CFHC Talkback For News Story #34:
Newest Talkback: 12:16 PM 08-04 EDT

TD #3 Forms
06:41 AM EDT - 04 August 2000

Well as expected, the wave mentioned in the last article is now tropical depression #3 and is expected to become tropical storm Alberto by the end of today. This depression at 5am was located near latitude 12.2 north, longitude 22.7 west. It is moving toward the west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds 35 mph with higher gusts.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #5 (of 5 total)
TD Three (#1)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 07:42AM 04-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQWR*)

TD Three should become Tropical Storm Alberto very soon as the depression is very well-organized with a large area of persistent convection. A strong ridge of high pressure is located north of TD Three and is actually moving westward in tandem with the depression. This will maintain TD Three's westerly track for at least 72 hours, and likely even more. This westerly motion will also keep the depression over SSTs supportive enough for intensification. I am very confident that we will see the first named storm of the season.

God Bless,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
TD#3(Alberto) (#2)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 08:29AM 04-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSSNWW*)

Hello All,
Well here we go!! TD#3 was named this mourning due to ship reports of sustained winds of 50 mph near the center. The only reason it was'nt made a Tropical Storm was cloud tops were warming a bit early this mourning so the NHC felt better to hold it back a bit until they could take a better look at it durring the day today. There is a easterly shear in place enough to weaken the eastern half of this system which should slow down the strengthening a bit in the short term. An upper high is just north of the system which should allow a westerly track through 72 hours or even a bit north of due west. Its still way to early to predict where this system will go in long term but everyone in the eastern carribean should watch this system over the next 3-5 days. Now how strong will this system get it looks like it may get strong enough to become Alberto later today and we could see a slow strengthening thru the next 72 hours as long as it remains south of 14north. If it gets north of 14north it will enter waters a bit cooler so strengthening will be halted in the short term. I don't believe we will see a Hurricane from this system thru 72 hours but maybe just beyond 72 hours. The forcasted position thru 72 hours puts it at 15n...40west as a 65mph T.S. If I had to guess right now I believe that the northern Islands and Puerto Rico has the biggest threat in about 6 days and thats going out on a big limb.. For now get prepared and continue to watch..
T.S. Alberto (#3)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 11:17AM 04-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQWWNRT*)

Hello All,
Tropical Storm Alberto has now formed over the eastern atlantic and is showing signs of strengthing. Alberto is having some easterly shear at this time effecting strengthening in the short term but the shear will weaken and development will continue and looks like we may have a hurricane in 48-72 hours. The upper level ridge to its north will weaken slightly over the next 12-24 hours which may allow some northerly component to its coarse but the ridge will become stronger again and should push Alberto westward over time. The new forcast takes Alberto in 72 hours to 42.5w...15.0 north..with winds of 80mph. Beyond 72 hours Alberto should continue to move w-nw towards the northeast carribean. If this ridge continues north of Alberto it could threaten the U.S. in time but its way to far off to even worry about that scernio. For now just watch and see where Alberto heads for first.

System east of Bermuda (#4)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 11:24AM 04-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Good morning all! Tropics open for business.

Don't forget the system east of Bermuda; I hear what Ronn was saying in his post under the other header, but agree with Richard from the UK. You might want to take a look at Accuweather. They have also picked up on this.

And...remember that little swirl that got lost in the eastern Carib? It's trying to make a comeback, and the system has split in two, with the apparently stronger energy going north of the DR at this time. There seems to be increasing cyclonic curvature at the location, so keep an eye on this too.

Alberto looks healthy and there is plenty of moist warm air in it's immediate environment, should ramp up nicely, with the only impediment being the lower SSTs in the near future path. Thye may slow down the intensification process a bit.

7-10 days from any impact in our area (Florida) if at all. Greater (potential) concern about the systems closeer to home at this time.

IHS,

Bill


As Dr. Gray Backs off on Prediction - Storm Forms (#5)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 12:16PM 04-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Bill, you are on track with the area of my concern...this area of convection in the far SE Bahamas is interesting. I haven't looked at any real data on it, but when I saw the sat loop it immediately caught my eye. This is probably associated with the tutt the models were showing yesterday, but it should be watched...it's close by and once the tropics pop, stuff can break out all over, like a rash...cheers!
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