AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 754 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 .AVIATION...AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS JUST PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST ONE MORE STORM MAY IMPACT KFLL AND KOPF OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF...MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WE OPTED TO CARRY JUST VCSH FOR NOW. AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS, COMBINED WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011/ ..CHANCE OF NEEDED RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA... DISCUSSION... A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW OVER THE CWA TO REMAIN IN A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...AND KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...PLAN ON KEEPING A CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE CWA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALSO UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA BREEZES AND LAKE BREEZE COLLIDE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF THUNDER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO IS ALSO FORECAST BY THE SHORT RANGE MODELS TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE COULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER REST OF THE CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IF THE SKIES REMAIN MORE CLEAR AND THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYS MORE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SO AT THIS TIME HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS ZONES FOR LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL LET THE EVENING CREW LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT THE FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CWA ON TUESDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT WASHES OUT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BE MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF POPS ALONG WITH THE THUNDER WORDING OVER THE CWA FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE KEYS MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE CWA. SO THE POPS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED RANGE WITH THE HIGHS POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS. EXTENDED FORECAST... THE HIGH WILL THEN GET PUSH EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS WEEK...AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EASTWARD AND INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY END OF THIS WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER AROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT THERE COULD BE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET COMING THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR THE POSSIBLE OF STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY AND FINE TUNE THE DETAILS AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT FOR NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. MARINE... THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SWINGING BACK EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE SPEEDS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. SO BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SO NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER AT THIS TIME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 68 86 71 86 / 70 40 20 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 71 86 73 86 / 50 30 20 30 MIAMI 71 87 72 87 / 40 30 20 30 NAPLES 69 86 70 86 / 30 30 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...14/MJB AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...04/AT