CFHC Talkback For News Story #56:
Newest Talkback: 12:51 PM 07-16 EDT

Less on TD#2
09:58 AM EDT - 13 July 2001

The GFDL got it right, the storm did take a nosedive. Tropical Depression Two will not regenerate. It's going to be nothing over the weeekend. Still the front that may stall over the waters next week may make it interesting for us then. But nothing else I can see over the next few days.

The will be lots rain here in Florida today, and less so over the weekend, so have a good weekend folks. NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Accuweather's Joe Bastardi - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #12 (of 12 total)
not as boring as it could be (#1)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 04:29PM 13-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNXU*)

i was a little perplexed by the complete vanishing act td 2 performed, watching the mid level circulation and convective outflow whisked away by easterlies by barbados, leaving an inert looking cloud mass to the rear.. until this afternoon. look around 13N 55W.. theres a low level circulation still trudging along, mostly naked, maybe not totally closed. it wasnt discernible by IR at night.. the ball was under the other cup. a trade wind surge is kicking up a hook of convection on its back flank. until that goes completely away, it still bears monitoring. i say this expecting nothing.. just remembering a couple of very small circulations in the last two years, emily in '99 and td 4 in '00.. which were essentially a swirl with a thunderstorm on a single quadrant at times.
there is nothing imminent to watch. the 2 waves behind former td 2 look fetching, a summer cold front is going to splay itself across florida and all models forecast lows to form along it, and a weak disturbance is crossing the yucatan. five individual spots to watch.. not too slow for july.
STORMY SOUTH (#2)
Posted by: NICK Location: ORLANDO ,FL
Posted On 08:28PM 14-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPTNQXW*)

Is that one of the lows that the models projected to become something/ very large in size and right now satelite pics look very impressive over south florida/ what does anybody think
S FL (#3)
Posted by: StormHound Location: Orlando/FL
Posted On 11:48PM 14-Jul-2001 with id (RTNTYNRRVNYY*)

Looks like normal summertime system over South Florida. Does anybody know how we're doing on our rainfall amounts and / or drought conditions. We've been getting consistent rain for a few weeks now. The last couple of weeks seems to be more than normal, even for central florida. I expect that we're still a long ways from erasing our drought. We should be catching up on our average yearly rainfall, however.
Nifty Swirl (#4)
Posted by: StormHound (http://stormhound.homestead.com) Location: Orlando/FL
Posted On 12:04AM 15-Jul-2001 with id (RTNTYNRRVNYY*)

I don't know how else to describe it except nifty. Hanging out around 50W/30N. Very symmetrical. Not much significance to it, but that's about all there is to look at right now.
still not that boring (#5)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 02:50AM 15-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNXU*)

the swirl at 11n 30w interests me a bit more. its a 1010 at the surface, nhc analysts so assume. if all the subsidence ahead doesnt kill it, could be something in a day or two. the front that punched through to south florida is probably going to give us something to watch when the mid latitude flow pulls away and leaves it to brew over 29-30C waters. oh, the td 2 swirl is history, but the wave right behind it would be a worry if it were a couple degrees further north. the writing is on the wall, we'll probably get a storm within a week. everyone can boo me with spiteful derision if i'm wrong.
Within a week?? (#6)
Posted by: Rich Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 04:40AM 15-Jul-2001 with id (RQSNQRRNQXQNQWP*)

Hank,
i for one will not boo you with hateful derision. I firmly beleive that we will have Barry within the next few days too. The biggest contender i reckon is the wave to the southwest of the CV Islands. Well organised llcc of 1010 mb, but currently over only marginal waters. If it can hold to gether til it reaches warmer climbs, then this thing could really explode. Also, i still have not given up on the remnants of TD 2, although i would be increasingly surprised if anything came of it now. Finally, the front passing over southern Florida could become a player if it stalls out long enough. This week could indeed prove interesting!

Rich
Drought (#7)
Posted by: cane man
Posted On 07:20AM 15-Jul-2001 with id (VSNSVNWSNRTT*)

I live near CLearwater Beach and last I heard we were still around 33 inch below normal rainfall for last 2 years. I think I heard it would take 2 straight summers of consistent rainfall to bring us out of the drought.
More On Drought (#8)
Posted by: StormHound (http://stormhound.homestead.com) Location: Orlando/FL
Posted On 08:37PM 15-Jul-2001 with id (RTNTYNRRVNYY*)

I have been doing some web surfing, looks like the Florida peninsula needs 12-18" of rain to get out of drought conditions. That doesn't mean we'd be back to normal. With all of the features around right now, we may get a foot or so of rain over the next couple of weeks. I expect that we'll all be occupied with a storm or two by midweek.
still nothing, blahdeblah (#9)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 12:01AM 16-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNYY*)

the scenario forecast by several models, a low on each side of florida, has come about.. but from here none of them do much with either low. as the front decays and high pressure builds back in it will act to stifle the low pressure areas, so they are on a timetable. their window of development is dependent on the big upper longwave pulling away.. it isnt in a big hurry to do so.. so both of these lows will have to remain alive and tangible for another 36 hrs or so before they can do anything interesting. the one to the west will get clear sooner.
as for the now 1012 low around 12n 33w.. i dont think it can do much. even with marginal ssts it could develop, the big mitigator is all of the subsidence and the depressed itcz. it has a desert to cross. thunderstorms are hard pressed get going down there, despite the favorable upper level conditions. in august that low would be a hurricane in short order with such an atmosphere and juiced late summer ssts. nrl monterrey seems to be tracking it, for what it's worth. no matter how feisty these waves are when they come off, they cant survive without a higher itcz and less subsidence abuse.
TD #2 coming back to life??? (#10)
Posted by: Tom
Posted On 10:22AM 16-Jul-2001 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Is that the old TD#2 spinning around south of Hispanola...Does it have a chance to come back??
Possible Gulf Storm (#11)
Posted by: Rick D. (http://flhurricane.com/rad/) Location: St. Petersburg FL .
Posted On 12:20PM 16-Jul-2001 with id (VUNSTNXYNQUW*)

Any thoughts on the low pressure in the Gulf Of Mexico ?
Gulf and Carribean (#12)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 12:51PM 16-Jul-2001 with id (QVTNQQQNYSNQSY*)

Both of those areas are looking much more interesting as the day goes on. Not to reiterate what everyone else has been saying, but the key is persistence.
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