CFHC Talkback For News Story #101:
Newest Talkback: 03:42 AM 09-12 EDT

Major Hurricane Floyd Heading West. Warnings and Watches up for Bahamas.
08:54 AM EDT - 12 September 1999

Florida should be paying attention to this storm and beginning to think what would it do if it were to hit.

However--cautiously optimistic--, I still don't see *direct landfall* in Florida happening. It may come close enough and has a decent enough chance to move more west to feel hurricane force winds (unlike Dennis) which does warrant full preperations. Assume it will, I'd imagine.

Why? Well the long range models (With the notable exception of the MRF--Which is indeed a reason to worry) and climatology support no landfall, and I'm always cautiously optimistic. Make no mistake I would very much like to see no hurricanes hit Florida. Also make no mistake that I'm not a meterologist. But there is no need for voodoo meterology when it comes to a storm like this. Bottom line, be prepared to prepare, do the small things now (gas, etc.) and pray for the best. If watches/warnings due occur for Florida, then follow instructions given by officials.

I must emphasize, this one is going to be even closer than Dennis. And that means landfall--Anywhere in East Florida--is still a possibilty. But hype can be dangerous too, and that's why I'm cautiously optimistic. If you want hype you won't find it here. You will find common sense. Florida is looking down the barrel of a gun at Floyd. It is a major hurricane, and you should treat it with the proper preperations as I do. If my thinking changes I will post so on this site as soon as I can.

By the Way, did I mention the fact that Floyd is now a major hurricane and everyone in the east coast should watch it and make preperations and watch official sources for info as it gets closer. If I was too redundant in the above post then I did my job.

As always, feel free to comment, agree, disagree, ask questions, or post your own interpretation.

For more information on Hurricane Floyd see the Current Storm Spotlight for Hurricane Floyd.
For more information on TD#9 see the Current Storm Spotlight for TD#9.
NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics for Floyd.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Floyd and for TD#9
Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #3 (of 3 total)
Floyd (#1)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 09:18AM 12-Sep-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXUNQSU*)

I will be back at 2pm with a update,,but people
please read Floyd is days away in our last
comment secion,,,,I just wrote in there and
they opened up this right afterward,,,,I know others want to hear my discussions due to my
accuracy, so you would have to go there for the newest update,,, thanks scottsvb
I'm Puzzeled (#2)
Posted by: Robin Location: Melrose, FL
Posted On 09:39AM 12-Sep-1999 with id (RPYNRQRNQSRNRRQ*)

Having just read Gary Grey's discussion of the various models written late last night, and having looked at the latest TPC forecast map I note an interesting divergence. Practically all of the models Gary discussed predict that Floyd will not make landfall in Florida and none predict deep penetration inland. The TPC and the NWS forecasts , on the other hand, seem to indicate Floyd plowing obliquely into the coast somewhere near Daytona and the NWS is forecasting significant wave build-up in the Gulf by Wed/Thurs which obviously indicates a more westward track (not that Floyd is expected to enter the Gulf, but that he will be close enough to stir things up significantly (unless it is merely a high gradient between Floyd and high pressure off to the NW. Am I missing something? Usually the TPC's forecast track represents an ensemble of the more reliable or appropriate models, no?
nhc's prediction (#3)
Posted by: clyde w Location: orlando
Posted On 10:42AM 12-Sep-1999 with id (RPVNQPTNRPTNXS*)

i'm no expert, but i think there may be to reasons f the divergnce between gary gray and nhc. first, gary gray was speaking about the mrf, avn, ukmet, and other models which are a help in determining upper air patters, such as the high currently enhancing Floyd, as well as the trough which ll may be te saving gra for florida. because he spok of these specifically, each showed a northern component in the track. the nhc also uses a few "tropical" models, such as lbar, bamm, bamd, whichsow a more southern track. the nhc has attempted to combine the two to crate the best trackprediciton.

i also noted that most of the models already show a wnw movement while floyde continues to move due west. this would also make the long term track of floyd shift somewhat south. these are just my observations, i am certainly no expert on the subject. any other thoughts anyone?
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