CFHC Talkback For News Story #41:
Newest Talkback: 06:27 PM 08-08 EDT

A Wave and a Low
11:47 AM EDT - 08 August 2000

The auto-updating is having a problem this morning. Hopefully it will be working a little bit later. We have the links and the storm spotlight for alternates. Since it is hosed at the moment, I will summarize:
I should restate that I don't think Alberto will make landfall, and that it will probably remain a fish spinner.

The low previously over the Yucatan is now back in the Gulf (Bay of Campeche). It has to get its act together to form into a depression.

Of course, more interest to us in Florida are the two systems east of us. One which is around 400 miles East of Cape Canaveral, and the other which is east of the Bahamas.
The smaller one (East of Cape Canaveral) is looking, well, small. It really hasn't done much.
The other, however, is looking very impressive now. It could become a depression late today, or more likely tomorrow. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are en route to both of these, I look forward to their data.

"Live Chat" has been added to the left menu. My time in there will be infrequent, but John probably be around. All are welcome to use that.

Comments? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #19 (of 19 total)
East of the Bahamas! (#1)
Posted by: DrHurricane
Posted On 01:01PM 08-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQXS*)

It's looking good, Florida better keep an eye on it and so should the Northern Gulf Coast, kinda reminds me of Erin in 1995.
Alberto (#2)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:25PM 08-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNWX*)

Anyone but me see an eye trying to form on the latest visible picture? Maybe I am seeing things. I often do that...lol
Eye!? (#3)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 01:45PM 08-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Colleen-

No, don't thing you are seeing things. Think the storm is undergoing some sort of reorganization.

Sharp eyes , Colleen!

IHS,

BIll
eye (#4)
Posted by: alan (http://%00) Location: orlando
Posted On 01:52PM 08-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

Boy, it sure does look like an eye. I'm really surprised the hurricane center hasn't said this is a tropical depression. After all, one of the local weather people said there were ships reporting 35 mph winds a couple of days ago, they just couldn't find a center.
I don't know about you all, but I'm really anxious to find out what the hurricane hunters discover when they are out there.
This storm looks really threatening to Florida and I don't think anyone's going to be ready because all the attention is on Alberto and it's going to be a quick form.
Here's my strictly amatuer and gut feeling. It seems that Florida should see some affects of a minor hurricane or a strong tropical storm by Friday.
Alberto/Bahamas Wave (#5)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:03PM 08-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNVV*)

Thanks Bill...glad I am not seeing things!!! Alan, sorry didn't mean to confuse you, I was talking about an eye forming with Alberto...although I just watched the latest on TWC about the Bahamas area and they think they have now located the LLCC and it looks like it is moving w/nw but with a more westerly component to it....they said they are starting to get some of the info back now from the recon plane out there looking at it...and they seem more concerned with it now than they did yesterday, as is the case with Alberto. Guess we will have to watch and see. I think they both have an enormous amount of potential, if you ask me. Colleen
Eye (#6)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 02:04PM 08-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

I was referring to Alberto, not the system east of Florida, re: eye.

Seems like the system east of Florida is going through another disorganization, but there is a flare up on the west side.

Looks like the low in the very southern Bay of Campeche is a non-starter, not going over the water.

The tiny low east of the Cape is still there, but doesn't look like much.

Looks like Alberto may be taking a more NW course, at least temporarily.

And a new, potent looking wave is about to move off Africa....

must be August, yes?

IHS,

BIll
Eye (#7)
Posted by: alan (http://%00) Location: orlando
Posted On 02:08PM 08-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

It sure does get confusing when we're talking about so many storms. You're right, the eye on Alberto looks good. It's the first time that we've seen an actual eye.
I still believe in my posting on the bahamas storm, however. It is looking like there is less shear and some more rotation.

Eyes (#8)
Posted by: Duncan Mitre Location: Winter Park, FL
Posted On 02:09PM 08-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNSPNWTNYS*)

I also see that Eye on Alberto. What about that circulation east of Cape Canaveral? WIll that just make it rainy? What's the latest from the planes flying in?


Beryl (#9)
Posted by: alan Location: orlando
Posted On 02:18PM 08-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

Has anyone ever met a woman named Beryl? Sometimes you just have to wonder where they get these names from.
Recon data? (#10)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 02:20PM 08-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Anyone able to access this? I can't find it.

Thanks,

IHS,

Bill
Recon reports (#11)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 02:43PM 08-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Think I found one at the FSU site, indicates s winds at 22 kts at about 22N, 69 W..I think!

IHS,

cm
Recon (#12)
Posted by: Rich Location: Satellite Beach
Posted On 02:48PM 08-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNQYVNQTS*)

You can got to the hurricane hunters homepage and get some of the reports. Some links don't work but the hourly archive does. You just have to know how to read them. Its http://www.keesler.af.mil/index1.html

BTW, I'm not the "Rich" that tried to give you guys a hard time yesterday! I love the different, and usually correct, info you give.
TWC (#13)
Posted by: alan Location: orlando
Posted On 03:09PM 08-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

Did the Weather Channel say anything new during the latest tropical update? I'm at work and don't have access to a television.
Bahamas (#14)
Posted by: DrHurricane
Posted On 03:14PM 08-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQXV*)

Could it be another Erin? Maybe but if I were Florida and the North Gulf Coast I would watch it very closely!
Tropical Disturbance east of Fl- Recon report (#15)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 03:51PM 08-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

NHC just put out a special tropical disturbance report, the tiny system east of Florida has 30-35 mph winds near the center, but lacks convection at this time. NHC says that if convection fires up a tropical depression or tropical storm could form. They advise all interests in the N Bahamas and FLORIDA EAST COAST to carefully monitor the situation. Looks Like Richard and I have been right on id'ing this systems and following it. I'd say it probably already has been a td once ot wice, maybe will be again.

No report received yet abou the bigger system east of the Bahamas.
Beryl? (#16)
Posted by: Richard B (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 05:38PM 08-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSWNQXT*)

Well how long have i been on about that 'Bermuda Low'? It hass been around for days... and it looks like it may soon be better known by the name Beryl. Thats right! Beryl! It is currently located 400 miles east of Cape Canaveral, and a Air Force Recon Flight found sustained surface winds of 30-35 mph, near the centre. However convection was not really present then, so NHC issued a 'Special Tropical Disturbance Statement' HBut convection has really flared up again, and i think we may see this system upgraded to a tropical depression, if not a tropical storm, very shortly! All of you in the northern Bahamas, and the east coast of Florida should watch this small area for further development!
The wave to the east of the Bahamas has become much better organised with a large area of strong convection, and i think this too may develop, and once again those in the bahamas and florida need to watch this area closely.
And finally the sytem in the far SW Gulf of Mexico. It does not look as promising as it did earlier, but NHC say a depression could form within 48 hours, so we need to waytch this area closely.
any way, sorry i cant go into more detail, but i have to go... take care all.

beryl?, bahamas? (#17)
Posted by: troy Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 06:01PM 08-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVNTVNXW*)

Watching the old 'bermuda low" and the wave just east of the bahamas, I am wondering the if they are impeeding each other or if they just might have a chgance to 'blend' so to speak. it seems that the only thing keeping the more noerthern low from becoming classified is a lack of convection.

any ideas? past storm history to guess by??

troy
Local Forecasters are saying larger wave wont come to FL (#18)
Posted by: OrlandoDude Location: O-Town
Posted On 06:11PM 08-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWXNRSQNWV*)

According to Channel 6 in Orlando they are stating that the larger of the two waves wont come to Florida. "Pamela Brady" states the smaller and larger systems are repelling each other, therefore, the smaller system may make it here, but the larger one will not.. I am not saying I agree with her forecast, I am just repeating it..
Forecasters (#19)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 06:27PM 08-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNUT*)

Funny, because the NHC thinks the "SMALLER" one could develop into a tropical d or storm, but that the aircraft hunters found no circulation on the "bigger" ONE. I THINK THEY ARE AS CONFUSED AS WE ARE.
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