CFHC Talkback For News Story #135:
Newest Talkback: 05:55 PM 10-10 EDT

Season Slowing Down
07:33 AM EDT - 08 October 2000

It appears the end of the 2000 hurricane season is getting near.  Although the official end is not until November 30th.  It is kind of quiet out in the tropics with just a low pressure system 500 miles south west of the Cape Verde islands and looking good on satellite.  It is forecasted to encounter some heavy shear, so immediate strengthening is not forecasted.

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NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Keith. From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Stormwarn2000 - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.
Live Webcam image from Florida Emergency Management's Emergency Operations Center
Florida Emergency Management Activation Page / Situation Updates

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #9 (of 9 total)
This week in the Tropics (#1)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 12:26PM 09-Oct-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Things are quiet today in the tropics, but things could get real interesting later this week and into next, with strong high pressure in control in the central and eastern US, and some disturbances beginning to show up in the eastern Caribbean an eastern atlantic. The wave in the eastern atlantic has been moving slowly and experiencing some shear during the past few days, but there are signs of this shear are letting up, and the AVN/MRF and even the NOGAPS have this system approaching the Lesser Antilles later this week as a developing TS. The MRF has also been spinning up a strong area of low pressure in the Bahamas or just east of there, for the past three runs. Today's run has it developing in the SE bahamas and heading west across south central Florida Saturday night and moving into the GOM Sunday night. I'm wondering if this System is the area of developing low pressure NE of Puerto Rico that was heading NW this morning, but now heading on more of a westerly course as of the latest loops. May or may not be, but it's an area to watch (MRF is generally suspect, but there is some run to run consistency). We'll have to wait and see if other models jump on this. The MRF also has the east Atlantic system in the SE Bahamas on day 10 as a hurricane or close to it (996mb). So the hurricane season is not over, as there are still a solid 4 weeks left to it. (Usually November is pretty slow, and fronts and SSTs not as conducive to development.) But we need to watch these areas for the next few weeks, particularly since there will be strong ridging in the western atlantic and eastern US for the next week or so, and anything that may develop could be steered in a westerly direction. That's my cut. Cheers!!
GOOD CALL STEVE (#2)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 04:15PM 09-Oct-2000 with id (VSNSYNSWNTS*)

A area of disterbed weather is forcasted to
develop on the strong cold front that went through
florida on Sunday. It should form a low pressure
center near 22n and 70w by Thurs. With a drift n
then wnw into friday for 72hrs,,most models
including the Nogaps(which is the weakest in dev),
(but most accurate in direction) have this a TS
or even a hurricane by the weekend and in the
bahamas. Some northern,some southern,but there.

Now lets just watch this area into weds and thurs
to see what develops,cause the exact position and
track is not set yet,,but due to this trough
lifting out late in the week...a wnw path should
be in the area. scottsvb
Low (#3)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 05:12PM 09-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNUQ*)

Thanks Scott, we'll see what develops. Apparently the UKMET and Canadian models have jumped on the bandwagon. Yes some of them have it going toward the NE part of the state, others toward the south. Lets see what the next few runs have on this system. The forecast is calling for the trough to lift quickly out to the NE and the low pressure developing on the backside of the trough. The next few days will give us a better idea of location and intensity. Cheers!!
west/sw carib too (#4)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 09:48PM 09-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

i dont really have any models to back me up, but i have a feeling that in the next few days something will try to develop between panama and jamaica. not just a climo based guess.. the itcz seems to have shifted north.. and with a front dangling to the nw, maybe a wave coming in from the east, and (so far) relatively weak shear in the area.. just seems like something ought to spin up. if the low forecast to develop near the bahamas or the low at 11n 40w come into the picture it could be another active spurt by late week.
SW Carib (#5)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 10:13PM 09-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNQYX*)

Yeah HankFrank, I was looking at that area today also. There was some flare up of activity on and off today, and some models have shown low pressure in that area as well. This is the time of year for the Carib and I think we'll see at least one more active session of tropical activity, then things should wind down by November. Cheers!!
Hard To Imagine as My teeth Chatter this Morning (#6)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 06:54AM 10-Oct-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVRNQWP*)

Waking up to 48 degrees in Central Florida this morning, makes it hard to believe that anything tropical in nature has a chance to form and get anywhere near Florida this weekend. Now if you start talking subtropical lows, then everyone needs to really pay attention. Those things apparently have a better potential for damage over the long term than a fast moving compact hurricane.
Cool Down (#7)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 07:41AM 10-Oct-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

A brief cool down hardly means that the tropical season is over. Temperatures will bound back by the end of the week over the entire peninsula, and yes, the models are still developing a tropical system over the bahamas in the next 84 hours. NOGAPS puts it coming up the east coast during the weekend. There are still differences in the location and strength of the system, so we'll have to wait to see the models in the next couple of days. The SW Caribbean is heating up this morning , so we'll watch that also. Cheers!!
Activity, and our 3rd Extra-tropical System! (#8)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 10:38AM 10-Oct-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSSNQUP*)

Looking at satellite imagery i notice an area of disturbed weather seems to be getting better organised north of the Panama coast. This area has held together well over the past day or two, and convection seems to be increasing on imagery. i think we need to watch this area closely!

And also you may remember two weeks ago i posted about the effects of the remnants of Helene here in Britain, we had winds of 60 mph and torrential flooding rains. Well on tuesday last week the remnants of Hurricane Isaac passed across the country giving winds gusting to hurricane force, and dumping heavy rain. And we are now bracing for the effects that the remnants of Leslie will have on us as it passes across southern Britain. Current forecasts are warning of 70 mph winds for our southern regions, and 80 mph for northern France. We have seen much rain over the last 24 hours with 3" falling in places. We are under a flood Watch for tonight as Leslies remnants are expected to dump up to 2 more inches of rain.

It is unusual for us to be struck by 3 former tropical cyclones in one year, let alone 3 in two weeks!
models (#9)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 05:55PM 10-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

avn, nogaps, ukmet.. all develop a surface low over the bahamas in the 48-72hr timeframe. avn 12z run actually develops two lows in the area. avn also has two lows east of the islands by the end of the period.. the current one and one developing behind it. nogaps tracks the one already present through the period, and ukmet doesnt really follow em. as for the sw carib.. pretty much all the models show a broad trough.. which is pretty much a semi permanent feature down there (and the triggering mechanism for the october systems that tend to emerge in the area). all i can do in light of all this is agree with whats already been said by steve h and scottsvb.. most likely spot is the bahamas on thursday or friday, the east atlantic low has to hold together for the tiem being and cant really develop under 20-30kt shear.. and the sw carib will need to persist and develop some circulation before it does anything. voila, ive stated the obvious.
yall take it easy.
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