80s
(cooler along/near the coast). Overnight low temperatures tonight
will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s (warmer along/near the coast).
Finally, highs on Friday are expected to be in the low to mid 80s
(cooler along/near the coast).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

The main concern in this portion of the total forecast continues
to be wind. Gulf of Mexico high pressure will interact with low
pressure over inland Mexico to create an enhanced pressure
gradient, with this gradient anticipated to be the strongest on
Monday. As a result, a WIND ADVISORY will possibly be needed on
this day for the three immediate coastal counties (Cameron,
Willacy, Kenedy).

Otherwise, the only other notable event during the period will be
the Monday night passage of a cold front. In advance of the
front, winds downsloping off of the neighboring higher terrain of
Mexico will produce a heat spike, and well above normal high
temperatures are a distinct possibility for Monday.

Finally, with a breezy to windy onshore flow forecast, there will
likely be a MODERATE RISK to HIGH RISK of rip currents at the
local beaches for the long term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Through 06z Friday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout the 06z TAF cycle under sunny skies with maybe a few
cirrus clouds at times as a surface high pressure system remains in
control over the region.

Winds will be out of the east tonight at around 5 kts if not light
and variable. On Thursday, winds will shift out of the southeast
between 5-15 kts. Winds could begin strengthening Thursday night as
the pressure gradient begins to tighten across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

With high pressure in place today, light winds will yield light
to moderate seas and overall favorable marine conditions. Tonight
into Friday, a strengthening pressure gradient will generate
moderate winds which ultimately will yield moderate seas and more
adverse marine conditions. Small craft may need to exercise
caution during the day on Friday.

(Friday Night through Wednesday)
An enhanced pressure gradient will exist over the western Gulf of
Mexico during a majority of the period courtesy of high pressure
over the Gulf of Mexico interacting with low pressure over inland
Mexico. Breezy to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will
prevail along the Lower Texas Coast, with Small Craft Exercise
Caution and Small Craft Advisory likely to be needed. For the
remainder of the period, the Monday night or early Tuesday morning
passage of a cold front may produce another burst of Caution or
Advisory level winds/seas in its wake.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 83 64 80 68 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 85 61 82 64 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 87 63 84 67 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 87 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 68 73 69 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 64 78 66 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$
#1174361 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 AM 28.Mar.2024)
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1216 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

High pressure will remain in control as ridging builds in from the
west. This will result in quiet short term weather. Skies will be
mostly clear tonight with light winds. Patchy, light fog may develop
across some inland and low lying areas late tonight, but the model
signal is not strong, and no fog is being carried in the present
weather grids. Low temps tonight will be mainly in the 50s, warming
to near 60 Thursday night. High temps on Thursday will be in the
lower to mid 80s with a few low clouds. The forecasted temps will
start out slightly cooler than normal but will trend to near normal
after tonight, especially Thursday into Thursday night as southeast
winds steady up. Rip current risk will stay moderate as wave heights
are still in that range and we are still close to a full moon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Upper level ridging looks to strengthen over the weekend across
the central US. At the same time, a deepening upper level trough
off the west coast will gradually make its way to the desert
southwest by Monday.

At the surface, low pressure developing over the Central Plains
will interact with a high pressure system over southeastern US and
northern Gulf, resulting in tightening pressure gradients across
eastern Texas. This will likely support stronger winds on Friday,
possibly necessitating Wind Advisories for eastern portions of
Deep South Texas.

As the upper level trough approaches on Monday, another surface
low looks to develop over the central plains. This will again
support tightening pressure gradients and stronger winds Monday,
possibly necessitating Wind Advisories for portions of Deep South
Texas. As the surface low moves further east, a cold front
associated with that system will drop south, likely moving through
Deep South Texas Tuesday. Drier air and stronger winds behind the
front could combine to create elevated fire weather conditions
Tuesday afternoon.

Temperatures look to steadily increase this weekend. High
temperatures across most of Deep South Texas in will be in the low
to mid 80s Friday, climbing to the mid 90s to around 100 by
Monday. Temperatures only look to reach the low to mid 90s Tuesday
with the passage of the cold front, and return to the low to mid
80s Wednesday. Likewise low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s
Friday night look to climb to the low 70s by Monday night, before
falling back to the low to mid 60s behind the front Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Through 06z Friday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout the 06z TAF cycle under sunny skies with maybe a few
cirrus clouds at times as a surface high pressure system remains in
control over the region.

Winds will be out of the east tonight at around 5 kts if not light
and variable. On Thursday, winds will shift out of the southeast
between 5-15 kts. Winds could begin strengthening Thursday night as
the pressure gradient begins to tighten across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Tonight through Thursday night...High pressure will continue to
dominate. Moderate to fresh winds this evening will become light
southeast late tonight. Moderate southeast winds and moderate seas
will prevail on Thursday with winds becoming moderate to fresh.
Thursday night. Small craft may need to exercise caution at times.

Friday through next Wednesday...Surface high pressure over the
Northern Gulf will support southeasterly to southerly winds
through the weekend. Tightening pressure gradients on Friday will
likely promote stronger winds along the Laguna Madre and coastal
Gulf waters Friday afternoon, likely necessitating Small Craft
Should Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories.
Elevated winds look to continue over the weekend, possibly
requiring additional Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines
or Small Craft Advisories, mainly in the afternoons. Tightening
pressure gradients again on Monday will likely support stronger
winds through the day, possibly requiring a low end Small Craft
Advisory. The passage of a cold front on Tuesday will bring a
northerly wind shift, with stronger winds behind the front
potentially requiring additional Small Craft Advisories Tuesday
night. Predominately moderate seas look to persist through the
period, with higher seas building briefly Friday and Monday in the
presence of stronger winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 80 64 79 68 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 83 60 82 65 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 85 63 85 67 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 85 60 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 67 74 68 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 64 78 66 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$