CFHC Talkback For News Story #62:
Newest Talkback: 10:28 AM 08-20 EDT

TD#7 Holds
10:55 PM EDT - 19 August 2000

7 AM - 20 August 2000 Update:
The NHC is still having trouble finding the center of TD#7, so it remains a TD until 11AM. The forecast track has shifted a tad to the north and now it affects the extreme northeast Caribbean islands. It really depends on where the actual center really is, so all those Islands need to watch it closely.

The errors in the track could be fairly large one way or the other because of the problems with finding the center.


Original Update:

Tropical Depression #7 holds its name for the moment because of uncertainties with the center. The official forecast currently projects "Debby" to cross into the Caribbean Islands and eventually threaten Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The morning will tell more, because the NHC is not quite certain enough to upgrade it yet. (If the thunderstorm activity is over the center now, then it is probably close to a hurricane now)

In any case, the stage is set for solid strengthening and the ridiging will most likely keep it moving WNW so folks in these islands should start to prepare over the next day or two in case it heads toward them. Hurricane Watches for some islands could come as early as 11AM tomorrow. Listen to official sources for more information there.

Beyond that it is still a maybe south of Cuba or South of the Bahamas (the latter would be more dangerous for the US). It is important to remind you that all of this is still in the speculation stage this far out.

Alberto still is hanging around. Remnants of Chris are well, there. The wave in the East Atlantic will be watched later on, and that's all thats substantial right now.

Debby has the potential to be a "classic" hurricane in the future.

One of the better Meterologists I am familiar with (for Hurricane predictions) is now issuing web updates at Snonut's Hurricane Reports. Very worth checking out during the next few days and later on.

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.


StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.
Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #6 (of 6 total)
TD#7 almost a Hurricane!! (#1)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 04:06AM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSTNXU*)

Well TD#7 may now be close to hurricane strength. NHC say it may already be supporting winds in excsess of 50 kts (%*mph). I expect it to be upgraded to a TS at the %am Advisory, and to a hurricane possibly as soon ass the 11am Advisory. I will monitor this closely and may consider issuing Tropical Storm Watches, and Hurricane Watches after the 11am advisory. All residents in the islands need to monitor this system closely. It has potential to intensify rapidly, and will cause massive devastation and damage. If you live in the Northeastern Caribbean islands i think you need to begin preparations now. I expect this to be probably a CAT 2 Hurricane when it enters the Caribbean. However the circulation is so big and some of the outer bands may start affecting some islands later today.
And the remnants of Chris are looking better. The Bahamas need to watch this area in case he regenerates.
Visible imagery later will tell more on these systems!
TD#7 (#2)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 06:38AM 20-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSSNQXY*)

Hello All,
Well TD#7 continues moving at a good 16mph which should bring its approach to the islands sometime late Monday or early Tuesday. The area that TD#7 covers is much larger than any storm we've had this year so the outer bands of this system may start approaching the islands by early Monday. Hurricane Watches or Tropical Storm Watches may be needed by the 11am Advisory.
TD#7 is showing some development but the center is again hard to find but I believe we already have a weak Tropical Storm. The NHC wasn't sure where the center was so they decided to not upgrade it at this time until they have a better picture this mourning. Now for the forcast... TD#7 has moved more north than I thought it would by now so I have adjusted my path northward. The northeast carribean still is in direct path of what ever this becomes. My best guess right now is very near GUADELOUPE and then towards Puerto Rico after that. My biggest concern is how strong will TD#7 become. There is some dry air to TD#7 west though it looks like it also is moving west in front of this system so it may not have to deal with this dry air. The second is most of the heavy thunderstorms is well northeast of the depression though some new storms have fired up near the center I am not convinced of rapid intensification in the short term. I do see a CAT#1 or #2 as it approaches the islands and Puerto Rico. The GFDL is showing a more westward path south of Puerto Rico building the upper ridge very strong and allowing TD#7 to reach winds of 100mph. I believe its over producing the ridge as well as the strength so I don't hold this model reliable right now.. Again the big question is where after Puerto Rico will it head. And again I think once it passes about 70 degrees west we will know more which will be around Wednesday. My long range outlook does put then Hurricane Debbie into the Bahamas but its too early beyond that. Maybe late Monday or Tuesday before I start possible U.S. impact if at all.
Chris this mourning look better but still is under southwesterly shear so development is not likely today but tommorow may be a diffrent story as upper air winds should start to weaken and maybe allow for some development at that time. Its close enough to call for some concern for the Bahamas so at this time just keep as eye out just in case.
Snonut (#3)
Posted by: Rob Location: Melrose, FL
Posted On 09:16AM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQSRNQTTNRUT*)

I just bookmarked Snonut's site on your recomendation, however, I must mention that he was dead wrong re. Chris and TD #7. Not only was he wrong, but he does alot of crawfishing after the fact.
There will be an 11am update (#4)
Posted by: John C (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 10:17AM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)

Just to let you all know if you plan on posting, there will be a 11am News update so you might want to wait before posting.
debbie ...brief note (#5)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn,com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 10:21AM 20-Aug-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXWNRPV*)

well good report ed...but you were wrong on your position estimates on your add,but great insite.

Well folks just a brief say,,Debbie should be classified by 11 am advisory and watches for the islands should go up around 5pm I feel. The system won't be affecting the islands until late monday. My path for this system will not change as I posted in the last discussion on CFHC,,Debbie is NOT close to hurricane strength now and won't become one until monday morning.
Question? (#6)
Posted by: Andrew on my mind Location: Hollywood, Florida
Posted On 10:28AM 20-Aug-2000 with id (QSWNURNRPPNXW*)

Could someone please shed some light long range forecasts, specifically whether a strong Bermuda high will move in, or whether there appears to be a trough moving in on Wed or Thurs. Thus, I shall begin to act appropriately----
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