CFHC Talkback For News Story #31:
Newest Talkback: 10:05 PM 07-30 EDT

The Models
06:43 PM EDT - 27 July 2000

Here's the point where the real wave mongering begins. It's when the Atlantic looks ready to start cranking, and the models start flaking.

MRF, Medium-Range-Forecast, aka "Most Rediculous Forecast" is predicting something NE of Puerto Rico in 6 days. From the area in the East Atlantic that's been the talk as of late. Only catch is that some of the other long range forecast models don't pick this up, and nothing seems to be getting organized out there right now.

Here's a fine example of something that could be that we have to watch.
My Development Chances Scale for this wave: 

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [---*-------------------]
Why that?

Well it's been fairly persistent, but persistently disorganzied. It hasn't got its act together, and may never do so. Nevertheless, it's the time of year we can't let our guard down on these systems. So it's worth checking in on. We have time to track this disturbed area, so don't let it disturb you for now.

It looks good. Watch the comments for any minor changes, and updates again if anything major happens. This will be my last update until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. John will take over for the weekend if anything happens.

satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Comments? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #18 (of 18 total)
Waves again (still) (#1)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 11:40PM 27-Jul-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQVV*)

Here I go again, but seems like we have a circulation with convection west of the Cape Verdes at about 16N with decent convection for that latitude, considering the alledgedly marginal SSTs. That's just about where the AVN was placing it, then pushing it NW, then West. Maybe my eyes are deceiving me again, as the hour is late, but this looks like it will break away from the mass of convection and slowly develop. An area in the SE Caribean also shows a small circulation, but we can watch that area later. I think we 've got it going finally in the east. I'll regret this statement in the morning. Cheers.
No named storm in July! (#2)
Posted by: Bob Location: Sanford, FL
Posted On 08:45AM 28-Jul-2000 with id (QYYNRTQNXNQXT*)

I will have to agree with Mike C., there will not be any named storms in July. Although I fell August will start off with a bang. Convection is starting to pick up in the eastern Atlantic and holding for a much longer period. This with High pressure aloft and water temps above 80. Things will and have started to pick up. I would also like to point out that tracking storms is fun, but when they start threatening your home family and all that you have worked for the fun stops!
Waves & Models (#3)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:21AM 28-Jul-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNUV*)

Ok, I agree about the models...but there is DEFINIETELY something out there in the Atlantic, and sat pics prove it. As for the Gulf of Mexico, there is a HUGE blob of convection, and although it doesn't look very organized at this time, the last sat loop showed a deep red in the center. The models don't even show THIS or maybe that's because of the way models work. I checked some buoy points as close to this system as I could, and the lowest pressure I could find was 1014 and dropping. So, we still have 3 days left, I wouldn't write anything off yet...but I still say the quiet time is OVER. Colleen
Gulf, east (#4)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 10:24AM 28-Jul-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Agree with Colleen. Four days to go is quite enough for either the Gulf 'blob' or the wave West of Africa to spin up (and down again for that matter).

I'd say either area is a candidate, if the Gulf convection holds together for 12 more hours and increases, I'd say it has the 'best chance'. Persistence is the key.

Earlier this week I posted that unless something started by Fri , I'd say July was a no development month. Well, it looks like something is starting. If we don't get an organized system by Sat pm, chnaces are 50/50, and if not by Sunday pm, forget it for July.

ps- the is still an off chance of a Caribbean system or one near the Bahamas. The interesting time is starting.

IHS,
Bill
Blobs and Waves (#5)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:47AM 28-Jul-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNSR*)

Well, The NRL Monteray now has the Atlantic system up on it's main page...looking at it, you would have to say it's getting more organized and the IR even shows a tiny hint of red in the center. As for the Gulf, I see no reason (but I am no expert by any means) as to why this couldn't develop as the SST are VERY warm in this area and it is far enough away from any coastline for that to inhibit development unless there are other factors I just don't see like wind shear or something like that. My bet is that we may see two named storms by the end of July, but I am probably wrong...who knows
Areas of Concern (#6)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 12:52PM 28-Jul-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

East Atlantic system struggling to hold on now, but Maintaining it's structure and should be moving W, even WSW due to the high pressure to the NW. It may struggle with upper level winds somewhat here, but on the flipside, if it moves back south of 16 N it wwill be pulling from warmer SSTs. It should hang in there though, and if it survives 2 days it will encounter warmer waters. Area in the Gulf has lost a lot of convection, but looks on vis like its trying to develop a circulation. Not sold on the gulf system yet, but with the waters as warm as they are you can't count it out, even if other conditions aren't the best. back to work. Cheers.
Tropical Development (#7)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 03:52PM 28-Jul-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSSNQQX*)

Hello all...
Well again we wait but things arte getting warmer. As of 2pm today there is a low level circulation at 31w..16n but upper level winds have increased a bit so any development will be slow. I still believe as this waves approaches 40-42 west waters warm to 82 degrees and upper level winds become lighter we will see our first storm starting to develope. Now though this is not the only area I am becomming concerned over. The area just southeast of the Bahama's is becomming interesting and a couple of models are showing a Tropical Depression forming in this area in 48-72 hours. They move this system into the Florida Keys and into the southeast Gulf in 5-6 days giving south Florida a good chance of rain. Both systems are possible but its still too early to give a positive on development of either system but it does bear watching closely

Its picking up! (#8)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: England, UK
Posted On 06:51PM 28-Jul-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQWRNRUQ*)

Well at last there is an increase in activity. The latest AVN Surface Level Pressure, and also Vorticity forecasts, hold the low to the west of the Cape Verdes together and indicate development over the next 72 hours. It will need watching!
But the same forecasts also indicate something i mentioned yesterday, that is development in the Caribbean. Both the SLP and Vorticity forecasts show two systems in the Caribbean over the next 72 hrs. The first is shown as developing in the south east or south central Caribbean. Its is forecast to be over , or very near to, Jamaica in 72 hours. The other system is shown as developing over the south west Caribbean and heads inland over Nicaragua in 72 hrs. Both these areas will have my close attention!
As will the area in the Gulf of Mexico. It has weakened but still has some hint of cyclonic curvature, and with SST's very high in the area development of this system is definitely possible. So there are indeed signs that activity is picking up. Keep watching.
i have a question (#9)
Posted by: richard
Posted On 09:21AM 29-Jul-2000 with id (VSNRUTNQPQNQPR*)

who are all you people?do any of you really know what your even talking about? i know you think you do.you amatuer forecasters ought to give it up.i think i'll stick with the weather channel.
Richard (#10)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 11:18AM 29-Jul-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNUS*)

Stick to the weather channel. We like to have a little fun on these sites trying to figure out where tropical systems may form and where they might go, and yes many do know what they're talking about and have degrees in meteorology, and many don't. These tropical message sites are NOT official, so if the messages are offensive to you or bother you, don't visit these sites. Have a great weekend.
Area near Puerto Rico (#11)
Posted by: Mary
Posted On 11:26AM 29-Jul-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVRNQTU*)

Is this area near Puerto Rico the same system that is being talked about in regard to Jamaica?
The convection is impressive and there is a definite spin in the atmosphere. I think the the TPC page is mentioning something about 65kt winds around a trough? Please anyone would comment?

Tropical Development (#12)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 03:04PM 29-Jul-2000 with id (QRNWWNQWWNTV*)

Hello Everyone,
Well we continue to see a low level circulation around 17n 35 west moving west at 10-15mph. Last night ship reports had a northwest wind at the surface at 25 mph. Pressure at 1012mb just west of the center. Today pressure is at 1011mb and even though upper level winds are below 20 knots water temp. are in the mid 70's so no development is expected. Wind shear increases to 30 knots just west and south of the center so development is not expected for the next 24-48 hours. Beyond that we may have to look more closely as water temp. increase and wind shear may begin to weaken again. Two models are still showing development in about 3-4 days as it approaches just north of the carribean but again we have to wait and see.. As for the carribean and Bahama's no development is likely due to a upper level low in the area and wind shear is well over 40 knots. As a personal note I still believe we will see formation next week but I also am looking just off of Africa this morning and it looks interesting as well.
Off Africa (#13)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 03:26PM 29-Jul-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNTQ*)

Agree. This area has a low pressure area associated with it and it could develop before the one at 17N gets going...we'll see. Again correct with the Caribbean convection....an upper-level low is over Hipaniola currently so this area isn't favorable for development. cheers.
Puerto Rico (#14)
Posted by: Randy
Posted On 05:56PM 29-Jul-2000 with id (VSNXXNVRNQWY*)

Give mary an 'A'
Tropical Weather.... (#15)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: England, UK
Posted On 06:22PM 29-Jul-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQWSNQRR*)

Well like i said yesterday thing appear to be picking up in the Atlantic... and now i beleive we wont have a july storm i do think the first few days of August will provide us with one. The system in the Atlantic has weakened and has very little convection left. However visible imagery still indicates a definite circulation and as it moves over warmer sst's it should develop. The AVN Surface Level Pressure, and Vorticity, maps indicate it will develop within about 48 hours.

Also of interest is the point i made yesterday. I stated that some models indicated a development in the Caribbean. Well the wave that has moved into the region has certainly proved to be worth watching! Convection continues to increase over a vast area and conditions continue to prove more and more favourable for development. There are already hints of a circulation too. The AVN models picks this system up and carries it over Cuba within 48-72 hours, intensifying along the way. It looks like this may be a good area to watch.

Also the latest action off the coast of Africa shows some circulation and again the AVN model indicates development very shortly with this system too.
With these three potential areas we will be kept busy.
By the way i would just like to mention that the 'Richard' who posted the 'I have a question' comment was not me.
Thanx and take care
Caribbean (#16)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 06:52PM 29-Jul-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNQWY*)

Hats off to ya Mary, you picked up on this one early. I really didn't take it seriously, figured development would occur further south and west. This is indeed an area to watch. Once again I've jumped the gun on the Atlantic system, but it should still develop, and well as the one that came off Africa this morning. The season is off and running. Cheers!
Wow (#17)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 11:46PM 29-Jul-2000 with id (QRNXXNQYTNQQP*)

I'm still out of town, and borrowing someone else's laptop to check, but it seems things sure have kicked up. I wish I had more time to check it out, but I'm stuck in NYC until Monday.

To rebut the one comment about information and the weather channel, I think it's important to note the purpose of the site. It's not to compete with anyone, other than the quest for information. TWC is only regurgitating what the National Hurricane Center says, which gives you enough for most people. However, learning more is not a bad thing. Seeing opinions and analysis from people cannot hurt. In fact, when it comes down to decision making (Evacuations etc.) It can help with the decision making process. With the official word taken as is, this can be of help to those who seek more information. Personally I watch the weather channel and comment on what I think may happen.

The freedom of being unencumbered by official status allows anyone to comment, and the combined total weight of not only this site, but others as well as well as the official sources and twc can really give a better overall impression. The email I have received on it has given praises from insurance companys, military, foreign visitors, emergency managment and everyday folks for help in guidance. Make of it what you will, but please don't make it something that its not. I'm the first one to admit, and I really try to drive this point home often, maybe not often enough, is that this site is no replacement for official sources.

Thanks,
- Mike C. in NYC

sorry (#18)
Posted by: richard Location: melbourne
Posted On 10:05PM 30-Jul-2000 with id (VSNRUTNQPPNUX*)

i have to say i'm sorry to you guys.i shouldn't have been busting you like that.you really enjoy this and i understand that. i have to take exception though with the comment that TWC is just regurgitating the hurricane centers info.i personally have more confidence in John Hope and Dr. Steve Lyons than anyone.they seem to be the most level headed out there when it comes to predicting where a storm is going to move.when you consider that the other sources for information around here are the local tv stations out of orlando, and i personally think they want a storm to hit florida so they can have a big news story,i will take TWC any day!i've seen to many times where a thunderstorm moved off the coast of africa and the guy from channel 9 had it coming into florida by the next week.its pretty sad really.oh well,once again i am sorry.
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