CFHC Talkback For News Story #131:
Newest Talkback: 11:46 PM 10-04 EDT

Keith Tropical Storm. SubTD#1?
04:50 PM EDT - 04 October 2000

Ok, here's a new curveball I just didn't know about. The NHC tracking "subtropical" depressions. Or what it's calling the thing off the Florida East Coast near Daytona Beach. A Subtropical system has a much larger windfield than a normal tropical system, and sometimes they can form into tropical systems. This is new to me (the fact that the Hurricane Center calls it this), so comments on it are welcome. Anyway "Sub Tropical Depression #1" has formed off the Florida East Coast and more will come later on it. (It plays havoc with the automated code here though, overjoy)

Keith has reformed into a Tropical Storm and will remain that way as it enters the Mexican Coastline...

More will come later.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Keith. From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Stormwarn2000 - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.
Live Webcam image from Florida Emergency Management's Emergency Operations Center
Florida Emergency Management Activation Page / Situation Updates

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #13 (of 13 total)
sub-tropical depression? (#1)
Posted by: Rick Location: Delray Bch FL
Posted On 04:57PM 04-Oct-2000 with id (RPYNRTPNRRQNVX*)

The advisory says that it "fits the criteria" for a sub-tropical deprression.

What are these criteria?
Only that the convection is on one side?

Can anyone enlighten me?
subtrop 1 (#2)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 05:01PM 04-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

this doesnt happen very often.. they forecast it to intensify.. wonder if the westerlies wont kill it? wont bother anyone but bermuda if it does get its act together..
Subtropical ... (#3)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 05:13PM 04-Oct-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

Subtropical Cyclone:
A low pressure system that develops over subtropical waters that initially has a non-tropical circulation but in which some elements of tropical cyclone cloud structure are present. Subtropical cyclones can evolve into tropical cyclones. Subtropical cyclones are generally of two types:

(1) An upper level cold low with circulation extending to the surface and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the pressure center.

(2) A mesoscale cyclone originating in or near a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, with radius of maximum sustained winds generally less than 30 miles. The entire circulation sometimes encompasses an area initially no more than 100 miles in diameter. These generally short-lived, marine cyclones may vary in structure from cold to warm core.


Subtropical Depression:
A subtropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.


Subtropical Storm:
A subtropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) or more.



Ok (#4)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:37PM 04-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNQXR*)

This one takes the cake!!! Good explanation Gary. I guess the only reason they named it was for the mariners? Shipping lanes? What?
STD-#1 (#5)
Posted by: Rick Location: Delray Bch FL
Posted On 05:39PM 04-Oct-2000 with id (RPYNRTPNRRQNVX*)

(maybe S-TD-#1 sounds better?) heh heh

Anyway, ... disregard my question above.

Seems the forecast discussion pretty much covers it.

Thanks anyway!
Quick code hacks (#6)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 05:56PM 04-Oct-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)

Well luckily I put the storm names in a linked list so it was easy to add the Sub-TD to the automated updates. (Which for C code is always a good thing)

It should handle that ok now. It's strange that I haven't run into it before.
Judging from a few other sites (#7)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 05:57PM 04-Oct-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)

It broke a lot of automated internet stuff. Including on the NHC's web page. (See the Graphics or the front page, which refers to it a "tropical depression".


Interesting (#8)
Posted by: Darcy (http://www.dynagel.com)
Posted On 06:27PM 04-Oct-2000 with id (RPVNTXNQRSNQRV*)

Thanks Gary.
yes Mike, I was wondering why it said
Tropical Depression Gordon!
Sub-TD One (#9)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 07:34PM 04-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNTY*)

If I'm not mistaken, a subtropical TD formed in April 1992. This is definitely a rare classification by the NHC.

Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
hurricane keith.. leslie? (#10)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 09:51PM 04-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

keith is coming back with a vengeance. the convection and outflow are blossoming.. keith looks like it went supernova on IR. to name an analog storm for keith.. i remember how gert came off the yucatan back in 1993 and came all the way up to cat 2 in about a day and a half. keith has dropped 12 mb in as many hours.. at this rate it could easily be a cat 2 by noon tomorrow. considering that keith went from a ts to a cat 4 hurricane in just over 24 hours.. i wouldnt be surprised. as for subtd 1.. the convection there looks better. the main band on the right side has improved, it looks like half of a cdo. the left is still winding in dry, stable air... it looks like the system is moving east now, so it may be running up under its convection and developing a tropical profile. i wouldnt be surprised if it does become tropical storm leslie in the near future. thats about all thats going on.. former joyce, the wave nearing the islands, the cape verde low nrl monterrey calls 93L.. all look less than impressive right now.
eh, thats my piece. yall take it easy.
Neutercanes (#11)
Posted by: Jeff Lockwood Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 09:55PM 04-Oct-2000 with id (RPYNRPXNSPNQUW*)

As I recall in the early 70s these systems were designated phonetically, i.e. Alpha, Bravo, Charlie, etc. If you look at the official NHC tracking charts from those years you'll see these "neutercanes" plotted as "sub-tropical cyclones".
Subtropical cyclone... (#12)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 11:34PM 04-Oct-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUUNQRP*)

A subtropical storm formed in 1997, but was not warned on in real-time. This is the first time the NHC has warned on a subtropical cyclone since 1992 (though there may have been others since).
Mike Anderson (#13)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:46PM 04-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNRX*)

For any of you who know and respect Mike Anderson, I wanted to pass a message along. Mike has lost his house temporarily (we hope), his computer, family pictures and his cat due to the flooding in Miami. His pool caved in on the left side, he has a sinkhole so big he could fit a Mack Truck in it, they lost their washer, dryer, refrigerator, stove, etc...he received 15" of rain in the last 36 hours. His children's beds are gone. His own bed is gone. But Mike, being Mike, is just so happy that his family is intact. This "front" (i.e. TD) was suppossed to be no big deal, but apparantly, it was. I am asking you to keep Mike and his family in your prayers tonight...and the other 24,999 people that were affected by this "non-system" ....Thank you, Colleen.
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