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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL (West Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1176808 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:38 AM 16.Apr.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 229 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Fairly typical April pattern across Florida for the remainder of the week. A strong southern stream disturbance over the Colorado Rockies will lift northeast across the central plains today, and the upper Mississippi Valley tonight. This will aid in pumping up the downstream ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula through midweek increasing large scale subsidence across the area. U/L pattern change will begin late in the week as quasi-zonal flow develops across the CONUS. A slight decrease in heights will occur over the forecast area as the southern extent of the U/L westerlies sink south over the region...however strong U/L subsidence will persist with continued above normal temperatures. A weak U/L trough will move over the eastern seaboard late in the weekend/early next week with an associated cold front approaching north Florida...with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm Monday and Monday night. Rather benign weather expected for the remainder of the week across the forecast area. Some high cloudiness will begin to advect over the region today spilling over the U/L ridge, which will continue to occur each day this week, but overall skies will remain mostly clear/partly cloudy. The increasing large scale subsidence will lead to warmer temperatures...which will run 3 to 6 degrees above climatic normals throughout the week. Next chance for precipitation will develop early next week as a weak U/L trough and associated cold front approaches the region with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 203 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024 VFR conditions will persist at all terminals with skies FEW- SCT250 today and tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024 High pressure will hold over the waters through the week with winds generally 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less...however an easterly surge will be possible each evening with winds 10 to 15 knots for several hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 203 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Warm temperatures and relatively low dew points will create minimum afternoon relative humidity values in the 30 to 35 percent range for the next several days away from the coast. However, red flag conditions are not expected as winds will remain less than 15 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 65 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 89 64 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 88 63 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 87 64 87 65 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 89 58 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 86 68 85 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |