CFHC Talkback For News Story #35:
Newest Talkback: 05:08 AM 08-05 EDT

Season Has Finally Started... Tropical Storm Alberto Forms in East Atlantic
11:55 AM EDT - 04 August 2000

Our first Named Storm of the year looks impressive for a Tropical Storm. I think Alberto will make it into Hurricane Status, but it may be slow to achieve that. And it's future track warrants folks watching it from the Caribbean to the US over time. It's quite a ways away, so we will have time to watch it.

It's not the only thing going on, either. In the east Caribbean, now, is another interesting system that, if it organized, could be something worth watching as well. But Alberto is what we'll be closely watching over the next few days. Time for projections. I'm not quick to think this one will turn out to sea, either.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #18 (of 18 total)
ALBERTO (#1)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 02:03PM 04-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSTNST*)

Hello All,
The tropics are popping now!! Alberto is the biggest news and it continues to look better on satellite. Alberto continues to move west or just north of due west and this motion should continue over the next 72 hours.. Alberto should become a hurricane durring the next 72 hours and where Alberto will go after that is the question. Right now I feel Alberto will continue to move w-nw towards the northeastern islands of the carribean as a hurricane approaching in about 5-6 days so we have alot of time to watch this one. If it approaches the U.S. it wont be for another 10 days or so.
east of bermuda (#2)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 05:28PM 04-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Well, take a look at the latest (this afternoon) IR of the system and you will see it is getting better organized, I see some banding and outflow, it even looks like an eye feature (banding eye) forming in the center. NHC may get a surprise...assuming any of this is at the surface of course.

Does anyone else see this?

Meanwhile, Alberto is cranking up. May do like Daniel did over the week and defy weakening due to colder water. We will see. The globals show a strong cold water effect, other models show strengthening...how's that for divergence in the model outputs?!

Carib is flaring too...north of the DR has settled down a bit, but south is flaring...and some of the models show a strong cyclone moving into the Gulf int he next few days.Thoughts?

IHS,

Bill
East of Bermuda (#3)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 05:31PM 04-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

One addl comment...NHC analyzes the low earlier today as a 1023 mb low (gives you and idea of how strong the high pressure it is in embedded in is!), but I believe the pressure has fallen steadily during the day. Still high, but Andrew was a tropical storm with 45 mph winds with a 1015 pressure- to date, the highest pressure ever observed in a tropical storm.

IHS,

Bill
Alberto (#4)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 05:36PM 04-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSTNQPV*)

Hello All,
Alberto is continuing to look more impressive on satellite and ship reports are bring in winds in the arfea of 60 mph. So we now have as of 5pm Alberto 12.9n...25.9w winds 60mph moving west at 17mph. Even though winds have increased over the last 6 hours I am not convinced we will see a hurricane over the next 24 hours. A couple of models have Alberto falling apart over the next 48 hours and weakening back into a wave but I don't see that happening. I have not been to convinced with models so far this year..I do see a leveling off for a while and then back to a strengthening stage. If Alberto holds together I still believe Puerto Rico or the area of P.R. in about 4 days but its still to early for this to be forecasted. Beyond that I am starting to feel it may get as far as the eastern Bahama's in 7-8 days but this is only a guess at this time. Lets just see if Alberto holds together and approaches the eastern Carribean.
Alberto... at last! (#5)
Posted by: Richard B (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 06:13PM 04-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSSNQXV*)

Well i have just got in from work and it is surprising to see what can develop in a day. We have gone from a wave to a 60mph Tropical Storm... pretty impressive. And Alberto does look pretty descent on imagery. My guess is a course to the northern most islands of the Carribean, then the Bahamas, but who knows.
Of more interest to me is the system southsoutheast of Bermuda. I know SLP is 1023mb but the system loks impressive on both visual and ir imagery. The convection is concentrated around the centre of the system, which on the latest ir imagery looks distinctly like an eye! This caught my attention earlier yesterday when the low broke away from the front it was on.... even then it looked impressive. It has held well and will move southward into a more favourable environment.... i think this one may surprise us all and flare up quickly. I see forecast central pressure of this low is a drop to 1015mb in 24 hours.. interesting to see how she will look then!
And the activity in the Carribean has onceagain looked interesting... could this be the regeneration of the lowlevel swirl we saw in the Atlantic a few days ago? Perhaps, and it looks like it may start turning again, with indications of some cyclonic curvature.
Personally, I know Alberto is present, but i would be more worried about the Bermuda low, and the activity in the Caribbean, these could just as well develop, and pose a threat by being closer to land too. Well we will just have to watch!
Agree with Richard (#6)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 06:19PM 04-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Right on Richard, agree with you 100%.

IHS,

cm
Agree with Richard (#7)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 06:19PM 04-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Right on Richard, agree with you 100%.

IHS,

cm
OOPS! (#8)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 06:27PM 04-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

The server returned a message and said the message could not post (note to C bros), but obviosuly it posted twice!

IHS,

Bill
Fixing that now! (#9)
Posted by: John (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, Fl
Posted On 06:53PM 04-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)

Sorry
Test (#10)
Posted by: John Location: CFHC
Posted On 07:23PM 04-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)

Test
Test works (#11)
Posted by: John Location: CFHC
Posted On 07:26PM 04-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)

yep
Bermuda and Alberto (#12)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 08:15PM 04-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)

Alberto still looks good. The long term models are very interesting too. But speculation on them is a little early at the moment for the main page. Here is free form, though.


Alberto will need to be watched. Especially if it holds together through the next two days.


The system SE of Bermuda is a wildcard that will have to be watched. It isn't looking as good as it was earlier, but time will tell on this too.


Thanks for all the insight all, this will become invaluable when the storms get closer.


- Mike C.
albertos track (#13)
Posted by: bryan
Posted On 09:28PM 04-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNUW*)

I went into the forcast models and i do agree, that this one will probably come really close, or even strike the southeast U.S. One thing that struck me as really odd was that the ridge axis that blocks the storms is still in place after the 10 day forecast and they still project that alberto will turn out by cape hatteras, however i was wondering if the troughs that turn the hurricanes out to sea are in canada , and do not budge the axis how can they say that this hurricane will turn out to sea in my opionion, florida might experience its first major hurricane since andrew on the east side , please give me your opionion i do agree strongly with u that this one will be slow to take the turn , or if it will even turn at all. thanks bryan.
Where Would we Be!!! (#14)
Posted by: jerry reed
Posted On 10:39PM 04-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNQUVNRTPNRSX*)

Mike C. < We sure have missed ya!! Where would we be w/o you. Keep up the killer work cuz.
Other Possible Systems (#15)
Posted by: Mitch McCauslin (http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/weather.html) Location: Cape Canaveral, FL
Posted On 11:20PM 04-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRPNVS*)

Besides Alberto, there are two other interesting systems. The system ESE of Bermuda has been fluctuating today, but this evening it appears there is a burst of convection near the center of the well defined circulation. We will just have to see if this is maintained. Finally, the TPC is recognizing this system. Also, there has been a burst of convection around 17N 43W (WNW of Alberto). There appears to be some circulation near the convection. If the convection builds or holds together, this too, may be something to watch. Visible images tomorrow will help to show what is going on there.
Alberto- - Others (#16)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 12:30AM 05-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNWX*)

Alberto is looking like a thing of beauty on the 345Z cIR image...bright red in the center...good outflow...much better than just a few hours ago when I thought it was struggling. Now that it's got it's feet wet, it should move in a general west heading, maybe slightly N of W, but will eventually take on a due westward motion due to high pressure building N and W. Any weather forecaster that thinks they have a beat on where it's going is a fool. I saw two that already turn it north out to sea after 72 hours...hogwash! It's much to early to tell at this point...maybe after the weekend we can start to get an IDEA of where it's going. Meanwhile, I continue to be impressed by the wave at 44N/15.5W or thereabouts. Convection is building, and it appears that a tight circulation is forming/structure looks great. If this trend continues for the next 6-12 hours i think we'll have depression #4 soon. Other than that, the low se of bermuda may slowly develop...we'll see. The caribbean system I have my doubts about. cheers.
bermuda swirl (#17)
Posted by: troy Location: titusville
Posted On 02:50AM 05-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVNTVNYV*)

i too have been watching that low just south and east of bermuda. while it looks impressive neither the local weather nor the WC will step to the side to get a better view of it. while not a so called prime area for development its not at all uncommon. will be fun to watch...
And he strengthens! (#18)
Posted by: Richard B (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 05:08AM 05-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQWSNQXQ*)

Well the latest from NHC is Alberto is still strengthening with sustained winds at 65mph, and a central pressure of 994mb. He might become a hurricane later today they say!
However i am still watching the system southeast of Bermuda. Although it does not appear to be developing at this time it still looks pretty good on the latest IR Imagery, but i will wait to see todays visible imagery too. Windshear is inhibiting this system from significant development at the moment with convection east of the circulation centre. However this shear should weaken within 24-36 hours, and the system should continue heading southwards. It would not surprise me if it developed into a tropical or sub-tropical deprression within about 48 hours. And with steering currents taking the storm in a more westerly direction in about 48 hours i think this system will be well worth watching. It is closer to any land areas than Alberto too, and if it develops i think it wil pose a threat to the US sooner than Alberto. I will be watching this sytem with interest!
And i wont forget Alberto... could be a hurricane later today, and those in the northeastern Caribbean might want to start watching his progress... he might get there in about 5 days.

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