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#1174435 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 PM 28.Mar.2024)
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
237 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Windy conditions continue this evening as an earlier cold front
slowly leaves the forecast area with sustained winds near 20 mph
and gusts of near 30 mph. These winds will persist through the
overnight hours before diminishing around tomorrow morning. The
high-level clouds associated with the front are still sitting
along the island chain as well, but there has been some sunshine
making it through small breaks in the clouds. Once this cold front
completely clears the forecast area tonight, skies will clear up
and the relatively cooler air will put overnight lows tonight in
the upper 60s and afternoon highs tomorrow in the upper 70s.

A stretch of quiet and dry weather settles in for the weekend and
into the start of next week. Skies will see a mix of sun and
clouds, and breezes of about 10 to 15 mph will prevail. Afternoon
highs will range from the lower to mid 80s.

Looking ahead, the next push of active weather currently looks to
occur on Thursday. Since that is still a week away, there is
little to no confidence behind any of the finer details related to
the conditions that this push will bring.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Strong to near gale breezes continue to turn
northwesterly to northerly tonight, prevailing through the
overnight hours and into tomorrow morning while turning to the
northeast. As a result, the Small Craft Advisory is still in
effect through tomorrow morning. Breezes diminish and veer to an
easterly direction over the course of tomorrow afternoon and
evening, and will prevail out of the east and southeast over the
weekend and into the start of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 154 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
A cold front pushing through the Florida Keys island chain will
result in a brief bout of sub VFR CIGs at the terminals.
Thereafter, quickly clearing skies will result in VFR conditions
with nil rain chances through the TAF period. Near-surface winds
out of the west to northwest will clock around to the northwest
to north overnight, then to the north to northeast by tomorrow
morning. Winds through 09z will be sustained 15 to 20 knots, with
occasional gusts 25 to 30 knots, only slightly slackening
thereafter.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 67 78 68 79 / 0 0 0 0
Marathon 67 80 69 81 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$
#1174418 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 28.Mar.2024)
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1042 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
The worst of the thunderstorm activity has diminished as the
leading edge of a cold front has already pushed through, but some
light showers and strong breezes remain. Showers diminish over
the next few hours, but the strong breezes will prevail through
the rest of today and into tomorrow morning. Current temperatures
from surface observations are reflecting the cooler air from the
cold front, reading in the upper 70s. Satellite obs show the
cloud shield associated with the front slowly tracking through
the forecast area, so the sun should be able to make an appearance
later this afternoon.

The rest of the forecast is still on track, so there are no
changes being made at this time.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Strong to near gale breezes out of the south to
southwest veer to the west and northwest throughout the day as a
cold front is exiting the forecast area. The worst of the
thunderstorm activity is out of the marine area, but lingering
showers and isolated thunderstorms remain in the cold fronts wake.
Moisture tapers off into the afternoon hours, but the strong to
near gale breezes remain in place. As a result, the Small Craft
Advisory is in effect until tomorrow morning. Breezes diminish and
veer to an easterly direction over the course of tomorrow
afternoon and evening.


&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of a cold front
will slowly wane over the next several hours at the terminals. The
primary impact from these showers will be gusty crosswinds out of
the south, occasionally approaching 30 knots. As the cold front
pushes through this afternoon, winds will clock around to the
northwest to north, becoming sustained near 20 knots, with frequent
gusts 25 to 30 knots under VFR conditions.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 68 79 71 81 / 0 0 0 0
Marathon 69 80 71 79 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$
#1174386 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 AM 28.Mar.2024)
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
431 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

An active morning as a line of pre-frontal showers and
thunderstorms has moved into the outer Gulf and westernmost
Straits of Florida waters. Last night`s sounding showed multiple
pockets of dry air above the surface and sure enough this line is
essentially choking on the dry air. This a double-edge sword
however as the dry air is allowing for the efficient mixing of
momentum. Prior to this line entering our waters, buoys in the
just outside of our CWA reported a wind gust of 35 knots (40 mph)
at buoy 42023 and at buoy 42026, a wind gust of 45 knots (52 mph)
was recorded. Meanwhile, ahead of this pre-frontal line, surface
winds are generally southeast at 10 to 15 knots across the marine
platforms. The front itself is still located across the extreme
southeast Gulf of Mexico and has yet to officially enter our
waters.

.FORECAST...
The front will meander southeast through the morning, entering the
outer Gulf waters later this morning and the remaining waters by
the afternoon. Along the front, we expect another line of showers
and thunderstorms to develop and move across the Florida Keys
today. Behind the front, expect strong northwesterly breezes to
quickly filter in behind. A high pressure moving eastward and filling
in behind the front will initially keep fresh to strong breezes
as they clock around to the north and northeast overnight into
Friday. Dew points will crash behind the front and we will be able
to enjoy dew points below 60 degrees for a few days. In addition,
daytime high temperatures will dip a few degrees falling just shy
of 80 degrees.

As the high continues to trek east, winds will continue to clock
around to the east by Sunday, while gradually diminishing. The
high will eventually flatten out and settle east of the Bahamas
through much of next week. This will set the stage for a
prolonged period of easterly breezes. This will eventually lead to
dew points climbing back above 60 degrees but it may take until
Monday before we see those values return. Otherwise, daytime temps
over 80 will return along with overnight lows in the mid 70s. No
credible rain chances are in the forecast until mid week next week
with the potential for another front. However, this is getting to
day 7, which could change quite a bit before then. Stay tuned.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the outer Gulf waters. A
late season front is slowly approaching from the northwest and
will push from northwest to southeast across all of the Florida
Keys coastal waters by this afternoon. Given the timing of the
frontal passage, fresh to strong breezes will develop by mid to
late morning across the deep Gulf waters and spread across the
remaining waters and Small Craft Conditions expected by this
afternoon across the remaining waters. Breezes will begin to veer
back to the east and decrease Friday night through Saturday, and
moderate east to southeast breezes will prevail through Monday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Showers ahead of a cold front approaching from the Gulf will lead
into a period of light, scattered showers and persistent cloud cover
over EYW and MTH today. Near-surface winds will veer from
southeasterly to northwesterly with sustained near-surface moderate
to fresh breezes and gusts up to 30 knots in the afternoon. The
extent of shower coverage remains uncertain. Showers over nearshore
waters west of EYW collapsed early in the morning, and the lack of
certainty resulted in the lack of a TEMPO group for the morning
TAFs. Expect winds to stabilize between 15 and 20 knots by sunset
with persistent gusts near 25 kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...

In 1994, the daily record warm low temperature of 78F was last
recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1873.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 83 68 79 71 / 40 0 0 0
Marathon 83 69 80 71 / 40 10 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ033-034.

&&

$$