CFHC Talkback For News Story #52:
Newest Talkback: 01:30 AM 08-16 EDT

Hurricane Warnings From La Pesca,MX to Baffin Bay, TX
10:59 AM EDT - 14 August 2000

Beryl is expected to make landfall as a hurricane.

Folks along the Mexican and Texas coasts will need to listen closely to local official sources as things progress. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with Beryl.

There is an interesting looking area east of Virginia as well (east of the Chesapeake bay area) that requires watching.



Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #6 (of 27 total)
System off Va (#1)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 11:14AM 14-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

The system has an elongated central core, with two apparent circulation centers, almost looks like it has two eyes?!

Anyone has any insight on my previous post (under the proven wrong heading) about the system south of Nova Scotia) , thoughts appreciated.

Pegged Beryl as to location and intensity!

IHS,

cm


Thanks (#2)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Orlando, FL (Currently)
Posted On 11:34AM 14-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNSPNWTNRTU*)

Thanks for the heads up on that. I mentioned it a bit in this article. I'll be updating this one most of the day when I get info rather than making new headings.
Hurricane Warning (#3)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 01:57PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSSNYW*)

As you no doubt are aware the NHC and Government of Mexico have issued Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings. I have also issued watches and warnings on my website, but these differ slightly to the official ones. This is because i feel that Beryl may take a slightly more northerly track than forecast. But please remember to always follow the OFFICIAL information, rather than information provided by unofficial sites and sources.
I think that even though high winds, probably of hurricane intensity, and high seas will cause many dangers and much damage, the biggest threat from Beryl will be rainfall. The storm is moving very slowly which is allowing plenty of time for it to pick up and drop vast amounts of moisture. NHC predict 5-10 inches of rain, but i think we will see totals easily in excess of 12 inches, maybe as high as 15 inches or more! Flash flooding will be a problem, and danger, not only along the coast but inland too. All people in the path of this storm should take precautions to protect life and property now. Tropical Storm conditions may last for many hours as winds of tropical storm strength already extend out to 105 miles from the centre, and the system is only moving at 6 miles an hour! This system needs to be monitored VERY closely as it progresses towards the coast, it is a dangerous storm!
I also think we may see our 6th TD shortly. Either from the wave off Africa, or from the area off the Virginia coast. The Virginia area looks good with definite banding evident but i have not had chance to look at it in any detail.
Any way must dash, take care, especiaslly those of you in the path of Beryl!
TD off VA coast (#4)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 02:33PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Richard-

I agree with your assessment re: Va coast low, however, I do note that water temps in the area are running in the low to mid 70s, tailing off to 60s off Mass. I think a subtropical storm is more likely. I wonder if NHC will declare it so, since their hands are busy with Beryl at this time?

I continur to note the curious low cloud swirl off Nova Scotia too. YOu can only see it in the detailed vis Goes pics. What do you (or anyone else) think?

IHS,

Bill


seems like Beryl is having a hrd time deciding to stay a ts...cp is 29.80- and it is 'disorganized'.
Comment on Beryl (#5)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 02:49PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQUR*)

With all due respect, Richard, I expect the track to be slightly farther south than the NHC's forecast. This system has shown a tendency to track just south of the NHC forecast, a trend that may continue until landfall. You're right, though; its slow rate of movement will present the threat of heavy rains. Landfall should be nearer La Pesca than Brownsville.
The Psycho Storm (#6)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 03:23PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNTY*)

A pesky upper level swirl southeast of Brownsville near 25N 96W has given Beryl (and probably NHC and every forecaster east of the Rockies) a split personality. One center of energy shifted northward to about 26.5N 93W at 18Z and is moving to the northwest. Satellite re-analysis suggests that the primary center has not budged from 23N for the past 24 hours and is now at 23.0N 96.0W (18Z) and still moving off to the west at 10mph. Past positions on this center are as follows (wind speed in knots):
13/18Z 23.0 93.0 30
21Z 23.0 93.1 30
14/00Z 23.0 93.3 30
03Z 23.0 93.6 30
06Z 23.0 94.0 35
09Z 23.0 94.5 40
12Z 23.0 95.0 45
15Z 23.0 95.5 45
18Z 23.0 96.0 45

If the RECON had investigated further south, I imagine that they would have found a central pressure of around 1005mb. Its not uncommon for embryonic tropical cyclones to have multiple centers and if you latch on to the wrong one...oops! Still some chance for additional intensification, but this storm is rapidly running out of time and ocean.
Cheers,
ED
The VA Low (#7)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 03:30PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNTY*)

This system originated over land and moved offshore the NC/VA border so its extratropical (but you'll probably have a hard time convincing the folks in New Jersey of that - some places got 14 inches of rain). Given its non-tropical origin, I doubt that NHC will do anything with it.
Cheers,
ED
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