AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
234 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

...BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES ON TUE BEFORE MORE TSTMS RETURN WED AND
THU...

.SYNOPSIS...FLOW HAS BECOME MORE SW ALOFT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EVIDENT ON H2O IMAGERY OVER THE E AND W GOMEX. TSTMS CONTINUE TO
FIRE OVER THE E GOMEX...BUT THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HAS LIMITED
INSTABILITY OVER LAND AREAS AND MOST TSTMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO
THE W CENTRAL PENINSULA OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SFC COLD
FRONT HAS NEARLY STOPPED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. TEMPS AT 2 PM
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE N TO THE LOWER 70S OVER PORTIONS
OF THE S.

.SHORT TERM...FRONT MAY SAG A BIT MORE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF TEMPS...BUT LEANED VERY HEAVILY TOWARD THE
COOLER NAM GUIDANCE AS IT APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE FRONTAL
POSITION BETTER. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...GRADUALLY
SHIFT MODEL BLEND BACK TO 50/50 WITH THE GFS GUIDANCE. BEST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OVER THE SE ZONES
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS ALSO ALONG THE E COAST NEAR
AND N OF THE SFC FRONT.

SMOKE FROM SE GA FIRES SHOULD PROPAGATE TOWARD THE SW THRU TUE
BEFORE SPREADING MORE NE BY WED.

TUE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PRECIP AS SFC FRONT MAKES ITS FARTHEST
PROGRESSION S. HAVE LEFT 30% POPS NEAR AND S OF FRONT OVER THE
EXTREME S WITH 20% POPS ELSEWHERE. DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND WEDGE OF
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY COOL OVER
THE N 2/3 OF THE AREA.

MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO RETURN AREA-WIDE ON WED AS
SFC LOW DEVELOPS UPSTREAM AND DRAGS STALLED FRONT BACK TO THE
N. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THE GFS IS DEPICTING A 50 KT 850MB JET
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH 3+ ENERGY HELICITY INDEX VALUES OVER N
CENTRAL FL. MODELS INDICATE CLEARING CONDITIONS FINALLY BY THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT JUST BETWEEN CRG AND VQQ WILL DRIFT SOUTH
TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO NE AT VQQ AND THEN GNV AROUND 00Z. TEMPO
TSRA AT GNV TILL 22Z WITH VCSH TIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS
BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL LOWER TO IFR AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...NE SURGE BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE WINDS IN SCEC
RANGE OFFSHORE NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY WITH HEADLINES POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  45  65  57  77 /  10  20  30  70
SSI  50  63  60  75 /  40  20  20  70
JAX  53  67  59  79 /  40  20  20  70
SGJ  59  68  63  78 /  50  20  20  70
GNV  58  73  61  81 /  30  20  20  70
OCF  61  78  63  83 /  40  30  20  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

CARROLL/ZIBURA/WALKER