AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
830 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FLORIDA
WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN BAND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND OVER
THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER AFTER
MIDNIGHT SHOULD SEE THIS RAIN BAND WEAKEN AS GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF JET ALOFT AND DISTURBANCES IN THE MID LEVEL
FLOW SHIFT EASTWARD. HAVE RAIN CHANCES AT 30% OVER NRN LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTY INCREASING TO 70% FROM ORLAND0 SOUTHWARD THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MENTIONED AFTER. MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH THE
EVENING IN THIS RAIN BAND SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED AS WELL. RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS
ALREADY PRODUCED WIDESPREAD PRECIP TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES BEING
REPORTED BY RADAR ESTIMATES IN OSCEOLA COUNTY. AN ADDITIONAL HALF
INCH TO INCH WILL BE LIKELY FROM THIS RAIN BAND FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL NOT CHANGE
MUCH THIS EVENING...LIMITED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH RH VALUES OVERNIGHT...
PRODUCING LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.