CFHC Talkback For News Story #58:
Newest Talkback: 07:21 AM 07-23 EDT

Lets Go for no Named Systems in July!
10:35 AM EDT - 20 July 2001

Right now is the calm before the storm... so instead of talking about all the amazing systems we are watching and a cool sat graphic of it, instead we have the infinitely more interesting photo of a bunch of happy walruses...

Apologies to LtM

We're now shooting for a named storm free July, and it's a much better goal than wanting a storm to show up. Make no mistake, although we enjoy tracking the systems. A record dull year is what I hope for. No landfalls and no majors.

One speck of clouds south of Bermuda... 
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [-*--------------------]

It'll be quiet for a few more days at least. I don't see anything coming up next week either yet. So enjoy the quiet! We'll awaken from slumber eventually, and hopefully not shaken awake. The season really gets moving next month.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Accuweather's Joe Bastardi - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

Show All Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #45 (of 45 total)
Not Sure 'bout that (#1)
Posted by: Steve H
Posted On 11:57AM 20-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNRX*)

I still say watch the Eastern Atlantic. It could give us a Barry withing the next 5 days. Cheers!!
PS (#2)
Posted by: Steve H
Posted On 11:58AM 20-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNRX*)

Like the walrus' though. Cheers!!
Yep (#3)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Orlando, FL (Currently)
Posted On 12:33PM 20-Jul-2001 with id (RPXNVSNQVVNRRX*)

I'd wait a bit more on the Eastern Atlantic. If it were to break "No named storms in July", I agree it would be there.
Man Screwing with nature (#4)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 02:33PM 20-Jul-2001 with id (QRNYTNRQNQVV*)

Jul 19, 2001


Potential Hurricane Modifier Tested off Florida Coast
By Amanda Riddle
Associated Press Writer

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) - A company developing an absorbent powder it says could eventually weaken a hurricane sucked the moisture out of a thunderstorm Thursday in its latest test of the product.

Dyn-O-Mat President J.D. Dutton said the test on a rain cloud 10 miles off the coast of Jupiter was a success. A radar image confirmed that the cloud lost moisture after an airplane dropped the small granules.

The Riviera Beach-based company, which makes environmental absorbent products, said it would try to get federal funding for the next test on a tropical depression.

The project, which aims to eventually be able to reduce a hurricane by 15 mph, has cost the company $1 million.

Hugh Willoughby, hurricane research director at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Miami, said a year ago that the product could be used as a rainmaker but wasn't strong enough to disrupt a hurricane.

At that time, the product absorbed 250 times its own weight in water, but the company developed a stronger product that absorbs 2,000 times its own weight.

Willoughby, however, remained skeptical that the powder could reduce a hurricane's strength by more than a few miles per hour.

"It might be that this stuff would be great for making it rain," he said.

A B-57 Canberra airplane took off from the Palm Beach International Airport on Thursday afternoon. It dropped $40,000 worth of granules into the storm. The granules absorbed the cloud's moisture, then fell into the ocean as a gel-like substance, the company said.

The biodegradable substance dissolves when it comes into contact with the salt water, the company said.

"The people in the tower visually confirmed that there was a tall buildup and the next moment it was gone," said Kevin Sullivan, supervisor of the airport control tower.

Peter Cordani, Dyn-O-Mat's chief executive officer, got the idea in 1998 after using a common gardening product that keeps water near a plant's roots.

Cordani hopes to eventually sell the product to the federal government, which could use planes to drop it into a hurricane as it swirls offshore, removing moisture and weakening the storm before it makes landfall.

"What we're looking to do is to take that tremendous wind sheer out of a hurricane," Dutton said.

Even if the product fails to take the punch out of a hurricane, the company has developed other versions of the polymer it is selling to fight wildfires, retain ground moisture and seed a cloud to make rain.

---

On the Net:

Dyn-O-Mat: www.dynomat.com/index.shtml

AP-ES-07-19-01 1747EDT

This story can be found at : ap.tbo.com/ap/florida/MGAW1Y62DPC.html

SCIENCE journal article:More hurricanes likely (#5)
Posted by: Larry G Location: Raleigh NC
Posted On 05:08PM 20-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNXTNXQNXR*)

MSNBC has an interesting discussion of the above article at:

http://www.msnbc.com/local/rtwpb/m70442.asp

The study suggests that we are in the beginning of a 25-40 year cycle of increased activity for Atlantic hurricanes.

BTW, this is a great forum. Thanks John and Mike, and all of the regular participants.

Back to lurking mode...


dynomat / dyn-o-gel etc (#6)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Orlando, FL (Currently)
Posted On 05:33PM 20-Jul-2001 with id (RPXNVSNQVVNUR*)

Believe it or not, this isn't the first time this story has come up here. It was discussed last year... Take a look at this archived post and talkbacks from it.

http://www.flhurricane.com/cgi-bin/cfhcnews?talkback+117+1+68+2000

DYNA (#7)
Posted by: Steve H
Posted On 07:14PM 20-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPSNQVS*)

Go blow your horn...I'm going to stay out of this discussion for obvious reasons (he said sheepishly) LOL.
Don't not count your chickens.... (#8)
Posted by: Bill Location: Miami
Posted On 08:53PM 20-Jul-2001 with id (QTWNWPNXNQPR*)

Too many days left in July. As much as I'd like there not to be anything happening, I think something will.

Love the walruses.... reminds me of Thanksgiving afternoon!


could it be? (#9)
Posted by: shawn samuels
Posted On 01:41AM 21-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRQWNRQW*)

can someone explain what is happening on the east coast of Florida? are my eyes playing tricks on me?
Cont... (#10)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 02:43AM 21-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQTNQTYNRRX*)

A large complex of t-storms appears to be headed for the Gulf through Alabama. There has also been a blowup in convection in the extreme NE Gulf between Ap'cola and Tampa in the FL Bend. Several models, especially the MRF, have been predicting low pressure in this area for 3-4 days. The trof enhancing these complexes is a backdoor cold front brought down by an upper feature circulating the Ring of Fire.

The problem I see with any development has to do with both complexes firing off around the "Ring of Fire". There is strong Easterly shear around the southern end of this high pressure system which would likely force any potential activity westward too quick to develop. Southeast of Florida is an Upper Low that, if it continues slowly moving NW, may allow for a small window for development in the next 2 or 3 days if any of these complexes survive. This scenario would require the ROF retrograding quickly enough to leave a gap between itself and the approaching upper low pressure.

At least there is slight potential for some downpours. just my three cents

Steve
cont... (#11)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 02:46AM 21-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQTNQTYNRRX*)

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

See for yourself. Put that in motion.

Steve
My bad... (#12)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 02:48AM 21-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQTNQTYNRRX*)

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrir.html

Try that one. Oops.

Me.
Gulf showers (#13)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 03:55AM 21-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQWNQWNQUV*)

So far, the largest pressure drop has been at bouy #42039. Here were the 2am readings: Wind Direction 250 winds were at 12 gusting to 14, pressure was down to 1012.7 and trending down -1.6.

This bouy is at 28.8/86.1 or a little over 1 degree south of Panama City.

L8R,

Steve

new night, same story (#14)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 04:06AM 21-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNXW*)

that bermuda cluster last night is has been practically gone today. there's a new wave off africa eating dry air, and the convection around the southeast coast is jumbled frontal storminess. there is supposed to be a low near the big bend late tomorrow. right under 30-50kt northeasterly shear.
anyhow, i would have lost money had i gone with my instinct last weekend. i've gone with about three systems this month that i thought would go, guess i'm too easily fooled. july is going to go quietly unless the environment of the atlantic starts changing very soon. eastpac looks like it's finally kicking in at least.
Season (#15)
Posted by: Eduardo
Posted On 06:02PM 21-Jul-2001 with id (RPXNVQNQQUNTP*)

What is making the tropics so amazingly quite? It seems like activity, and the lack there-of, tends to come in clusters in the Atlantic....I wonder if there is an overall element that is dampening tropical activity....or is it just a coincidence that activity tends to come in clusters like that throuhout the whole atlantic.
Trough over Florida (#16)
Posted by: Mitch McCauslin (http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/) Location: Cape Canaveral
Posted On 06:32PM 21-Jul-2001 with id (RTNYUNRSQNQYT*)

Check out the below link from Joe Bastardi of Accuweather - a very long shot, but interesting. Also, check out the Tropical Outlook video that was updated today (right side of the screen under videos).

http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/news_index?nav=home&type=jbs
Flood Watches (#17)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 07:50PM 21-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNQVX*)

I get back from vacation and theres flood watches out over central and northern parts of south florida, all due to a back door cold front moving south and upper level energy moving into the area. Looks like tomorrow will be a very wet day with a low forecasted to develope off the west coast of florida tomorrow giving way to flooding in spots across central and southern florida. We need the rain put not in 2 or even 4 inches per hour...
Bastardi's video was great. I had to bookmark. (#18)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 08:47PM 21-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQWNQWNVP*)

Does anyone know what's up with UM or ATWC.org? UM's been down for 2 days and ATWC has been on and off. Just wondering.

Steve
Couple more things to watch... (#19)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 01:46AM 22-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQWNQWNQUX*)

There's a definite swirl sw of the convection off the LA coast. It's hard to tell without the visible, but under the IR, it looks almost like a weak low level circulation. But due to its definition, I'd say it's a mid or upper ahead of the trailing convection.

Also, look at the storms moving off the coast of Hispanola. They kind of popped up out of nowhere. With the upper level low NE of it, the Gulf trof far north and the Bermuda Ridge building in over the surface low off the E coast of Florida, this cluster chould enter a lull zone where the strong NE shear will be cut off from the R.o.F. Persistance of this cluster would be key. It appears to be part of a minor wave interacting with a weak upper level low in close proximity but I'm no guru. I'd give it a 2 in 10 chance of being "on the map" and a 1 in 10 of developing into anything.

Steve
i don't see it!! (#20)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 02:49AM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRQWNQS*)

hey,steve,i don't exactly see the swirl you are talking about south of LA.in fact it looks like everything is pretty much falling apart due to the blockage of the surface high in the gulf.can you direct me in the right direction so i can see what you see.thanks
competition for the walruses (#21)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 04:33AM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNQQU*)

hey, whaddya know... the pressures around florida are still slowly falling. i've been able to pick out a couple of circulation maxima along the trough, one east of daytona, the other broad but deeper around sarasota. shear is northerly at around 20kt, not too fierce for something to develop, but not ideal either. seems to be lightening up. all of the models i looked at maintain a low around the NE gulf for tomorrow, from there they split into two camps. one camp weakens the low and drifts it north, as if the return flow behind the longwave is bringing a decaying trough back north. the other deepens the low and moves it northwest towards the panhandle.. suggesting the deeper system would be steered some by the upper flow. it's just watch and wait now, see if the pressure keeps falling or if something starts to really stand out along the trough.
Something Forming? (#22)
Posted by: cane man
Posted On 07:42AM 22-Jul-2001 with id (VSNSVNWSNRSV*)

Are my eyes playing tricks on me or does it seem like something is forming west of the Tampa/Sarasota area? Can anyone tell if there is a low level circ? As of the 10:45 UTC photo on NHC site it sure looks to be taking shape. What does anyone else think?
Low in Gulf 1008mb-one buoy Report (#23)
Posted by: Mary Location: Polk County
Posted On 09:28AM 22-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQVRNU*)

It definitely looks like something forming however, I can also see elephants in the clouds on a hot summer day. I don't trust my eyes. I have been wrong too many times.
Visible Sat. Loop of FL (#24)
Posted by: Mitch Location: Cape Canaveral
Posted On 09:59AM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RTNYUNRSQNQYT*)

Here is a decent visible sat. loop image of the Florida area:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php3?region=TPA&isingle=multiple&itype=vis
no chance??? (#25)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 10:04AM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRQXNRPS*)

i guess even if something did form that we would have no chance of getting it here in the houston/galveston area?can someone please verify that for me?thanks
Shawn (#26)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 10:11AM 22-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQWNQWNRUS*)

The satellite picture I was referring to was NHC's (around) 2am EDT IR picture. There was a swirling feature. It may have washed out as I haven't looked at any imagery yet today.

Steve
Stron upper level winds (#27)
Posted by: cane man Location: Clearwater Beach, Fl.
Posted On 10:13AM 22-Jul-2001 with id (VSNTVNSNRSW*)

STeve Lyons said the upper level winds are too strong for this to develop. Does anybody know when they are forecast to weaken or when conditions would be more favorable?
its boring out there (#28)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER) Location: tampa
Posted On 12:57PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQTPNRQT*)

gulf low is nontropical, nothing
anywhere to develop in the next couple
days!!
nothing again (#29)
Posted by: shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 02:10PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RTNQVWNSNRUS*)

it looks like another case of a bunch of clouds and storms that can't seem to get their act together.let's face it;it's not going to happen this time either.the right elements just don't seem to be there.
Still a long shot... (#30)
Posted by: Mitch Location: Cape Canaveral
Posted On 03:22PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RTNYUNRSQNQYT*)

from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.html

SURFACE SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION...
WEAK 1008 MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS NEAR
27N83W. LATEST TAMPA RADAR IMAGES REVEAL NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN BANDS AROUND THE W THROUGH S SIDE OF CIRCULATION CENTER.
PRESSURE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INCREASING
ON THE S SIDE FROM 22N-27N. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN ACCELERATION OF
SURFACE WINDS WHICH ARE NOW IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVER A LARGE AREA
FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 80W-85W. IN ADDITION...A LARGE AREA OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 81W-87W. GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW... AS
WELL AS THE AMOUNT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...ANY
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS.
HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


subsidence as usual (#31)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 03:51PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNQQR*)

the cimss shear analysis says shear is less than 20kt, nowhere near enough to prevent development. so what could possibly be squelching this low? the answer is on wv, subsidence is still infringing on the small surface low southeast of tampa bay from the north, supressing convection on its northern semicircle. the pressure hasnt fallen around there since last night, so at best the low is maintaining. when you factor in the usual diurnal pressure variation, the net pressure change might be rising. it's just wait and see if it hangs around until the dry air wedge leaves it be.
cor (#32)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 03:52PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNQQR*)

low is sw of tampa bay.
Naples (#33)
Posted by: StormHound (http://stormhound.homestead.com) Location: Orlando/FL
Posted On 08:54PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RTNTYNRRVNYY*)

The area W of Naples is looking seems to be starting to wrap around on satellite. Still too early to call it a major storm, but looks to me (amatuer that I am) like we could have a Depression within hours. This one is on our doorstep, so it certainly bears watching.
Naples (#34)
Posted by: Dana
Posted On 09:19PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPTNUS*)

Sure is windy here in Naples.
HUM! Could we have something? (#35)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 09:24PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNQWQ*)

Well theres a broad low level circulation with the center just offshore here in Pinellas. I've been watching and TPC has issued a statement on it around 8:35 this evening. Now the thing I'am seeing that is holding it back may be the mid level drying, that could change though as the system drifts slowly west and north through the night and into tomorrow where I think it will pickup speed and move north. Thunderstorms persist and hearing thunder now as a band of storms moves slowly west around the low. I think this needs to be watched closely....
HUM! Could we have something? (#36)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 09:24PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNQWQ*)

Well theres a broad low level circulation with the center just offshore here in Pinellas. I've been watching and TPC has issued a statement on it around 8:35 this evening. Now the thing I'am seeing that is holding it back may be the mid level drying, that could change though as the system drifts slowly west and north through the night and into tomorrow where I think it will pickup speed and move north. Thunderstorms persist and hearing thunder now as a band of storms moves slowly west around the low. I think this needs to be watched closely....
could we see it? (#37)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 09:28PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRSTNQSU*)

if this area around florida does develop,what are the chances of it coming to the houston/galveston,texas area.i know they would be pretty low.can anyone answer this for me?
'Bout time NHC has acknowledged (#38)
Posted by: cane man Location: Clearwater Beach, Fl.
Posted On 09:39PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (VUNRRTNQVNY*)

I live u the road from you Joe near Indian Rocks Beach. It has been a very weird weekend weather wise. Not your typical rainy weekend but very eerie and tropical. I wondered why this morning nothing was announced when my very amateur eyes thought it saw a definite tropical system definition on radar. Well at least they finally made us aware but hopefully the news will jump on this tonight and help get all others informed. Nothing may come of this but with the close proximity to land and how fast a system in these warm waters can develop, it is worth taking serious.
Shawn... (#39)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 09:55PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQWNQWNQV*)

Likely no chance. The center of the lower pressure will probably move between North and Northwest and would likely cross the shoreline in Florida between Tampa and Panama City. This depends on how far westward the Bermuda Ridge builds and also whether the energy in the east Atlantic pulls due north as expected. If the low-level center were to still be in the NE Gulf on Tuesday without having progressed 100 miles further north, then ultimate landfall will depend on how far westward the upper high over TX and OK retrogrades. This will determine if anyone in MS or AL would be affected. You in Galveston will probably remain under a general NW-NE upper flow for the next few days which would inhibit anything from moving your way anyway except thunderstorms circling that upper high.

The pressure here is pretty low. It's been around 28.84 this evening which is generally low for us in SE LA.

Steve
looking pretty impressive! (#40)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 11:41PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRPVNRRS*)

it looks like the convection is firing up again around our low pressure system.it looks like it's just a matter of time before we have td#3 on our hands.it does look like us in texas are for sure safe from this one though.anyone what to put some percentages on where exactly it will end up or is it still too early to speculate?also,should everyone along the whole gulf coast have their eyes on this one;we all know what weird things tropical systems can do.
better than average (#41)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 12:27AM 23-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNYU*)

this trend keeps up and we'll have a depression or storm by tomorrow. it's already generating the winds and low pressures needed, just lacks the defined center, the last ingredient needed. right now there are three centers i can pick out, all of them pinwheeling around one another. one is SW of tampa bay, one has sprung up south of there a beam of ft myers, and another is west of those two. when this situation develops, the one that has the best convective support usually takes charge, thats what to look for tonight. the winds on the coast south of tampa have picked up thanks to a tightening pressure gradient, so as soon as a single center takes over it will get the nod. the frontal nature of the low is almost gone now. its track will be a function of strength. weak system moves north, stronger system engages the upper flow and moves more to the west.
Naples (#42)
Posted by: Dana Location: Naples, fl.
Posted On 01:09AM 23-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNSW*)

Well the Weather Channel says they're keeping an eye on this one. I would put sustained winds here of at least 20 mph and the trees are doing thier tropical dance. small limbs are starting break off and occasionally hit my roof. Should be intresting to see what they say by morning.
how strong? (#43)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 01:15AM 23-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRPVNRRS*)

before this system makes landfall,wherever that might be,in anyone's opinion,how strong could this thing get?
strength (#44)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 03:18AM 23-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNYU*)

that's anybody's guess. most models are discrediting 95L (the gfdl/nrl tracking name), or making ridiculous predictions (the 00z gfdl takes the cake here). consensus seems to be taking it north, with little or no strengthening. unless the storm stays still or moves westward, it's going to run out of room before it can strengthen much. the guaranteed story here is going to be RAIN. lots of rain, whether it becomes tropical storm barry or not.
Fizzle (#45)
Posted by: StormHound (http://stormhound.homestead.com) Location: Orlando/FL
Posted On 07:21AM 23-Jul-2001 with id (RTNTYNRRVNYY*)

Our GMEX storm seems to have spun out over the evening. The satellite images show little organization left. Still going to be some nasty weather for somebody when it decides where to go.
Show All Comments

Return to Central Florida Hurricane Center Main Page