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Keith Now Hurricane In Northwest Caribbean
11:02 AM EDT - 30 September 2000
Keith now has a very impressive looking eye.. 5PM updates forthcoming...
Keith has been upgraded to a Category 1 Hurricane with 80MPH Winds.
It is expected to move slowly north northwest and cross the Northeast section of the Yucatan peninsula. Probably as a Category 2 system. Currently the NHC's calling its movement as meandering. I expect Keith to weaken a bit while its over land, but not below strong Tropical Storm strength, to reemerge in the Gulf of Mexico and reform into a Hurricane. Mexico has issued Hurricane Warnings now for the North coast of the Yucatan. Folks in the Gulf (Especially Florida, Alabama and Louisiana) will want to watch this one closely, as things could change. Keith is starting to look very good on satellite as well. So there is a chance it could deepen more rapidly than expected. Folks in the Yucatan will be advised to prepare now, if you haven't already.
A big caveat with the prediction of the North Northwest movement involves past history with Hurricane Mitch [ Visible Sat of Mitch (1998)]. Models wanted to take that storm to the north, but it eventually meandered toward the west. Becoming a category 5 system and devistating that part of Central America. Mitch caused more deaths than any Atlantic storm previously. Therefore, the NNW solution is not the only solution. Mitch was further south than Keith at the time. But Belize needs to know about this possibility.
Joyce is moving more westward and will be in the southern winward islands tomorrow. I don't think it will regain hurricane strength when it arrives there. After that it's too soon to tell.
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- [mac]