CFHC Talkback For News Story #110:
Newest Talkback: 01:22 AM 09-23 EDT

Tropical Storm Isaac Forms in East Atlantic
04:30 AM EDT - 22 September 2000

First off, Tropical Storm Helene has not strengthened, and it is now nearing the Florida coast near Pensacola. At this time it has actually lost its punch as it approached the coast and is down to 50MPH winds. The strongest activity remains to the east of the center. Weather will be nasty there for a while.

Tropical Storm Issac, what once was TD#13, now exists in the far Eastern Atlantic as a 50MPH Tropical Storm. It is looking very good on satellite this morning. I haven't seen anything like this so far this year since Alberto. Its distance, however, will give us plenty of time to watch it. It should generally head to the west, and should not encounter shear, at least in the short term.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Joseph Johnston's Mobile Alabama Webcam (Hosted on CFHC)

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Helene. And Isaac From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #17 (of 17 total)
Issac (#1)
Posted by: mark
Posted On 04:57AM 22-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRVNWTNQTS*)

Issac looks similar to Inez 1966, and Gilbert 1988, meteosat photos look very impressive, nhc said in 2 am disscussion rapid intensification may happen with Issac. This one could well turn out to be a cat.4 or 5.
Isaac (#2)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 06:21AM 22-Sep-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSSNSR*)

I agree. Isaac is a very impressive, potent, looking storm. There is great convective banding, and outflow is at least fair in all areas. As NHC said this is the first real well formed, and deep layer, system so far this season. It looks like it has the potential to be this seasons strongest system so far, but dont forget Alberto made it to a very strong Cat 3 storm, with winds of 125 mph.
The thing that i am most concerned about is that Isaac is not expected to make a northward turn over the next 72 hours or more. And by that time, if he has not turned north, then ppl will need to watch him closely.
But as Mike says, he is many days away, and we will have plenty of time to monitor his progress.

an eye! (#3)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 07:39AM 22-Sep-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSRNQQV*)

Well the latest visible and ir imagery shows that TROPICAL STORM Isaac has developed an eye! This storm really looks good on imagery, and having developed an eye so quickly, and while still only a moderate Tropical Storm, shows that it has some great potential to intensify further. I beleive we will see Hurricane Isaac before the end of today!
Issac (#4)
Posted by: Collin Location: Hartsville, SC
Posted On 10:04AM 22-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNQVNUPNRW*)

Anyone have thoughts on the potential path/strength of Issac? From what I am reading this morning, he could be the story of the year. I understand that storms originating just off of the African Coast have trouble making it all the way across this time of year, but the official track is almost due west for the next 72 hours. Any comments would be appreciated!
Isaac (#5)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 10:23AM 22-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNVS*)

Hey, I heard yesterday that a high pressure ridge was building to the north of the storm. John Hope said that it was possible for this to continue westward if it didn't recurve in the next 72 hours. Depends on the High pressure ridge to its north, If it is a strong as they think It may be.
Model Runs 1200Z for Isaac (#6)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:03AM 22-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSR*)

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL STORM ISAAC (AL1300) ON 20000922 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000922 1200 000923 0000 000923 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 13.2N 28.7W 13.9N 30.7W 14.3N 32.6W

BAMM 13.2N 28.7W 13.9N 31.3W 14.1N 33.7W

A90E 13.2N 28.7W 13.9N 31.9W 14.4N 35.0W

LBAR 13.2N 28.7W 14.1N 31.4W 14.9N 34.0W

SHIP 45KTS 58KTS 68KTS



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

000924 0000 000924 1200 000925 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 14.3N 34.5W 14.5N 36.5W 15.7N 40.4W

BAMM 13.8N 36.2W 13.6N 38.7W 13.9N 42.9W

A90E 14.5N 37.9W 14.2N 40.3W 14.6N 44.6W

LBAR 15.4N 36.8W 15.5N 39.8W 15.9N 45.4W

SHIP 77KTS 83KTS 91KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 13.2N LON0 = 28.7W DIR0 = 285DEG SPD0 = 16KT

LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 25.6W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 14KT

LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 23.0W

WND0 = 45KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 35KT

CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 50NM




Comment on Isaac (#7)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 11:25AM 22-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUSNQPP*)

No Cape Verde storm--by my definition, being one that reaches storm intensity east of 45W--that has formed after September 20 has made it to either the Caribbean or the East Coast. Sure, Inez formed late in September and tracked into the Caribbean, but it didn't reach storm intensity until it was just east of the Antilles, so I'm not counting it. Having looked back to 1950, I'm sure of this statistic.

Two near-exceptions were hurricanes Faye and Gladys in 1975, the latter of which gave the East Coast something of a scare. However, both missed the Caribbean and recurved east of the U.S.

Climatology is by no means a rigid set of rules that storms must obey, but it can give one a good idea of probabilities.
ISAAC (#8)
Posted by: Robert Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 11:53AM 22-Sep-2000 with id (QVUNQVQNSNQS*)

JJ, Isaac will now hit the east coast just because it has never happened before. Remember this is the year nothing happens as expected.
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION TROPICAL DESK (#9)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 03:12PM 22-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNQYW*)

AT LOW LVLS..A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN..
WITH AXIS AT 24 HRS TO EXTEND ALONG 73W-74W BY 24 HRS..76W AT 36 HRS..TO
REACH 79W BY 48 HRS. AT 72 HRS THE MRF/AVN DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW
BETWEEN JAMAICA/NRN COLOMBIA..REMINISCENT OF HURRICANE MITCH.
HOWEVER..VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS THROUGH THE FCST CYCLONE SHOWS
POOR DYNAMICS..WITH MOISTURE/CIRCULATION OUT OF PHASE..WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGING TO THE E OF THE CYCLONE. NEVERTHELESS..KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS AREA FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT A MOIST SURGE ACROSS JAMAICA BY 48 HRS..WITH ISLD CONVECTION TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 10-20MM.

That's A Bit Alarming (#10)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 03:20PM 22-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNXR*)

Wow..nice find Gary...I heard about that last night...Hurricane Mitch? Jeez. Let's hope they are right and this one doesn't pan out. Colleen
Isaac (#11)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.petersburg, Fl
Posted On 03:22PM 22-Sep-2000 with id (VTNRTTNQNSW*)

This storm has the potential devlope into
something large.If it keeps going on this rate we may have a stromg Hurricane.I predict a 3 or 4
from this storm.This storm will have to be watched closely on the east coast of the united states.
But we have plenty of time to watch this system...
Joe
Caribbean (#12)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.petersburg, Fl
Posted On 03:29PM 22-Sep-2000 with id (VTNRTTNQNSW*)

I don't think things in the caribbean will develope but what about the mid atlantic system thats ahead of Isaac.What are the chances it could
form, anybody??
Joe
Caribbean (#13)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.petersburg, Fl
Posted On 03:30PM 22-Sep-2000 with id (VTNRTTNQNSW*)

I don't think things in the caribbean will develope but what about the mid atlantic system thats ahead of Isaac.What are the chances it could
form, anybody??
Joe
I think that is the one that the NCEP Desk Is talking about (#14)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 03:46PM 22-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNXR*)

Joe...I believe that this is the one the NCEP is talking about...will have to take a look at a model run...but, obviously, they are thinking SOMETHING could happen, or they would have mentioned it...interesting to say the least.
Yes it is colleen (#15)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 03:53PM 22-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNQYW*)

We need to watch this
Gary (#16)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:04PM 22-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNXR*)

I can only get a 00Z run of the AVN/MRF model on that one...by the way, GFDL has Isaac as a Strong Cat 1 in 72 hours...984mb....we shall see.
helene/isaac (#17)
Posted by: Frank Location: Enterprise, Alabama (for tonight at least)
Posted On 01:22AM 23-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNTWNQYWNQSP*)

it was beautiful this morning when the main feeder band from helene came through. winds were gusting, probably to gale force, and the rain was really coming down. they say tally got 8", that i believe. most of it came down in a pretty short span, maybe 30 mins (well, assuming there wasnt much before my roomy woke me up and we went out and played in it). those of you who watch the weather channel saw the shots from the fsu campus, some of my fellow alumni playing football in a rather.. large puddle. my poor friend had her car in three feet of water.. that sort of thing would be the drawback to the coolness of the storm...
on to isaac.. pretty late for something that tough to come off the coast. jj's climatology post is probably the gospel on the storm, but the model runs for now are sending this bad boy into a threatening position. too early to speculate, but were it august id probably be singing a different tune..
have a good one, folks.
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