CFHC Talkback For News Story #60:
Newest Talkback: 03:50 PM 08-19 EDT

Chris Dissipates
10:59 AM EDT - 19 August 2000

12:30PM Update:
The remnants of Chris will have to fight off shear for another day to two days. If it survives (it may not) it has a better chance of coming closer to the southeast US. Still, I'm not convinced of either happening right now.

The wave east of that in the middle of the Atlantic is looking good. Very good. In fact I would call it TD#7 now. Officialy, it will become a tropical depression (maybe even Tropical Storm) later in the afternoon. The main thing about this one is that it would be highly unlikely for this system to not affect the Lesser Antilles. The odds favor it going over the islands right now. So folks there should really be on watch.

Original Update:


Chris could not hold on. When aircraft recon came back there was not much of a system to find, so the NHC has stopped issuing advisories on it. It may regenerate later, but for now Chris is gone.

The wave east of that still isn't a depression, and Alberto is flexing itself again up to 105MPH winds.

Another wave has emerged from the African coast and also has a chance to form down the road.

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.


StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.
Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

Show All Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #9 (of 9 total)
Chris, gone? Debby, soon? (#1)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 11:47AM 19-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNTUNQRR*)

Well Chris has now degenerated, but i still would not right this system off. Give him 48 hours to enter a more favourable environment and he might well regenerate. By that time the shear that has been his demise should have eased, and may allow this system to regenerate. And the Leeward Islands can stop holding their breath now, as it seems he has made his point of closest approach, 120 miles NNE of Antigua. But those in the Bahamas might want to monitor the remnants closely as i stated he might regenerate when the shear lets up.
But what about the wave 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. I beleive it will be Debby by the end of the weekend. NHC say a TD is most likely forming at this very moment and they will probably begin issuing advisories later today. This storm poses a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It is at a very low latitude, and is moving west generally. This system will effect the islands at towards midweek. By that time it may be a storng Tropical Storm ,but i would not be surprised to see it as a Hurricane. Anyone in these islands needs to start watching this area very closely, and may need to think about making all the necessary checks. However it is still some way off and may not effect the islands. But the possibility is definitely there, and i feel it is the biggest threat to the islands so far this season. Watch closely!

Busy Week Ahead (#2)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 12:47PM 19-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNUY*)

Sounds good to me Richard! The cyclone that will eventually become Debby will likely be near the northern islands (vicinity Antigua?) late Tuesday and probably as a hurricane. Before next week is over it wouldn't surprise me to see Ernesto trailing behind it - the wave that came off of Africa yesterday already has excellent structure. Chris may re-enter the picture as well in a day or so, but I'd still expect it to stay well offshore.
Cheers,
ED
TD#7 (#3)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:33PM 19-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPVNQXX*)

Well, it looks as the NHC will upgrading the "wave" at 19/2100, according to the last TWD at 2:05pm. As for Chris, well, bye for now, we may see him in the future. As for the other ? as to why the NHC sometimes upgrades and sometimes doesn't, that has me baffled also. I think I see the other poster's point, but if you keep upgrading, then downgrading, the upgrading again, I think you also will lose the people's interest and faith in their forecasts...not that I believe that to be true, but some people could see it that way....just rambling.
Don't give up on Chris yet...... (#4)
Posted by: Rick Shade Location: Mobile
Posted On 02:38PM 19-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNTX*)

I don't think the latest infrared shows Chris to be just a low pressure center. It appears to me it will reform...the question is...where is it heading? If the center reforms farther south..and it is able to ride the ridge due west, then Mr. Bastardi's prediction of double trouble will come true. For sure..the system to the west will be a depression..should already be one. However...it doesn't matter what we call it...where is it heading? Has the track been more west of wnw....
TD#7 (#5)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 03:04PM 19-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNXT*)

I think from looking at the lastest visibles (which are old) it does seem to look as though it has a more w/nw movement for the time being. However, it's hard to tell because the satellite loops show only two frames...Gary Gray's page had an interesting discussion last night about the future path of Debby...it's under Millenium Weather under the storm links here...very good reading.
chris (#6)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 03:21PM 19-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNSR*)

I believe what's left of chris is a little turning of low-level clouds at 20N/62W moving WNW, at least that's what I can see from the last vis sat pix I saw. The LLCC was exposed and all the convection off to the NE. From what I can see at this time, chris doesn't stand a chance of redevelopment, if I'm seeing what I'm seeing. I don't know what's going on with the satellite pix the last few days. I thought something was wrong with my PC but apparently others are having the same trouble getting the access. I don't know but it seems if any shear is out there it will wipe Chris out. If it can re-develop there will be trouble in the SE US though. Still we watch and wait. cheers!

Almost certain Debby (#7)
Posted by: Alex K.
Posted On 03:26PM 19-Aug-2000 with id (QVXNQYQNQWXNRQQ*)

The wave about 1000 miles east of the Winward islands looks quite impressive. I think there is an almost 100 percent chance it will be a depression by the 5pm eastern daylight time advisory. The national hurricane center may completly skip the depression phase and directly upgrade the wave to Debby. My call is that it will effect the middle Winward islands as a tropical storm with winds of about 65mph during Monday afternoon.
The Pending TD (#8)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 03:48PM 19-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNUY*)

During the day, 'Debby-Do' seems to have gathered herself a little further to the north near 12.5N and 44W, but once the system has established its center, the movement should take on a track off to the west northwest. This probably places the northern islands a little more in jeopardy - time will tell.
Cheers,
ED
Chris not gone yet! (#9)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 03:50PM 19-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQWRNW*)

Well i agree that Chris is a low level swirl. However the latest vis and it imagery suggest that he may be trying again. There are indications that convection is increasing around the centre, located 20N 63W. It has only flared up in the passed hour or so, but is on the northwestern side of the low, very close to the centre. The lowlevel clouds are also spiralling in better, and to me it resembles old TD#4. I still dont right this system off yet, it looks like he may be back!!
And TD#7(not official yet!), looks impressive still. She will no doubt be Debby in a matter of hours, rather than days. And although she is still some 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles she will be a problem there! I think she will enter the Caribbean some time late Monday, or Early Tuesday, as a strong TS, possibly a Hurricane. I think most at risk from a landfall, or a very near landfall, are the islands of Guadeloupe, Dominica, and Martinique. Again this is only speculation. However if you live in any of the Leeward Islands, or any of the Northern Windward islands, from Barbados north, i would watch this one closely! It looks to be heading your way so get prepared people!
Show All Comments

Return to Central Florida Hurricane Center Main Page