Show Area Forecast Discussion - Key West, FL (Florida Keys) Selection: |
#1174435 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 PM 28.Mar.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 237 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 154 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Windy conditions continue this evening as an earlier cold front slowly leaves the forecast area with sustained winds near 20 mph and gusts of near 30 mph. These winds will persist through the overnight hours before diminishing around tomorrow morning. The high-level clouds associated with the front are still sitting along the island chain as well, but there has been some sunshine making it through small breaks in the clouds. Once this cold front completely clears the forecast area tonight, skies will clear up and the relatively cooler air will put overnight lows tonight in the upper 60s and afternoon highs tomorrow in the upper 70s. A stretch of quiet and dry weather settles in for the weekend and into the start of next week. Skies will see a mix of sun and clouds, and breezes of about 10 to 15 mph will prevail. Afternoon highs will range from the lower to mid 80s. Looking ahead, the next push of active weather currently looks to occur on Thursday. Since that is still a week away, there is little to no confidence behind any of the finer details related to the conditions that this push will bring. && .MARINE... Issued at 154 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Strong to near gale breezes continue to turn northwesterly to northerly tonight, prevailing through the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning while turning to the northeast. As a result, the Small Craft Advisory is still in effect through tomorrow morning. Breezes diminish and veer to an easterly direction over the course of tomorrow afternoon and evening, and will prevail out of the east and southeast over the weekend and into the start of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 154 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 A cold front pushing through the Florida Keys island chain will result in a brief bout of sub VFR CIGs at the terminals. Thereafter, quickly clearing skies will result in VFR conditions with nil rain chances through the TAF period. Near-surface winds out of the west to northwest will clock around to the northwest to north overnight, then to the north to northeast by tomorrow morning. Winds through 09z will be sustained 15 to 20 knots, with occasional gusts 25 to 30 knots, only slightly slackening thereafter. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 67 78 68 79 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 67 80 69 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ |
#1174418 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 28.Mar.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1042 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1035 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 The worst of the thunderstorm activity has diminished as the leading edge of a cold front has already pushed through, but some light showers and strong breezes remain. Showers diminish over the next few hours, but the strong breezes will prevail through the rest of today and into tomorrow morning. Current temperatures from surface observations are reflecting the cooler air from the cold front, reading in the upper 70s. Satellite obs show the cloud shield associated with the front slowly tracking through the forecast area, so the sun should be able to make an appearance later this afternoon. The rest of the forecast is still on track, so there are no changes being made at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1035 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Strong to near gale breezes out of the south to southwest veer to the west and northwest throughout the day as a cold front is exiting the forecast area. The worst of the thunderstorm activity is out of the marine area, but lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms remain in the cold fronts wake. Moisture tapers off into the afternoon hours, but the strong to near gale breezes remain in place. As a result, the Small Craft Advisory is in effect until tomorrow morning. Breezes diminish and veer to an easterly direction over the course of tomorrow afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will slowly wane over the next several hours at the terminals. The primary impact from these showers will be gusty crosswinds out of the south, occasionally approaching 30 knots. As the cold front pushes through this afternoon, winds will clock around to the northwest to north, becoming sustained near 20 knots, with frequent gusts 25 to 30 knots under VFR conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 68 79 71 81 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 69 80 71 79 / 10 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ |
#1174386 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 AM 28.Mar.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 431 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 An active morning as a line of pre-frontal showers and thunderstorms has moved into the outer Gulf and westernmost Straits of Florida waters. Last night`s sounding showed multiple pockets of dry air above the surface and sure enough this line is essentially choking on the dry air. This a double-edge sword however as the dry air is allowing for the efficient mixing of momentum. Prior to this line entering our waters, buoys in the just outside of our CWA reported a wind gust of 35 knots (40 mph) at buoy 42023 and at buoy 42026, a wind gust of 45 knots (52 mph) was recorded. Meanwhile, ahead of this pre-frontal line, surface winds are generally southeast at 10 to 15 knots across the marine platforms. The front itself is still located across the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico and has yet to officially enter our waters. .FORECAST... The front will meander southeast through the morning, entering the outer Gulf waters later this morning and the remaining waters by the afternoon. Along the front, we expect another line of showers and thunderstorms to develop and move across the Florida Keys today. Behind the front, expect strong northwesterly breezes to quickly filter in behind. A high pressure moving eastward and filling in behind the front will initially keep fresh to strong breezes as they clock around to the north and northeast overnight into Friday. Dew points will crash behind the front and we will be able to enjoy dew points below 60 degrees for a few days. In addition, daytime high temperatures will dip a few degrees falling just shy of 80 degrees. As the high continues to trek east, winds will continue to clock around to the east by Sunday, while gradually diminishing. The high will eventually flatten out and settle east of the Bahamas through much of next week. This will set the stage for a prolonged period of easterly breezes. This will eventually lead to dew points climbing back above 60 degrees but it may take until Monday before we see those values return. Otherwise, daytime temps over 80 will return along with overnight lows in the mid 70s. No credible rain chances are in the forecast until mid week next week with the potential for another front. However, this is getting to day 7, which could change quite a bit before then. Stay tuned. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the outer Gulf waters. A late season front is slowly approaching from the northwest and will push from northwest to southeast across all of the Florida Keys coastal waters by this afternoon. Given the timing of the frontal passage, fresh to strong breezes will develop by mid to late morning across the deep Gulf waters and spread across the remaining waters and Small Craft Conditions expected by this afternoon across the remaining waters. Breezes will begin to veer back to the east and decrease Friday night through Saturday, and moderate east to southeast breezes will prevail through Monday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Showers ahead of a cold front approaching from the Gulf will lead into a period of light, scattered showers and persistent cloud cover over EYW and MTH today. Near-surface winds will veer from southeasterly to northwesterly with sustained near-surface moderate to fresh breezes and gusts up to 30 knots in the afternoon. The extent of shower coverage remains uncertain. Showers over nearshore waters west of EYW collapsed early in the morning, and the lack of certainty resulted in the lack of a TEMPO group for the morning TAFs. Expect winds to stabilize between 15 and 20 knots by sunset with persistent gusts near 25 kts. && .CLIMATE... In 1994, the daily record warm low temperature of 78F was last recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1873. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 68 79 71 / 40 0 0 0 Marathon 83 69 80 71 / 40 10 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ033-034. && $$ |