Tropical Storm Allison
Updated 10:15PM - Originally
05:58 PM EDT - 05 June 2001
Mike's 10:15PM Update:
Allison is causing quite a bit of flooding problems in coastal texas and bringing bad weather to the area. The center is exposed and still just offshore, and all the convection is to the north and west. Allison won't strengthen anymore since it's getting pulled apart to the north.
It's an interesting wake up call to realize that we've already had the first named storm. It caught are system unprepared (See Tropical Storm "Intermediate" an NHC wording problem) This blew my prediction of no named systems in June, but plenty of others suggested it could be possible for some other reasons which were just as valid. I won't do any crawfishing with that. The average is every other year for a June storm, and we got it this "other year". This has no bearing on the rest of the season, though. The Gulf and Western Caribbean is the climatological most likely spot for these storms in June.
The source of Allison was an area that slipped over central america, festerd over the bay of campeche for a while and then looked to fall apart. However, it managed to make a rather amazing comeback overnight and became a strange hybrid like tropical system and eventually a tropical storm. This near rogue storm emphasized just how quickly the situation can change within the tropics sometimes, and why it's worth it to check up on it from time to time.
John's original Update:
Early season Tropical Depression Allison (First named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season)has formed in the western Gulf of Mexico along the Texas coast and is moving to the north near 12 mph. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF COASTS FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.
Strengthening?? Keep those comments coming.
Joe Bastardi's season predictions should be up today.
The Weather Channel's Storm week focuses on Hurricanes tonight at 9PM EDT.
Satellite images at:
[Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible
Loop - Infrared
Loop - Water
Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Some Forecast models:
(NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET
- [jc]
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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #4 (of 4 total)
Rainman
(#1)
Posted by: Rick Davis (http://www.flhurricane.com/rad/)
Location: St. Petersburg FL
Posted On 06:38PM 05-Jun-2001
with id (RTNYRNQYSNQQW*)
TEST
Bay of Campeche
(#2)
Posted by: Rick Davis (http://www.flhurricane.com/rad/)
Location: St. Petersburg FL
Posted On 10:12PM 06-Jun-2001
with id (RTNYRNQYSNQSW*)
Something else brewing in the Bay ? Check it out ! http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie.pl?sat+jpg+10tttt+512+600+texas+mb
Atlantic Wave
(#3)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 10:38PM 06-Jun-2001
with id (VTNQRNQPSNQUX*)
Don't exactly agree that early storm development has no bearing on the rest of the season. IMO it can, but doesn't have to necessarily. It can change the character of the atmosphere and force atmospheric changes that affect the building of ridges and troughs throughout the globe. Allison has now taken the heart out of the building trough in the east as well as lifted the ITCZ well north. It could all settle back to the way it was previously, but it has disturbed something. The fact that the storm did form says something about the lightening of the winds in the upper atmosphere, which could signal an above average season. Currently the tropical wave in the atlantic clearly has a chance for development, albeit small. Upper level winds are favorable for development and the 1011mb low seems to be keeping a broad circulation. A high Pressure system to its NW should provide a good environment for development, but SSTs certainly can be an issue. But if it stays below 10n for the next 2 days it may make it into the Caribbean. I think we will engage in this season earlier. I'm not saying it will be like '95, but maybe not that far behind. Let's see what tomorrow brings with this wave. Cheers!!
Comments on Allison remnant
(#4)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 03:33AM 09-Jun-2001
with id (QURNQVSNRPQNQXQ*)
Well, there's been a lot of speculation about whether or not Allison's remnants will make it into the Gulf, and as to whether it will develop if it does enter the Gulf. Here are my thoughts, based on a cursory overview.
SSTs: adequate to sustain a tropical system of weak to moderate strength
Shear: Most models agree that the shear will remain light through 24 hrs, after which the situation may become more hostile.
Movement: The leading forecasts have maintained "Allison" on a SSW track. However, the track over the last 6 hours or so definitely seems more southward, perhaps even with a slight easterly component (though this may be an artifact, I admit).
Durability: If Allison were moving a little more quickly, than this might be a giveaway (right!). However, the system's very slow and erratic movement raises many doubts.
It may indeed make it to the Gulf, but be too degraded to reform. Or it may resume a more SSW track Saturday, and miss the open water altogether. If the center misses the water, no amount of inflow from over the Gulf inland will be enough to trigger a true comeback.
So, this part is pure speculation. Allison's envelope and circulation have held together remarkably well over the last few days; I think the system has at least a day or two of continued spin in its future.
Models: Not one of the global models reintensify Allison over the Gulf, and some dissipate it over land. Though I rarely trust the models when it comes to TC cyclogenesis, the unanimity of the output should be taken very seriously.
Statistics: Of course, its statistically unlikely that Allison will reform. As I wrote earlier, even if it does reach the water, there's no guarantee that it will regenerate. However, I'm sure that stranger things have happened in the met. world, so I'll take a cautious, wait-and-see attitude. Being a Texan, I'll certainly keep an eye on it.
Overall prospects: poor
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