CFHC Talkback For News Story #104:
Newest Talkback: 01:21 PM 09-20 EDT

TD#12 Reforms South of Cuba
08:04 PM EDT - 19 September 2000

And I just got back from a trip that took me longer than expected (not by choice).

We'll be tracking it, and more information will come soon...]

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#12. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #47 (of 47 total)
SQUALLY NIGHT (#1)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 08:29PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNSS*)

Last hour a rain squall from the outer reaches of TD 12 came through. We had a wind gust of 26 mph from the east and .25" of rain in a short time. We also have a current dew point of 80 degrees at 8:30 at night. Wow, we are really in the soup!!!
Camille (#2)
Posted by: Gary Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posted On 08:46PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRUUNRUNQRW*)

Depression #12 will soon become Hurricane Helene and is taking a similar path to catastrophic Camille in 1969.
Depression#12 (#3)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 09:00PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQVY*)

Lets hope it doesn't have the winds like Camille, I think they were close to 165mph when she made landfall.
Depression#12 (#4)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 09:01PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQVY*)

Lets hope it doesn't have the winds like Camille, I think they were close to 165mph when she made landfall.
TD 12 (#5)
Posted by: Mitch McCauslin (http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/weather.html) Location: Cape Canaveral, FL
Posted On 09:01PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RTNYUNRSQNST*)

The track at this time (we know how that can change!) looks similar to Gordon when looking at the computer models. There is no dry air this time to wrap into the center - at least until it gets very far north. It will be interesting to follow this one.
Double up? (#6)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 09:08PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNQTY*)

Looks alot like Gordon. How weird would that be for this system to affect West Florida. Have 2 systems ever affected the same area and in such a short span of time before?
Camille (#7)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 09:13PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQVS*)

A few facts on Camille since I was in the middle of it back in 69. My house on the beach in Biloxi is 20 feet above sea level, the storm surge at my house was 22 feet. The storm actually was supposed to go to Florida, we were told it would take a turn to the Northeast all day Sunday the night it hit... WRONG... Depending on who you talk to the winds were sustained at 175 mph+ with gusts to 200+.... This thing will not be no Camille.... period... Although its possible for it to take a similar track... botton line, Camille was noooo lady...have a nice night yall
"From-the-hip" prediction (#8)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 09:15PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUSNQPY*)

Now that we have TD 12 again, with a forecast probability of becoming a named storm, I'm going to go out on a limb for once and say that the Gulf disturbance probably won't develop, for the following reasons:

1.) It seems to be moving north, into a region of higher westerly shear.

2.) I don't *think* there have ever been two TCs or named storms in the Gulf of Mexico at once. That being said, if one develops and makes it into the Gulf (12), the other system *probably* won't develop. I'll have to give a cursory check of this stat sometime, though.

I would have added "weaker convection" to the cons, but I couldn't rule out that the low just might be going through the regular alternating pattern of tropical convection.
Intrigueing Times no matter What Develops (#9)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 09:21PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVSNQPX*)

These are intrigueing times in the tropics no matter what develops. The scientists are having a field day with new information. My only concern is how much rain to expect this weekend. Last weekend was a nice wash out. I think I would like to see another one. I have another good book to read.
GDFL (#10)
Posted by: John C (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL ( Currently in San Antonio, Texas)
Posted On 09:23PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNVRNWXNSU*)

THe GDFL model has TD#12 a cat 2 hitting the same area as Gordon. Could it be? With the way this season has been going, it will not suprise me if there are TWO tropical systems in the Gulf at the same time. I guess we will find out.
sorry richie (#11)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 09:24PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (VSNSYNSVNWT*)

sorry richie,,,the weather you are experiencing there is not associated with td12,, maybe by later tomorrow night ,,,maybe.
GDFL? GFDL (#12)
Posted by: John C (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL ( Currently in San Antonio, Texas)
Posted On 09:27PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNVRNWXNSU*)

Sorry Guess I am tired or somthing!
SAME AREA? (#13)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 09:41PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNQTY*)

I read the same thing John. Looks to be alot like Gordon. Have 2 storm ever hit in the same are this closely or if this happens would it be a first?
38knt. flight level (#14)
Posted by: Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 09:53PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQVNQXY*)

This sytem is getting its act together..http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/UnitedStates/Southeast/Florida/Miami/RadarLoop/

I can tell you we have an 80 degree dewpoint in Fort Lauderdale, that is really high even for SoFla and it feels oppressive, tons of lightning in the south and west coming our way.
Back To Back (#15)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 09:55PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

In reference to an earlier question about storms hitting the same location-

1954- Hurricane Carol and Hurricane Edna hit NC within 12 days of each other. A 3rd and much more powerful storm hit the same general area later that year.

1955- Hurricane Connie and Hurricane Diane hit NC only 5 days apart!!

Must have been a very rough couple of years for the Outer Bankers! The link below can provide more details for those who are interested.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.html
SORRY SCOTT (#16)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 10:20PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNVY*)

SCOTTS VB ... YOU NEED TO LOOK AT THE SATTELITE PICTURES AND SEE THAT S. FLORIDA'S WEATHER TONIGHT IS BEING AFFECTED BY THE OUTER FRINGES OF TD 12. IF YOU CAN'T SEE THAT I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO TELL YOU.
Camile (#17)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 10:26PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQWSNRQR*)

Officaly Camile was said by recon about an hour before landfall they repoted ""190mph"" sustained
and a pressure around 900 millibars. I can not imagine going through something like that the wind must have been the most awfull thing to hear.
Camile (#18)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 10:26PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQWSNRQR*)

Officaly Camile was said by recon about an hour before landfall they repoted ""190mph"" sustained
and a pressure around 900 millibars. I can not imagine going through something like that the wind must have been the most awfull thing to hear.
SCOTT PART 2 (#19)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 10:34PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNVT*)

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
930 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2000


FARTHER S...SHOWERS ASSOCD WITH OUTER BANDS FROM TD 12 CONTINUE TO
IMPINGE ON THE SW CORNER OF THE CWFA.

TD #12 (#20)
Posted by: Scott J. Cummings Location: Tampa
Posted On 10:45PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRXNTPNS*)

Mother nature is awesome.....I live in Tampa Florida, and in a strange way I am hoping for a Hurricane to hit Tampa...I know you think this guy is nuts...but I think I feed on this power....it is awesome, and I own a home, so I do not know what is wroung with me!
Careful what you wish for... (#21)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 10:58PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQUV*)

Well Scott you better be careful what you wish for... Oh they certainly generate a tremendous amount of excitement and all... but when these storms get to a Cat 3 or above, and now you are facing a tremendous potential for personal injury and properly damage...and you just might loose everything you own.. you might just change your mind, I know because I'm speaking from experience....

Ask anyone who has been through the eye wall of a Cat 3 or above if they'd like to do it again... I don't think so.. I love tracking the storms... but I love em more when they go somewhere else.... and funny, I do know what you are feeling because a long time ago I had such feelings... not any more...
Scott (#22)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 11:00PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNSY*)

I feel the same way, I quess we are both nuts!
Aw Nuts.... (#23)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 11:10PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQUV*)

Hey, I'm definitely crazy... I still ride out all the storms in my beach front house... they are truly spectular events of nature...... but I don't let my family stay.. they gotta go... just me and my two hurricane basset hounds...

c ya
Crazy (#24)
Posted by: Rita (http://www.hurricanewatchers.com) Location: Coastal GA
Posted On 11:54PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQWT*)

We all are crazy for living near the coast. But what a beautiful place it can be.
1971 (#25)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 12:17AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

hey jj, forgive the trivia, but i can think of one instance when there were two in the gulf.. edith and fern in sep '71. needless to say it doesnt happen very often, as close and personal tropical cyclones are a cannibalistic breed. the one on the left right now isnt looking too hot anyway (td 12 w/o its convection still looks halfway decent), so chances of getting a pair arent all that great. gotta go with ya there, the west gulf system is a flash in the pan. the current forecast track on this td 12, amusing. gordon was pretty pathetic here, but theyre sending us another one to make up for the weak performance. the models are less divergent than with gordon, and would-be helene (huh-leen or huh-lena? anybody know the enunciation?) is supposed to be here friday, but i dont have any classes then, so bah. gotta come on a monday or wednesday to really make me happy. these fsu hurricane parties can get pretty wild i hear. ah well, im not advising any keg purchases just yet. this thing gets a name tomorrow and i'll be a bit more prospective...
by the way, the latest african wave has a nice signature. its predecessor is already on the way out, but this one has a bit more ridge to scamper under before meeting the shear monster.. maybe.
well, anyhow, you folks have a good one.
Just a gut feeling....... (#26)
Posted by: Teresa Location: Mobile, AL
Posted On 12:47AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RTNTNRUSNXY*)

but the projected path as of now is west of Cedar Keys, closer to Appalachicola, but my gut feeling is the path and landfall is going to be alittle further west. This TD has a track similar to Hurricane Federick in 1979. Frederick reached Cat. 4 but weakened before landfall.
Weakend (#27)
Posted by: Darcy Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted On 06:44AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNTXNQRSNTV*)

its dieing!
THIS IS ONE WEIRD BIRD (#28)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 06:57AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRR*)

The TD#12 is looking extremely sickly this morning. I would not be surprised to see it bite the dust by noon. But hey ! surprise me!
TD #12 (#29)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 07:28AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

After looking like it was dying during the night, the subject system is re-firing convection this morning and may keep TD ststus at 11 am. Things change so quickly, and I was surprised by the lack of stengthening over night. This may surprise us again though, as convection is quickly firing up around (near) the "center". We'll see how it goes this morning. The area in the western GOM still may have a chance of developing, albeit slim. Systems have just had a tough time deveoping this year. Conditions seem ideal then POOF! We're probably lucky for this. We'll see if out luck holds out. But there's still lots of time left in the Hurricane season. It only takes one storm to bring destruction so keep on guard. cheers!!
Why?? (#30)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 08:18AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNQXV*)

I just don't understand. The environment where td12 is seems favorable for developement. The only reason I can think of is that possibly it has no closed circulation, and if that was the case it wouldn't be strengthening.
This hurricane season (#31)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 08:39AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNRQS*)

Does anyone have any feedback on what is going on this hurricane season. For all the activity that we had this year, Alberto seems to be the only one that has had its act together. So far this hurricane season has been strange, and I quess it will stay that way for the rest of the season.
Hey Guys, Listen Up!! (#32)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:41AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNRPR*)

First of all, this system may appear to be "dying out" on sat imagery; however, it's early morning and lots of things could happen during the day. Let's look at what Dr. Lyons said yesterday (I forgot who posted it) that the easterlies would kill it. Apparantly, it DID not kill it. Also, Dr. Lyons retracted that earlier statement later on (about 8:50pm) and said that the easterlies would stay behind it, improving its chance for development. Also, if I am reading the latest advisory right, this system is over land and that would weaken it. Another thing that I don't know the answer to is this: would the name it, unname it, rename it and unname it again and again? Perhaps. Could the fact that our NOAA aircraft are restricted to certain air space (at the risk of being shot down by Cuba) affect what they find in the next recon flight? Perhaps. All points to ponder. I would definitely watch it today and see what happens. If it looks the same way in 12 hours (or even 6, for that matter) then I would say "bye-bye birdie". For now, though, just keep watching.
MJO (#33)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 08:46AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQSQNSQ*)

Madem Jula Ocilation i think that speld right who knows. Any ways it is wierd atmospheric disturbance that usaly sits over the indian ocean but is now over the atlantic this year it is being blamed for all this. I dont know what it does but its doing it good
good bye #12 (#34)
Posted by: nick
Posted On 08:48AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNXR*)

it's dead
Nick (#35)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:03AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQYQ*)

Seen the latest infrared picture? It doesn't look dead to me.
dead (#36)
Posted by: nick
Posted On 09:19AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNRX*)

only time will tell...it's dead
TO THE OTHER NICK (#37)
Posted by: NICK Location: ORLANDO FL
Posted On 09:35AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQXX*)

POST YOUR LOCATION SO PEOPLE DONT THINK IM THE IDIOT POSTING / THANKS/ AND TWO IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS FLARING UP / NO OFFENSE TO THE TERM IDIOT, GREAT SITE AS ALWAYS
Re 1971 (#38)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 09:42AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNRSUNQYP*)

Hi, Frank. Actually, I checked 1971. Fern was already well inland by the time Edith made it into the Gulf. I admit that it was very close, though.
dead (#39)
Posted by: Doug Spangler Location: sarasota
Posted On 09:54AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQTTNQNTR*)

Watching a long continuous IR enhanced loop leads me to the conclusion that there is no definite llcc, and what there was(is?) of one passed over land, the western portion of Cuba, and is now over water...a large convection flare is over the land area, south of this point and a dot of convection now beginning on the east...not much there, in any event ...the main feeder band is deepening and pulling closer to the point I think the center may be...there is serious doubt this survived over night enough to merit continued status as a cyclone, IMO...
THIS IS WEIRD (#40)
Posted by: L.T. Location: Pensacola, FL
Posted On 10:05AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQWQ*)

WHAT A JOKE OF A SEASON THIS HAS BEEN!

IT ONLY TAKES ONE THOUGH!!!
Come Back #3 for Dep 12 (#41)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 10:31AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNS*)

Looking at the latest IR and vis loop, Dep 12 circulation is still there, and convection better than it was last night and closer to the center. IMO this thing still has a chance to do something, say get to a Cat 1 maybe.... Best chance for impact would be northern Gulf Coast area, say between NO and Panama City... Then again maybe not, what the hell do I know... not much... have a great day yall
NWS MIAMI SAYS IT'S ALIVE (#42)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 10:36AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QVUNQVQNSNQT*)

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
950 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2000

TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA ACCORDING
TO SAT PIX AND LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION FIRING UP AGAIN. GFDL
STRENGTHENS IT A BIT TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
Yes IT is (#43)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 11:06AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTPNRTP*)


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

11 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2000



THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN

POORLY-DEFINED AND NON-EXISTENT. THE BEST ESTIMATE...BASED ON A

LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AT CABO SAN ANTONIO CUBA AT 12Z...IS THAT

IT IS CROSSING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NOAA

HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED 35 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS EAST OF THE

CENTER AND CONVECTION IS INCREASING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THUS...IT WILL NOT BE DECLARED DISSIPATED YET.




Watch This (#44)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 12:14PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Don't give up on this system yet. It has been re-firing convection all morning and has closed off the center again. If shear doesn't impact (her) she could be Helene later today. Not at all sure where she's going, but has the POTENTIAL to intensify into a Hurricane before landfall. WHere is highly dependent on the High pressure to the NE in the bahamas and how fast that moves out, as well as the front coming in from the Lower Great lakes. This front is stronger than initially thought, and will bring the first low elevation snows to Montana. Check back later. CHeers!!
TD #12 Regrouping (#45)
Posted by: Gary Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posted On 01:04PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRUUNUVNQSQ*)

From the latest visual image TD #12 is getting it's act together again. My bet is that it will become Tropical Storm Helena later this afternoon.
I agreed with Steve and Gary (#46)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 01:12PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNQT*)

Over the past two to three hours the TD has shown a slow but steady growth of convection near and around the center.... and still looks to be moving off to the NW. If this trend continues I think its got a chance of becoming a TS either this afternoon or tonight....
'71 (#47)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tally
Posted On 01:21PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNRS*)

yah, jj, youre right. inland doesnt count. my bad. i wanted a storm to visit (not crazy, this thing doesnt have the time to get its act together), but our td 12 is accelerating into its right turn rather than slowing like they usually do.. until it puts the brakes on it'll have a tough time getting a stacked circulation (what they all seem to be missing this year). interesting how the convection broke apart last night when they made it a depression, after holding down pretty solid convection for days as a wave. thats how it goes, convection and llcs just dont go hand in hand this year. it's come back just a bit however..
anyhow, take it easy folks.
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