CFHC Talkback For News Story #52:
Newest Talkback: 01:30 AM 08-16 EDT

Hurricane Warnings From La Pesca,MX to Baffin Bay, TX
10:59 AM EDT - 14 August 2000

Beryl is expected to make landfall as a hurricane.

Folks along the Mexican and Texas coasts will need to listen closely to local official sources as things progress. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with Beryl.

There is an interesting looking area east of Virginia as well (east of the Chesapeake bay area) that requires watching.



Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #27 (of 27 total)
System off Va (#1)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 11:14AM 14-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

The system has an elongated central core, with two apparent circulation centers, almost looks like it has two eyes?!

Anyone has any insight on my previous post (under the proven wrong heading) about the system south of Nova Scotia) , thoughts appreciated.

Pegged Beryl as to location and intensity!

IHS,

cm


Thanks (#2)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Orlando, FL (Currently)
Posted On 11:34AM 14-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNSPNWTNRTU*)

Thanks for the heads up on that. I mentioned it a bit in this article. I'll be updating this one most of the day when I get info rather than making new headings.
Hurricane Warning (#3)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 01:57PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSSNYW*)

As you no doubt are aware the NHC and Government of Mexico have issued Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings. I have also issued watches and warnings on my website, but these differ slightly to the official ones. This is because i feel that Beryl may take a slightly more northerly track than forecast. But please remember to always follow the OFFICIAL information, rather than information provided by unofficial sites and sources.
I think that even though high winds, probably of hurricane intensity, and high seas will cause many dangers and much damage, the biggest threat from Beryl will be rainfall. The storm is moving very slowly which is allowing plenty of time for it to pick up and drop vast amounts of moisture. NHC predict 5-10 inches of rain, but i think we will see totals easily in excess of 12 inches, maybe as high as 15 inches or more! Flash flooding will be a problem, and danger, not only along the coast but inland too. All people in the path of this storm should take precautions to protect life and property now. Tropical Storm conditions may last for many hours as winds of tropical storm strength already extend out to 105 miles from the centre, and the system is only moving at 6 miles an hour! This system needs to be monitored VERY closely as it progresses towards the coast, it is a dangerous storm!
I also think we may see our 6th TD shortly. Either from the wave off Africa, or from the area off the Virginia coast. The Virginia area looks good with definite banding evident but i have not had chance to look at it in any detail.
Any way must dash, take care, especiaslly those of you in the path of Beryl!
TD off VA coast (#4)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 02:33PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Richard-

I agree with your assessment re: Va coast low, however, I do note that water temps in the area are running in the low to mid 70s, tailing off to 60s off Mass. I think a subtropical storm is more likely. I wonder if NHC will declare it so, since their hands are busy with Beryl at this time?

I continur to note the curious low cloud swirl off Nova Scotia too. YOu can only see it in the detailed vis Goes pics. What do you (or anyone else) think?

IHS,

Bill


seems like Beryl is having a hrd time deciding to stay a ts...cp is 29.80- and it is 'disorganized'.
Comment on Beryl (#5)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 02:49PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQUR*)

With all due respect, Richard, I expect the track to be slightly farther south than the NHC's forecast. This system has shown a tendency to track just south of the NHC forecast, a trend that may continue until landfall. You're right, though; its slow rate of movement will present the threat of heavy rains. Landfall should be nearer La Pesca than Brownsville.
The Psycho Storm (#6)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 03:23PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNTY*)

A pesky upper level swirl southeast of Brownsville near 25N 96W has given Beryl (and probably NHC and every forecaster east of the Rockies) a split personality. One center of energy shifted northward to about 26.5N 93W at 18Z and is moving to the northwest. Satellite re-analysis suggests that the primary center has not budged from 23N for the past 24 hours and is now at 23.0N 96.0W (18Z) and still moving off to the west at 10mph. Past positions on this center are as follows (wind speed in knots):
13/18Z 23.0 93.0 30
21Z 23.0 93.1 30
14/00Z 23.0 93.3 30
03Z 23.0 93.6 30
06Z 23.0 94.0 35
09Z 23.0 94.5 40
12Z 23.0 95.0 45
15Z 23.0 95.5 45
18Z 23.0 96.0 45

If the RECON had investigated further south, I imagine that they would have found a central pressure of around 1005mb. Its not uncommon for embryonic tropical cyclones to have multiple centers and if you latch on to the wrong one...oops! Still some chance for additional intensification, but this storm is rapidly running out of time and ocean.
Cheers,
ED
The VA Low (#7)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 03:30PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNTY*)

This system originated over land and moved offshore the NC/VA border so its extratropical (but you'll probably have a hard time convincing the folks in New Jersey of that - some places got 14 inches of rain). Given its non-tropical origin, I doubt that NHC will do anything with it.
Cheers,
ED
that other low (#8)
Posted by: Frank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 03:40PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNRURNQXSNRRU*)

remember that little low that looked like a borderline tropical system (it went by the mid atlantic states on saturday)? ed provided compelling evidence with that ship report that it was in fact a weak tropical storm, but the official guys at the nhc never classified it. i think that the swirl off the canadian maritimes that bill is mentioning is that same system. wouldnt be surprised if after the season if the nhc post analysis includes an unnamed tropical storm off the east coast. whatcha think, bill n ed?
Systems and such (#9)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 04:00PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Hi all-

No, the swirl I have been discussing today just off Nova Scotia/Newfoundland is not the same unnamed TS that was referred to in the previous post by Jim, I believe it was...the unnamed storm is tagging along behind Alberto, about 10 degrees further east than the system (off Nova) I am writing about.

On another note...thanks Ed for the discussion on the 'split personlities' of Beryl. I was going ask what was going on with the big plume of Beryl moisture streaming off to the NE. You explained it very well,and I agree, storm is running out of ocean. However, if it stalls....

Meanwhile, big system to the east. What dou yo think of it Ed? ( and others)

Thanks all...

IHS,

Bill


Beryl (#10)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Orlando, FL (Currently)
Posted On 04:22PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNSPNWTNVW*)

Beryl now looks like its center is much closer to land than previously thought. That makes it more likely to affect Mexico than North of Brownsville. It does seem split, which is strange too. Wait and see, I guess.

The system east of Virginia does look mostly extratropical, but still appears interesting.

The spin off from Alberto I don't know about. What is the sst's around there?
Beryl (#11)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 04:28PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Ed-

it also seems that the high ridge is, as discussed by TPC/NHC, nosing over from Cuba,this is apparent from the latest VIS shots..this is adding to the split personality aspect of Beryl. Looks like some of the moisture to the NE of the center may end up over the N Gulf, maybe even Florida.

Is that pesky little low to the NW of Beryl the upper low that was over the BOC earlier this week?

I say this..like Colleen and others have said, looks like it's going to be a weird season.

This Beryl is like the last one, except it struck the Florida Phandle.

IHS,

Bill

Thoughts?

IHS,

Bill
East/Central Atlantic Wave (#12)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 04:29PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

I posted on another site earlier on this so I don't want to be repetitive, but the large system to the east appears to be slowly turning the crank and we could have a TD or Storm in the next 24 hours. This is a large area of developing circulation..and will have to be monitored as it moves westward at a good clip (reminds me of Gloria in it's size) but she was cranked when she came off Africa..should be fun to watch.
ATL system (#13)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 04:37PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

I think there is more apparent cranking going on than there really is. The VIS pics don't show much convection, and the circulation (there is one) is so large and diffuse, believe it will be at least 48-72 before any significant development (ie, td formation) will occur, if at all.

However, it is the system to watch at the moment (besides Beryl, that is).

IHS,

Charles
Beryl (#14)
Posted by: Joe
Posted On 04:39PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNQQUNRSWNUX*)

Looks like the center should stay South of Brownsville Texas.I do not think it will reach Hurricane strength.Because its running out of Ocean.
Other Systems (#15)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 05:21PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNTY*)

The Un-named Storm: Bill is correct in that the swirl at the very end of Alberto's main feeder band is indeed the storm that should have been named Beryl. I just plowed through the satellite archives at NRL Monterey and this system had a tropical origin and certainly was a minimal tropical storm a couple of days ago. Its the one that NHC said would soon become extra-tropical so they never bothered with it. The classification of a questionable tropical system is often left to the dedication of whoever is on duty at NHC, but thats a whole story in itself and probably not appropriate for this forum. Most of the NHC meteorologists do a superb job under what can become very trying conditions (this morning is probably a good example), but just like any profession, there are exceptions (the politics and personalities stuff). I don't think that this system will ever get upgraded (although I agree with you that it should).

Nova Scotia: This actually appears to be the semi-permanent Icelandic Low. It drifts westward in the summer - and this is an unusual summer - the pattern is more like October rather than August. The un-named storm slipped under this system as it moved to the east southeast. I spent a year at Keflavik a long time ago, so the Icelandic Low and I became good (?) buddies!

The Atlantic Waves: The one near 20N 54W may have drifted too far to the north. It hasn't done much, but I'm not ready to rule it out yet. The one near 12N 35W will probably become Chris, but it will take a few more days before that happens. This one will stay a lot more to the south as it crosses the Atlantic (my son's middle name is Chris, so I'm already worried).

Beryl: It'll be interesting to see which low center NHC will track. I'll bet that they will pick the northern one (26.2 96.0) rather than the southern one (23.0 97.0) since it would fit better with their coordinates to date. One of the centers is destined to be ignored - sort of an unwritten NWS rule - no more than one tropical cyclone in the Gulf at any one time (I guess its a real estate thing which I don't happen to agree with). Bulletin is probably out by now, so time for me to check it out.

Thanks for the kind words - hope this mess has helped.
Cheers,
ED
beryl peoples comments (#16)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn,com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 05:42PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (VSNSYNSWNTP*)

interesting comments people made about the systems out there.,,,,,I've updated my site also to tell you what i feel will happen,,,feel free to browse it,....in a short detail here,,,I still feel beryl will not become a hurricane and come inland at least 100 miles south of the Texas border....this is due to the high pressure ridge along the gulf coast states. So a WNW dirft is likly and pressure should be around 1000-1002mb at landfall. My thoughts on the other sytems are there is none to discuss at this time,,,VA low is extropical,,and will move ENE out to sea and the weak low ENE of the islands might become better organized in the next day or two....quote might.
http://msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER
Odds & Ends (#17)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 06:21PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNTY*)

Bill et al:
The upper level eddy is at 24.8N 97.1W and shows up nicely on the latest NRL closeups. I hope its just a wobble, but I'm concerned that this low might be drawing the southern center more to the north northwest - and that's not good. The winds in the southern center appear to have increased and the westward component has slowed considerably in the past couple of hours - often typical as these systems approach land in the western Gulf (or northern Gulf for that matter). Gonna really see some scrambling if this thing develops an eye in the next couple of hours. Some good comments - excellent food for thought - regarding the northern center and its moisture. The ridge axis building westward from Cuba (actually its long past Cuba already) may be undercutting at least the southern center and helping to shove it more northward - I'll have to give this another look later this evening.
Cheers,
ED
Beryl wont be a Hurricane? (#18)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 06:54PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNTPNQXT*)

Well i have dropped the Hurricane Warning on my site, and replaced it with a TS Warning and Hurricane Watch. I still think it is possible for Beryl to attain hurricane intensity, but with little time left over water, and being so poorly organised it is unlikely. I notice, like everyone else, that she appears to have two distinct 'Centres'. Both are surrounded by convection, and both contain tropical storm force winds, but which one will go where? If NHC continue to follow the southern centre then the storm will go inland south of the border, but there will be a significant area of tropical storm conditions to the north, hence why i have maintained a tropical storm warning up the Texas coast to Port Lavaca.
Beryl appears to be following this seasons pattern by being extremely unpredictable, difficult, and unusual!
A good example of this season being so unusual was the small TD 4, but also the un-named TS that trailed behind Alberto. What will we have next
Cape Verde wave bears watching (#19)
Posted by: Perry Williams (http://N/A) Location: Douglasville, Georgia
Posted On 07:13PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNRTPNRPPNQQS*)

Beryl's main threat will be very heavy rain over NE Mexico and extreme South Texas. The event to monitor closely the next few days is an impressive tropical wave centered near 13N 31.5W late this afternoon. It is very large and reminds me a lot of Georges two years ago. Several forecast models--especially the AVN have been all over this for three days--forecasting vigorous development. It is also in a very light shear area--and is forecast to remain in this favorable enviroment for the next several days. It is nearly late August--prime time for Cape Vwede storms--and this wave is a prime candidate to be the next tropical storm--and hurricane.
Thanks, Perry
Beryl IR (#20)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 09:08PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNSS*)

The 0015Z IR closeup out of NRL sure makes it easy to find the center. The aircraft was at 27 and 97.1 and the IR indicates 23.6 and 97.4. The aircraft reported 45 knots, but given the distance that it was removed from the actual center, the winds around the center are probably at least 55 knots, maybe 60. Anybody know how to find some surface obs from northeast Mexico?
Cheers,
ED
That southern blob has to be the real beryl (#21)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 09:26PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQWSNQP*)

lookoing at close ups of IR satelite i am convinced that the real beryl is now making land fall in mexico. On the close up you can see a distinctive circle feeder bandish shape getting stronger higher and colder the closer you go to the center of it, and a little area of weaker convection at the center of stongest convection i beleive the nhc is tracking wrong the system and that mxico is being hammered right now
I belive your right (#22)
Posted by: John C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 10:09PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)

Robert, I am with you 100% on that last comment.
Beryl Track (#23)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 01:15AM 15-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQYQ*)

As I expected, the track remained a tad south of the NHC forecast, and landfall will be near La Pesca rather than Brownsville. Of course, it was a simple track, and I'm not going to overstate its importance, or lack thereof. Nothing to do now but chill and collect wx observations from the coast.
Shortlived! (#24)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 05:42AM 15-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSSNRX*)

Well Beryl is inland. She followed a more southerly track than i anticipated, but that many of you correctly predicted. I will be dropping all tropical storm warnings on my site at 12:00 UTC today.
I belevie, like many of you, that the wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles will be our next system, and it will bear watching closely for development over the next few days.
Any way, good call by many of you on Beryl!
Take care folks :)
Alberto Heading South/SW? (#25)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:47AM 15-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQWVNQYXNRSU*)

Ok,guys this is the strangest storm I have ever seen...it is now moving s/sw, and although they are saying it will NOT BE a threat to the US MAINLAND, what effect, if any, will it have on the other 2 systems out there? My other question is this: how can they be so positive that it won't have any effect? Just curious, as this season has seen some rather strange things, and this is just one of them. Any comments are appreciated....thanks, Colleen
alberto (#26)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 01:40PM 15-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)

alberto is moving around the big high pressure system in the middle atlantic. it will eventually turn back north and then northeastward again. I am also curious as to the effect it will have on the other two systems.
Re Alberto Interaction w/ other Systems (#27)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 01:30AM 16-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNUY*)

Alberto will almost certainly have no impact on the disturbances currently traversing the Atlantic. Alberto is far away, and the subtropical ridge will keep it well to the north of the disturbances.
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