CFHC Talkback For News Story #141:
Newest Talkback: 11:12 PM 10-19 EDT

Another System
07:15 AM EDT - 19 October 2000

Michael is churning itself toward the north and moving over colder waters. Thankfully, it never threatened Bermuda. Now a new system quite a good distance Northeast of Puerto Rico looks like it may be trying to get its act together. We are getting pretty high into the names now, and if it were to develop it would be called Nadine. This too has nearly no chance of affecting land. We will watch it closely, regardless.

Hurricane season is not OVER yet. Last day of it is November 30th. Please remember this.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Michael. From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Stormwarn2000 - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

Show All Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #14 (of 14 total)
Next TD? (#1)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 10:16AM 19-Oct-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Statistically speaking, maybe the number of storms seems unrealistic, but due to the nature of this season, as Hank pointed out earlier, some of this season's storms never reached their potential. But then again, statistics only show that a storm formed and they don't care how short-lived they were. That being said (whatever I just said), we have what could be our next TD forming north of Puerto Rico, and could be Nadine. The models take her to the north over time, but let's see how the high pressure over the NE develops, and let's see if she develops. Looks like a circulation beginning to develop now though, and we should have a TD within 24 hours if this trend continues. The Caribbean (NW) may be an area to watch as well, as convection has begun to flare up SW of Jamaica again this morning. This season i'm throwing the stats out the window. The last 5 years are beginning to skew the data anyhow. cheers!!
T#s (#2)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 11:43AM 19-Oct-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNQXS*)

TPNT KGWC 191350

A. DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC

B. 19/1245Z (135)

C. 26.5N/3

D. 59.7W/1

E. SIX/GOES8

F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS -19/1245Z-

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI



40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN HAS GROWN MORE ORGANIZED OVER PAST

12-18HRS. OUTFLOW LOOKS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON

THE LOG10 SPIRAL. FINAL T IS BASED ON PT.

tropical disturbance (#3)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 12:32PM 19-Oct-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

The area of convection NE of Puerto Rico has some banding type features and deep convection. What I notice currently is an upper level low to the SSW of the system. This could impede development of this low in the short term, but the ULL appears to be moving to the east underneath the disturbance, and could enhance or disrupt it's development during the next 24 hours or so. This could also affect the system's movement, although it seems to be drifting north at present. Stay tuned. I believe there's a few more out there like this before the season quits, as a deep low pressure area over the four corners will remain stationary into the foreseeable future and heights rise in the northeast. Could make things interesting during the next 2 weeks. Cheers!!
michael/possible nadine (#4)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 01:21PM 19-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

considering that michael has spent much of its brief life not looking entirely tropical, its remarkable that the storm has a chance to reach newfoundland as a tropical system. it is late season and the waters up there are near freezing.
the low southeast of bermuda has retained its organized look.. its satelite presentation is suggestive of outflow. late last night i checked the 00Z model runs.. avn deepens this into a near hurricane by tomorrow. nogaps tracked it but kept it weak and pretty much embedded in the trough behind michael.. and ukmet initialized it as only a bump in the pressure field and ignored it from then on. i usually try not to over-forecast a storm's potential, but i do think that we will have nadine later and it will intensify as it moves northeast over the next couple of days. nogaps, which kept it weaker.. hinted at cutting it off from the westerly flow. one other thing.. speaking of models.. both nogaps and avn make another strong low right around where michael formed by monday, and it too is cut off from the westerly flow. it will be interesting to see if this scenario does verify.
Newfoundland (#5)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 04:37PM 19-Oct-2000 with id (RPVNRQPNRQTNS*)

Does anyone know where you can get radar or weather info from newfoundland? Please respond
THE PERFECT STORM? (#6)
Posted by: LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD,FL
Posted On 04:49PM 19-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQUX*)

Who thinks Michael will be the perfect storm? Since he is heading up to Newfoundland with wind s at 100mph he could cause some damage. Even though it won't be a Hurricane but an extratropical system it still could cause some damage as in merges with the front.
close to perfect (#7)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 05:02PM 19-Oct-2000 with id (RPVNRQPNRQTNS*)

Well, michael may not be a "perfect" storm, but it is awfully close. Think about this awful scenario (I really an glad this did not happen) Michael starts with 100 mph winds, then as it becomes extratropical it strengthans to 125 mph. I'm glad this didn't happen.
i just realized somethig bad (#8)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 05:09PM 19-Oct-2000 with id (RPVNRQPNRQTNS*)

Michael is moving at 52 mph. Its max winds are 100mph. That means the right front quadrent will experience wins up to 152 mph. Michael could be a Perfect storm
NADINE (#9)
Posted by: LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD,FL
Posted On 05:15PM 19-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQUX*)

I told my sister we'll make it to 14 named storms because her name is nadine. A depression has formed according to the NHC.It is heading north at 14 knots and should soon turn towards the NE. So it will be a ships concern storm but soon should be named NADINE.
Comment on TD 18 (#10)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 05:37PM 19-Oct-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUUNQQY*)

This is an odd one...this TD seems to have come out of nowhere, not even developing directly from a tropical wave.

It would be interesting to see this one become Nadine...seeing as to that I still think a November storm is likely, this could be a real banner year for named storms, if it isn't already.


canada reports (#11)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 05:39PM 19-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

hey alex, check out environment canada. just type it into a search engine and you should get the link. theyve got (mediocre) radar. you can also go to www.wunderground.com and scroll down the list.. on the left hand side of the screen youll see international weather (i think?). click on canada, select newfoundland from there. itll put up a list of stations.
by the way, michael isnt as intense as the 100mph wind makes it sound. a ship reported 90mph winds a bit east of the center, so they adjusted for distance and rounded up to 100. nothing like 150 mph.. but since this storm is a fast mover, the gusts could be WAY up there. the tropical core of the system where hurricane force winds are is actually rather small, but the gale force wind field, expanding due to the extratropical conversion, is very large. most stations in newfoundland are reporting winds near gale force already. michael looks nearly extratropical to me, but for posterity the nhc is tracking it for maybe another 6hr.
far south of michael, td 18 is probably already nadine, just poorly organized in its satelite presentation. a ship reported 33kt/38mph winds earlier, and that was slightly away from the center. reading those discussions can sure be informative..
well, hope the links are useful. yall take it easy.
Michael (#12)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 06:11PM 19-Oct-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNTPNQTV*)

Try the canadian hurricane Centre site for warnings on Michael, they are expecting winds in excess of 100 mph, and admit they did not expect this to be the case. interesting to find out how a poor system intensified to a hurricanr=e in the first place, and is now supporting winds of 100 mph when it is nearing 50'N!! And the extra-tropical storm that will result from Michael will be affecting my shores late sunday nite, and into monday.... if that happens it will be the 5th former Tropical Cyclone to hit our shores... the others being Helene, Isaac, joyce, and Leslie. leslie incidentally gave us the worst flooding in over 30 years and dumped over 6 inches of rain in 23 hours!!
TD18 Origins (#13)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 06:13PM 19-Oct-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNVT*)

For JJ:
Actually this one came off the African coast about 10 days ago at 12N. When it got within a few hundred miles of the Islands it encountered strong southerly shear (sound familiar this year?) and just about became unrecognizable. A weak LLC finally pushed through the shear (it took a few days), but by then the low level easterlies and the mid level southerly shear had pushed what little remained of the system to the north of the Islands. As the shear relaxed and the weak LLC slowed down, the convection reappeared about a day and a half ago.
Cheers,
ED
Re Ed (#14)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 11:12PM 19-Oct-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUSNQPT*)

Much appreciated, Ed--I'll take note of that.
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