CFHC Talkback For News Story #116:
Newest Talkback: 10:45 AM 09-27 EDT

Joyce
09:05 AM EDT - 26 September 2000

Tropical Storm Joyce has formed southeast of where Isaac's at. Joyce will be the one to watch over the next week or so, as it is expected to track due west further south than Isaac. This is yet another "wait and see" storm.

Isaac itself is still a strong hurricane, but remains a fish spinner.

The area in the Caribbean isn't looking as great right now, so I don't expect much from it now. We'll still watch it, just in case.

Joyce will move due west for a while and has a chnace to affect the Islands later. It should strengthen relatively slowly. Isaac is the main cause for this. Once it's gone, Joyce may have a better chance to intensifying further. Joyce will definitely be the story for a while, though.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Isaac. or Joyce From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #14 (of 14 total)
Joyce (#1)
Posted by: Collin Location: Hartsville, SC
Posted On 09:55AM 26-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNQVNUPNRW*)

Anyones thoughts on a possible path for Joyce past 72 hrs.?
Probable Path (#2)
Posted by: Brian Heard Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 10:06AM 26-Sep-2000 with id (QTVNRPQNRWNQPS*)

Cape Verde storms usually initially move somewhere between W & WNW. Expect this track for next 3 days.
track (#3)
Posted by: alan Location: orlando
Posted On 10:27AM 26-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

The MRF, which runs out 144hours, keeps it going west or wnw through the entire period. that track puts it right by the north central islands in six days. Still, that's a crap shoot at best and the MRF is often refered to as the "Most ridiculous forecast."
MRF (#4)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 10:57AM 26-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

Yes, I noticed that the MRF takes it very close to the islands. And at the very end of the run is having it move northwest. Coming yet again very close to the islands.

Of course, past 72 hours it's just a game using the MRF, but it is interesting, for sure.

Issac Moving More West (#5)
Posted by: Tom
Posted On 11:17AM 26-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

I been noticing this morning that Issac has been moving more west, this is being supported by the lasted advisory. Looking at the lasted visable (14:45) it appears to be moving on steadly west in addition to the appearance of getting somewhat better organized.
Can someone concur with this or tell me that I am crazy. I am getting tired of looking at these things!!
Three areas (#6)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 12:54PM 26-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Yes, Isaac has been poksitioned slightly to the SW due to weakening and shear, but should still get carried out to sea in the next 72-84 hours. Joyce will slowly gain strength today and through the next few days as she heads almost due west. She will be a threat to someone down the line, probably the Lesser Antilles first, then PR Hipaniola, and probably the US mainland somewhere...big TBD there. Of greatest interest to me right now is the developing low pressure area just off the Honduran coast. Looks like a circulation with some deep convection firing up right now, and could be a threat to Cuba, and possibly Florida on Saturday. This is a system I wasn't too keen on yesterday, but is beginning to show a little grit. We'll have to watch this one because it is closer to home that the others, and rapid intensification is always a possibility with systems in the SW Caribbean, particularly when strong high pressure is building north of it, and it is forecast to move northward over the next few days. Could surprise us. Stay tuned. Cheers!!
Caribbean (#7)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:11PM 26-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQWY*)

I agree, Steve....we need to watch this one for now and let Joyce go for a couple of days. This one could be Keith by tomorrow, and Florida could be its main target. Watch it folks..it developed, and it developed FAST!!!

Colleen
CARRIBEAN DISTURBANCE (#8)
Posted by: LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD,FL
Posted On 05:52PM 26-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNWY*)

IF IT DOES DEVELOPE IT WILL BE SLOW.THE NHC SAID MARGINAL ENVIROMENT FOR DEVELOPEMENT. SINCE EVERYTHING HAS BEEN THE OPPOSITE WHEN IT COMES TO DEVELOPMENT THIS YEAR WE SHOULD HAVE KEITH BY FRIDAY.....
Caribbean (#9)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, Fl
Posted On 06:48PM 26-Sep-2000 with id (VTNRTTNQNQRX*)

This system in the caribbean may or may not form. If it doesn't form it may a rainy weekend for Florida anyways.Altough I have noticed some convection forming where possibly the low pressure is.If any thing forms it will be slow.Joyce we still have plenty of time to watch it still about 10-14 days from the U.S Mainland...... Joe
Caribbean (#10)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, Fl
Posted On 06:48PM 26-Sep-2000 with id (VTNRTTNQNQRX*)

This system in the caribbean may or may not form. If it doesn't form it may a rainy weekend for Florida anyways.Altough I have noticed some convection forming where possibly the low pressure is.If any thing forms it will be slow.Joyce we still have plenty of time to watch it still about 10-14 days from the U.S Mainland...... Joe
Looking for Keith? (#11)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 09:46PM 26-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

Kind of quiet in here tonight. Where is everyone?

Anyway, looking at the latest satellite loops, I'm wondering if Keith may come from the new system exiting the coast of Africa instead of the Carribean? The Cape Verde season shows no signs of slowing down now that its cranked up. Any thoughts?
CV Disturbance (#12)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 11:48PM 26-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUSNQPR*)

Looks pretty disorganized right now--given the way these things often fall apart after leaving the coast, I'd wait to see if it remains impressive-looking after 24-36 hours.

Joyce: Man, looks like this *might* be the storm that bucks the trend of no Caribbean C.V. storms this late. Then again, some models are forecasting a NW turn that might spare the Islands. We shall see.
cv dist (#13)
Posted by: troy Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 02:02AM 27-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVNTVNRRX*)

that low off the african coast look to be holding up. joyce is looking better and better.

surfers, watch for a swell from isaac by late thurs early friday, though the swell may have too long of a period and the lines so long that the waves close out. if and when isaac makes the turn and nears bermuda is when central florida will recieve the best swell from him.
U guys remember Helene? (#14)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 10:45AM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQWRNQRR*)

Well the remnants of Helene have now begun to affect my area of the world. Winds are expected to gust upto 45, maybe 50 mph. Flood Warnings are in effect for many areas, and most of the country is under a Flood Watch. The rain has just started to pelt down, driven by gusty winds.
Just thought i would report on an old system close to home :)

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