CFHC Talkback For News Story #101:
Newest Talkback: 06:25 PM 09-17 EDT

Hurricane Warnings up
10:55 PM EDT - 16 September 2000

Hurricane Warnings now up Anna Maria Island Northward to Ochlockonee River.

Will Gordon strengthen or will he stay about the same?  At this time the experts feel Gordon will not strengthen much but do not let your guard down yet.  Anything can happen. Folks on the west coast of Florida need to keep a close watch and start getting anything that will blow around on your property secured. Even those inland a bit need to start doing this also, if you have not already.  It's always better to be safe than sorry.  And listen to your local officals for any evacuation orders and stay tuned to official forecasts.

This will be our last news update until I get to Texas or Mike somehow gets on.  

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#11. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [jc]

Show All Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #39 (of 39 total)
in the future... (#1)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 11:48PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNQPS*)

If Gordon tracks even a bit further east would it be possible for it to retain more strength if it tracked closer to if not barely in the Atlantic Ocean?
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS? (#2)
Posted by: Mike Location: Valrico
Posted On 01:27AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RTNYRNRQWNX*)

Long time viewer of this site and I value the different comments from all the contributors ranging from Weather Buffs to Weather Pros. My question is why havn't emergency management officials ordered mandatory evacuations with the posting of Hurricane Warnings at 11:00 P.M. by the NHC. If Gordon comes ashore say, just north of Tampa Bay (i.e. Tarpon Springs, which is in warning area) even as a Cat 1 Storm, a lot of people would be under water in Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties. So far they have only given voluntary evacuation orders for zone 1 areas and we are less than 24 hours from expected landfall. I know they are expecting actual landfall farther north, but these counties are in warned area. This would seem to be dangerous and can mislead people into a false sense of security that they are not in danger.
citrus county (#3)
Posted by: William Location: Crystal River, Fl.
Posted On 01:46AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTUNVQNQQW*)

Mike--I know i live in crystal river & ive heard very little from our eoc officials also.Its like you have to go out & find the info. for youeself. They should be more informative--At least i think so!!
Radar Loop (#4)
Posted by: Kevin Location: Orlando
Posted On 03:42AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRQYNQWV*)

If I am seeing what I think I am seeing.....look out Tampa!!! The Intellicast regional radar loop clearly shows that during the past two hours Gordon's "eye" has moved at a heading closer to 45 or 50 degrees. If this heading persists for much longer the storm's approach to the Tampa Bay area will be much closer and sooner than expected.

The link to the radar loop I am referring to is:

http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/UnitedStates/Southeast/Florida/Jacksonville/RadarLoop/

This should prove to be quite an interesting day for us all.

Take care and stay safe....
Kevin


4:55AM RAin is steady no wind -yet (#5)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 04:07AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVRNQVV*)

At 4:00 Am in the morning it is difficult to get good updated information. The satellite pictures are not clear as to what is going on and the advisory appears to be from 10:00 pm. As far as madatory evacuations, I don't thin that there has been adequate reason to evacuate -yet. We are in land from Tampa Bay and have not even had gusts of wind, much less tropical force winds. I have a feeling if we get a blow from this storm it will come at day break. It would be better on people to not leave and get stuck on the flooding roads. The water is going to be our biggest problem in this area Polk has a lot of low lying areas, Most of which is swamplands that dried out in the last 40 years. Only time and Daybreak will tell what is really going on.
Getting hammered with rain (#6)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 04:57AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNRPS*)

This thing is a rainmaker. We've been getting harf rain for the last hour. Winds appear to be gusting around 20-3- mph's so far. Why no update since 11. Has it been downgraded?
Blown forecast (#7)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 05:11AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNRPS*)

Just heard pressure dropped to around 980 with reported gust of 80 to 90 mph with the 2:am advisory. Someone blew this. Pinellas County didn't order evacuations for level A flood zone. I have a feeling there will be soom extensive flooding.
Mandatory Evacuations (#8)
Posted by: Pat Location: Sarasota
Posted On 05:55AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RTNTNRURNQVQ*)

I can't be sure that I'm right, but I don't believe that Emergency Mangement orders mandatory evacuations when you are in a Tropical Storm Warning mode. I know that my TV stations have been telling watchers about possible flooding if you are in a low-lying area and to get out if you think you will be flooded. People should be monitoring their TV sets.
Mandatory Evacuations (#9)
Posted by: Pat Location: Sarasota
Posted On 06:01AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RTNTNRURNQVQ*)

Whoops! My mistake. You people north of Anna Maria Island ARE in a Hurricane Warning mode.
Something is happening (#10)
Posted by: David (http://†)
Posted On 06:18AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRUNTV*)

It looks like the storm is trying to move Eastward.

http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/gmex-wv-loop.html
The Eye (#11)
Posted by: David (http://†)
Posted On 06:22AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRUNTV*)

Is it me or does it look like the eye of Gorgon has taken a jog to the East.

http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/float/float-ir4-loop.html
Did shift East overnight (#12)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 06:43AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNRPS*)

iit definitely has. Storm woke me up around 4:30 and when I went to bed it was suppose to go to aPpalachacola but did shift east overnight with landfall around Cedar Key.
Gordon (#13)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 06:44AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNSU*)

I dont think he has made a jog to the east. Central Florida is in for alot of rain
East Jog? (#14)
Posted by: Mike Location: Valrico
Posted On 06:44AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RTNYRNRQWNX*)

It's more noticable on intellicast.com radar loop. Looks like little wobble to the east on the last frames.
It has (#15)
Posted by: Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 06:48AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQUNY*)

That thing is sitting right offshore of Tampa. I can tell you here in Ft. Lauderdale we have winds sustained at 20 with gusts to 30 and it is amazing to look overhead and once again see the circulation of a trop system wrapping towards the center..the clouds are driving hard to the Northwest towards the center and although humidity is 77 and temp is 83 it feels like a dry wind. We have been under the influence of many circulations the last three years but I haven't felt conditions quite like this before. I just hope the water isn't piling up too bad in Tampa as it sounds like they didn't prepare too much.
East Of tampa Bay (#16)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 07:11AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVRNQPQ*)

I am to the east of Tampa Bay and so far the winds are not too bad here. The trees are moving constantly but it is high in the air.
Weather Report (#17)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 08:15AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQWW*)

Step Outside and you can feel the tropical air mass here in SE Florida. Currently 82 degrees, Dew Point 76 Winds SE 22 gusting to 34 mph.
Gordon (#18)
Posted by: Rob Location: Melrose
Posted On 08:37AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQRNQSRNXX*)

Here in Melrose we will be to the right of the storm's track. I expect we may be in for some heavy rain, but I don't expect sustained winds over 40 mph. with gusts to maybe 55. I will keep you central Floridians posted, especially if it gets interesting.
SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTH FLORIDA (#19)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 08:51AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQWW*)

Those of you in SW and SE Florida don't let your guard down. Just look at the long tail of possible severe weather that extends from Gordon all the way down to the Yucatan still. This tail will influence your weather later today with possible severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. A special local statement mentions severe thunderstorm winds up to 70 mph!!!!!!!
Absolutely (#20)
Posted by: Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 09:02AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQVNQV*)

Just stepped outside again in Ft. lauderdale and it is very gusty, and the clouds are really racing overhead, the airmass feels really juicy unlike a couple of hours ago when it almost felt dry. We had a big tropical downpour about an hour ago..even heavy for Sofla with lightning. Looking at latest IR the big feeder band moving NE looks more potent rainwise than right around the circulation center. We had two funnel clouds yesterday evening in Broward. I had some work to do on the roof this morning and I will be taking a raincheck on that.
Lots of Rain in O-town (#21)
Posted by: ORLANDODUDE Location: O-TOWN, FLORIDA
Posted On 09:05AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNWXNRSUNQTT*)

As you may have guessed SW O-town is getting its share of rain at this moment. Not windy at all, just some rain.. I guess the winds will come later..
current conditions (#22)
Posted by: David (http://†) Location: Cocoa/PSJ
Posted On 09:09AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRUNTV*)

Rain, glorious Rain

light breeze
Gordon (#23)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 10:19AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSSNWV*)

Well as you are all aware the NHC has issued Hurricane Warnings... i would just like to say that Hurricane Warnings were in effect last nite on my site, several hours before official warnings were posted, but as i said my advisories are for guidance only. I think we need to watch Gordon as he heads across the southeast for the Atlantic... once near the atlantic he may well regain intensity, even while still slightly over land...
It also looks like the 'eye' may be reorganising, and if uit is the hurricane may intensify a little before hitting land. I expect a sustained wind of around 85mph at landfall.
Any way will be back soon.
Take care everyone!

The locals out of Tampa (#24)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 10:42AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVSNQ*)

The locals are showing dry air and a deteriorating storm. There is no way that it will intensify unless it stops moving as fast as it is going. There is too much shear. The atmosphere is just not set up for intensification. It also will not intensify over land when it runs out of water to draw heat energy from. If it gets over the Gulf stream in the Atlantic, it could reintensify but that is at least a day or more away. Rain is the word of the day. Hopefully no Tornados
Gordon (#25)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.petersburg
Posted On 10:53AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (VTNRTTNQNVP*)

In St.Petersburg...
At 10:45 winds are gusting to tropical storm force
with winds 40-50mph.Rain so far 3.27.Many tree branchs are broken at my house.temp 69 degrees.
Lost power for about 1:30.
Joe
whew (#26)
Posted by: troy Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 11:42AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQTNXNQTS*)

a very rainy morning on the space coast. A bit of wind too. but...
it looks like gordon didnt reach over 100 mph as some meteorologists thought it would- maybe the nhc isnt a bunch of knuckleheads afterall , huh?). the pressure is rising and that old shear is getting into yet another one this saeson. now where was this shear when andrew did his damage??

looks like the old td 12 is now more of a wave with little chance of becoming a hurricane let alone a tropical storm by monday.

but, check out that low just off the west coast of africa.
Tommy, maybe that will form and make that recurve to the north and give us another swell.


Just Starting (#27)
Posted by: Chad Location: 20 miles East of Cedar Key
Posted On 11:51AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (QRNYRNRWNU*)

It's been drizzling all day, but winds are picking up now...gusts to 20-25 so far.
Looking at the 11AM update, I might get to see the eye of this one.
Remember? (#28)
Posted by: Bob Location: Used to be in Tampa
Posted On 12:13PM 17-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRWNQWQNRT*)

Three comments: One, remember the storm of 93? This looks similar only it is a late summer instead of spring storm. Cold air from the north coming over the gulf, twisting around a low and returning north. Two, this storm is looking like Florence from last week. Only a lot further west. Three, This is a great site!!
SORRY TO DISSAPOINT YOU TROY (#29)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 12:22PM 17-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXTNQQP*)

Sorry to dissapoint you troy about the 100mph,,the pressure did go up from 983 to 992 last night due to the trough reintensifying.,.but as it wobbled alittle east in the predawn hours,,presures droped rapidly 11mbs in just over 2 hours to 981 and winds went up to 80mph,,if the slight weakening didn't occur,the storm would of been alot worse. The track has been right on for me over the last 3days also with the nhc,,good job on that to them. Gorden should be downgraded at 5pm unless he wobbles again to the east,,if so he could keep hurricane status....i hope everyone is learning from this weather experience as tampa and sarasota people got a brush by and people north to cedar key will get more wind and rain,but nothing to compare to what it might have been if the trough wasn't so strong,,,take care people....
Brief Comment on Gordon (#30)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 02:46PM 17-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUUNQQW*)

Gordon's decrese in convection has been fairly rapid. Water vapor imagery indicates dry air entrainment, and shear over the system is on the order of 20 - 30 kts. In other words, I agree with Scott's POV, that this will likely get downgraded before landfall. That is, unless its circulation has enough inertia and convective support, or unless it accelerates.
once again the future (#31)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 02:52PM 17-Sep-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNRQX*)

The nhc's official track takes it through Florida winds down to the 50-55 mph range. However, it takes it offshore by 50 to 75 miles off the Georgia coast. Then the nhc has it restrengthening to about 60 mph and making landfall in North Carolina as a moderate ts. Then it has Gordon move offshore again,winds to 60 mph,and moving about 100 miles south of Cape Cod in the 60-65 hour range.
Picking up a bit (#32)
Posted by: Chad Location: 20 miles East of Cedar Key--28.98N,82.49W
Posted On 03:19PM 17-Sep-2000 with id (QRNYRNRWNRQX*)

It's still mostly calm, but the rain is sporadically heavier and the gusts are up to 30-35.
Wish I knew if I was getting the eye or the east edge...too close to call.
Whats been happening? (#33)
Posted by: JohnC (http://flhurricane.com) Location: San Antonio, Texas (Currently)
Posted On 04:07PM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNQYSNRSYNRV*)

I have been in airports all day what has been happening?
i thought this was a cool picture (#34)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 04:15PM 17-Sep-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQSQNQWV*)



this a comparison of floyd and andrew
ill try it again (#35)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 04:18PM 17-Sep-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQSQNQWV*)


Re: what's been happening (#36)
Posted by: Chad Location: 20 miles East of Cedar Key--28.98N,82.49W
Posted On 04:48PM 17-Sep-2000 with id (QRNYRNRWNRQX*)

From this perspective, winds are up and rain has stopped. I think I'll see the east edge of the eye...darn!
A couple more hours will tell the tale.

If you're the John C. responsible for this site, thank you...it's great.
Lakeland Report (#37)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:57PM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQXX*)

We had nothing all day, a squall here and there; however, the weather here is detiorating (sp?) rapidly....I had a 3 or 4 things that flew through the air here (buckets,sand shovels and tree branches are down throughout the neighborhood)...the sun is peeking in and out as we speak, but then again, the winds are picking up and the clouds look ominous....is this normal?
More tropical systems (#38)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 05:07PM 17-Sep-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNW*)

Despite the fact Gordon's winds are down to 70 mph its winds never were the biggest threat. In the other parts of the Atlantic, a wave showing rotation emerged off the coast of Africa Yesterday. It has potential for developement in the next day or two. I think it will be classified as a depression late tommorrow or early Tuesday.
Thanks (#39)
Posted by: John C (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 06:25PM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNQYSNRSYNRV*)

Thank You for the Update
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