CFHC Talkback For News Story #63:
Newest Talkback: 10:55 PM 08-20 EDT

Debby On The Move
10:49 AM EDT - 20 August 2000


5pm Update 20 August 2000

Hurricane Watch issued by the Government of the Netherlands Antilles.  Watch for St. Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius.   Tropical Storm Warnings for Antigu, Barbuda and Anguilla. Watch may be upgraded to a hurricane watch later tonight or Monday morning.

Original Update:

As expected, tropical depression #7 is now Tropical Storm Debby! 

Heading toward the northern Caribbean Islands.

Intensification is predicted and is expected to be a Cat 1 Hurricane by Monday morning

Keep in mind to Refresh (Reload) the news page often especially during update times and when the important weather statements above do not completely load up.  Mike is working on that problem.

I'm not going to make any predictions on the strength and direction at this time, I will leave all that up to you in the comments. For those who do not read the "other peoples comments" there are some very good predictions by qualified folks who post from time to time. Just remember this site is not an official weather source!  Check it out.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.
Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [jc]

Show All Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #37 (of 37 total)
MY POSTION AND PERDICTIONS ARE ON SO FAR (#1)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn,com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 11:08AM 20-Aug-2000 with id (VSNSYNSWNRTY*)

GOOD JOB HERE GUYS AT CFHC. EVERYONE MY TRACK AND POSTS IS LOCATED IN THE LAST NIGHTS DISCUSSION PAGE #10 I FEEL IT WAS.. SO FAR I'M RIGHT ON WITH THE SAME AYNALISS WITH THE NHC POSITION AND FORCAST ..BUT WE ARE ALL DIFFERENT MAYBE DEBBIE WILL PROVE ME WRONG,,WE'LL SEE
Debby (#2)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 11:34AM 20-Aug-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPTNQXW*)

I feel Debby will hit the Gulf Stream and follow the Florida coastline to the north before heading out to sea. I have seen many storms do just this when in a location where Debby is now, and where she is expected to be in the next few days. We will see.
trying to help Andrew onmy mind (#3)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 11:39AM 20-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNQUR*)

the bermuda high is starting to streangthen and move west in tandem with debby there is a slow moving trough possibly forcasted to be moving in on wed thur, and the high may start to weeken on thur cusing a northwest turn as debby enters the bahamas. Debby could also have winds from 100 -135 knts. I am gathering all this from offisal forcasts and discussions on numerous sites, and what models are predicting i also hold faith in what mike andersons model says and trantech model is forcasting
Debby (#4)
Posted by: Richard (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 11:40AM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQXUNSU*)

Well Debby is a Tropical Storm with winds at 45 mph at the moment. I think she will be a hurricane by tomorrow morning and will likely impact some of the Leeward Islands as such. I think the track will take her just north of Guadeloupe before heading out towards Puerto Rico. After that i would not like to say. As for intensity, Debby will probably be a cat1 hurricane when she reaches the islands, but may intensify to as strong as cat 2. Her structure is good, with great banding features. The circulation is large, and the effects of Debby may begin to be felt as early as late tonight. We all seem to be concentrating on the storm, but dont forget that the waves will increase ahead of the system so the coastlines will become dangerous before the storm nears. I will be updating my site around 10pm UTC this evening, and expect to upgrade the 'Extended Watch' to a Tropical Storm Watch, or a Hurricane Watch for some islands. I also anticipate issuing High Surf and Coastal Flooding advisories for some islands in relation to Debby.
Persons in the Leeward Islands, and Puerto Rico need to monitor this sytem closely, follow official information, and be prepared to protect life and property.
And on a different note.... you may remember that a a week ago we were talking about an un-named Tropical Storm that developed south of Nova Scotia behind Alberto, on the end of one of the feeder bands. Well the remnants of that Tropical Storm reached southern UK on Friday, and brought us extremely heavy rains, a few thunderstorms, and gusty winds!
Any way, take care people, and i will post soon.
Corrections to previous comment (#5)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 11:50AM 20-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNQUR*)

i meant the high pressure could start weakening on wensday due to the approching trough but what scares me is that how close debby may come to florida if all holds true debby will start turning furrther south then floyd last year and could comea lot closer to the coast then floyd wich wouldent be good becuse i expect debby to anormous in sise even if debby stays 200 miles off are coast effects will be felt along th coast
Debby is Going to Be a Show Stopper no Matter Where She Goes (#6)
Posted by: Mary Location: LAkeland
Posted On 12:25PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRRV*)

Title of this says what I mean to say. However, I thought I saw an eye starting to form on the last frame of a Caribbean Satellite loop from the NHC. It is some what obscured by a Central Dense overcast but appears to be starting to peek through. Of course, I may just need more sleep and this is just a fluke of photography.

Debby's future (#7)
Posted by: Alex K.
Posted On 12:25PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQTNQSRNQSY*)

Even though there may be a chance of some recurvature in the long range models, Debby would have to recurve alot to not effect the coast altogether, because its circulation is already so large, and quite a bit of intensefacatiton is possible in the next week or so. I kind of agree with Robert.
Transtech Model (#8)
Posted by: OrlandoDude Location: O-Town
Posted On 12:31PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWXNRRYNQQY*)

Just a word of advise.. Don't pay much attention to the Trantech Model. It is a developing model that isn't very good (no offense Gary)as of yet. Infact even Gary Gray usually ignores his own model. While Gary Gray's forecast is usually excellent and has one of the most comprehensive and oldest sites out there, his model leaves little to be desired. Again, no offense Gary, your discussions and forecasts are by far one of the best.

comments (#9)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn,com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 01:52PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXYNRQY*)

your right orlando dude,,,,,Gary is one of the best in discussions,,i always respecthis input and wait to hear what he says,,,,but the trantech model is 20% accurate and I wouldn't go by that model at all,,,,the NOGAOPS AND UKMET are the 2 best models and the AVN is 40% in locations,butseems to overdue the strength of systems like the MRF.
Other than that,,Mary,,you do need some sleep..the center if anything is on the sw side of the dense overcast,,there is no eye.
Gulf of Mexico (#10)
Posted by: Richard (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 03:25PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSSNQRY*)

Just a brief posting to ask if anyone has noticed the convection that has flared up off the FL, AL coast... I understand it is located at the end of a stationary front. Convection flared up in the same area yesterday afternoon.
Gulf Flare up (#11)
Posted by: Mary Location: LAkeland
Posted On 03:29PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRRV*)

Yes I have noticed it. So far it is just thunderstorms forming on the sea breeze.
Gulfstream Comment (#12)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:50PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNWS*)

I realize that what the poster was saying about the gulfstream, and I understand. I want to make an important point though: the GULF STREAM has nothing to do with where a storm goes...look at Andrew, for example...not trying to be argumentive, but don't think the GulfStream protects, because is DOES NOT. The most important factors are these: ridges, troughs, wind direction....Regards, Colleen
Debbie (#13)
Posted by: Rick Shade Location: Mobile
Posted On 05:28PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNUX*)

The Navy website indicates a path just north of the islands...but south enough to definitely affect the U.S. We have a problem on our hands. The only question now, is how large a hurricane..and where it will hit.
Debby (#14)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 05:33PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQXT*)

I agree with you Colleen, the factors you listed do indeed determine where a storm will go. I do feel the Gulf Stream does play a role in a storms movement no matter how small that role may be. To many storms have followed to coastline from South Florida to New England to say that it doesn't.
Debby not Debbie (#15)
Posted by: John C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 05:35PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)

Not to be critical but a few folks are spelling the name wrong. I know Debby can be spelled many way's Debbie, Debi, Debby. Put this particular storm is Debby. Just thought I would throw that in. :)
Debby (#16)
Posted by: Jonathan Location: Indialantic, Fl
Posted On 05:55PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNQVXNUUNQW*)

All of you guys are looking way too far into the future of this storm. The forcasts you w=must be looking at are out 120 hours... That is way to far to tell what will happen. Just wait and see
um jonathan (#17)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 06:17PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQWSNRUR*)

when you have a 72 hour forcast track that has a pretty big hurricane on wnw heading placed in the souteastern bahamas the chances are pretty damn great were gonna get something from this system and the models dont even talk of a turn till 96 hours and that is to late if it is already in the bahamas!
um robert (#18)
Posted by: rich Location: indialantic
Posted On 06:32PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (VSNRUTNQPQNXR*)

hey you guys,don't forget this is not a major hurricane yet!it is tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour.no one knows how big it will get yet.some off you guys are getting way ahead of yourselves here.i'm not saying that it won't get big but your acting like it's andrew already.keep your heads on about this thing.
Kickin left? (#19)
Posted by: Rick Shade Location: Mobile
Posted On 06:43PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQVT*)

Shore looks like it has kicked west, and some sort of eye is forming. Wouldn't suprise me if it's a hurricane soon. What is the story about the system in the Gulf? Has that got a chance of doing anything...
Gulf Bound (#20)
Posted by: Jay Location: Mobile
Posted On 06:47PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQXR*)

This thing is bound for the Gulf. Were the waters are in the upper 80's. then it will get interesting.
Debby now (#21)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 06:55PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQXQNRR*)

I agree with those who say it is too early to tell, but there can be no harm in making a good guess. It does seem quite likely the system may affect the SE US at some point, but when and how much is still anyones guess. At the moment though we should be monitoring the system, and its threat to the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. It is very well organised at the present tme and sustained winds at 21:00 UTC were at 45 mph. This seems a little low for such a well organised system to me, but i would not be surprised to see the storm attain hurricane strength tomoro. I have now replaced the 'Extended Watch' with Tropical Storm Watches and Hurricane Watches on my site. I expect to upgrade some of these watches to warnings early tomoro morning.
This system is quite large, and it will likely affect many islands in some way. Everyone in the area needs to monitor it very closely. Remember the danger not only comes from the wind, but the water. The coastlines will become dangerous before the storm arrives with high surf and dangerous currents. When the storm is passin there will also be torrential rain which can cause dangerous flash flooding. Everyone needs to be preparing to protect life and property NOW!.
After passing over the northern Leeward Islands i expect Debby to pass either just south, or over Puerto Rico, then head off towards the Dominican Republic and then the Turks and Caicos Islands. After that i really would not like to say, but i think we will need to monitor it closely as the storm may become a dangerous threat to the SE US in a few days.
debby (#22)
Posted by: troy Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 07:21PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQTNXNTQ*)

around this timr ;ast year we were al watchin dennis and then a few weeks later taht pesky guy floyd. I am sure most of you have had the chance to prepare for the season. by thi si mean supplies such as batteries, water, food, a place to go in case of a major evacuation such as with floyd last year in florida and the carolinas.
please folks, if you have pets do not leave them behind. try and make arrangements that involve them. the terror a human might face 'riding out' a storm must surely be as intense if not worse for an animal. ok now that my public sevice announcement is over, debby will be one to watch , for sure. a simialr path to erin allready. we will see. take care troy
um Robert (#23)
Posted by: Jonathan Location: Indialantic, Fl
Posted On 07:23PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNQVXNUUNSX*)

You need to look at Chris.... They thought that it would form to be a hurricane and it got splatted. Dont get all PO that i am right and you got a little pesimistic.
Debby's possible track (#24)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 07:42PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYUNRX*)

I'm agreeing with a track that takes Debby just north of the Antilles; that is, slightly north of the NHC track. Even so, it will be too close for comfort.
scott's sight (#25)
Posted by: troy Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 07:45PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQTNXNTQ*)

hi scott i tried to go to your web site listed with your posts and get an not found error. is the correct url listed??

troy
Scott's Site (#26)
Posted by: John C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 07:53PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)

He has a Typo in the URL listed instead of the comma before the com place a DOT you will get there.

http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER

Why are they Running Models on Chris (#27)
Posted by: OrlandoDude Location: O-Town
Posted On 08:18PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWXNRSUNRQW*)

I just looked at the NHC Models and they appear to be running GFDL Models on Chris.. Seems strange. They havent done that since they downgraded him.

Here is the link if anyone cares to look..

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/00082022
Jonathan (#28)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:50PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNQT*)

Knock it off...we are trading ideas here and I have had about enough of your attitude...they are predicting this storm to be IN PR withing 72 hours...go do your research....I have kept quiet, but I would like to say this: Robert is one of SMARTER posters on this site. If you don't like what he says, don't respond...and go fight on the AOL weather chats.
For All who want to listen (#29)
Posted by: Jonathan Location: Indialantic, Fl
Posted On 09:02PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNQVXNUUNXW*)

Hey All. I dont have an attitude and i realize that we are just trading ideas. I have nothing against you robert. I was just essentally saying that it is way to early to compare a tropical storm to a Floyd or and Andrew. I know my hurricane history and that was all that i was saying. Mabe i will be eating my words when I am evacuating later this week but until then I am just sticking with my too early stance. And I am just talking about Fl as a whole not PR or the Islands. Again I do not mean to come off with a bad attitude and I am sorry.
chris (#30)
Posted by: troy Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 09:06PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQTNXNTQ*)

that model seems to be the history of chris. the last cordinate is close to where he is now. the first one list also is where he was born. close to where debby is now...

troy
Debby & Florida (#31)
Posted by: Debbie Location: Port St. John, Florida
Posted On 09:30PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRUNY*)

Does anyone have an idea WHEN Debby MAY affect Florida's weather (Hypothetical IF she comes here as a hurricane, of course). I'm suppose to leave for a flight out of Orlando on Friday, returning on Monday. Just curious.....
westward.. (#32)
Posted by: brian Location: Largo , Fla
Posted On 09:33PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNXVNQRNRQ*)

I realize it could be just a temporary jog but
Has anyone else noticed more of a westward component to Debby's movement perhaps a bit more than the west to north-west movement it has been on..ive noticed this over the last several hours of satelite pictures.. granted it's a bit difficult to pick out the center on the infra red's.... But my thinking is the trantech model is going to end up being a bit too far from the north..What does everyone else think about the models , as far as the future movement of debby is concerned ?
no prob john (#33)
Posted by: robert
Posted On 09:43PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNQSS*)

im not saying anyones right im staying calm about this becuse i have caused some problems involving things being edited and deleted on other sites.
i never ment andrew if i wanted to say andrew or floyd i would have said golioth sised monster from wich there is no ecsape but possible 80 knts and stregthening is good enough for me to start woring
In responce to brian "being nice" (#34)
Posted by: robert
Posted On 09:54PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNQSS*)

the forcast track from the nhc has debby starting a more westward track and she is in about the area that the forcast starts her on a more westward WNW instead of here previous northwestward WNW track. i hope i dont confuse the hell out of anybody
Chris Model Question Again (#35)
Posted by: OrlandoDude Location: O-Town
Posted On 10:22PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWXNRSUNRQW*)

The NCEP ran models on Chris at 7 PM this evening. A GFDL Model. While someone suggested that the numbers where were he was born and where he is now, that does not seem to be the case.

Here is the information, since it appears that the link I provided was unclear:


NCEP HURRICANE MODEL..GFDL MMM...FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS 06L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 20

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 22.1 66.6
6 22.8 67.6 305./11.7
12 23.7 68.6 312./12.3
18 24.4 69.8 299./13.8
24 25.1 70.5 316./ 9.0
30 25.5 71.4 293./ 9.5
36 25.8 71.6 339./ 3.4
42 26.4 71.8 336./ 6.1
48 26.8 72.2 316./ 5.5
54 27.1 72.4 335./ 3.9
60 27.5 72.7 324./ 4.8
66 28.0 72.8 347./ 4.8
72 28.5 73.2 320./ 5.6
78 28.9 73.3 338./ 4.8





OrlandoDude (Chris) (#36)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 10:36PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQXW*)

Went to the site you listed. The current Satellite Image locates what was Chris to be near 22.1N 66.6W. All day a flare up of thunderstroms have been trying to develope around the center of what was Chris. Have E-mailed some friends about this and should have some kind of answer Monday.
Debby, Chris (#37)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:55PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNTT*)

Debby seems to be to be gaining strength and I wound not be surprised to see her upgraded to a very srong TS at 11 and a hurrican at 5, dependig on how fares over night..as for Chris, I do believe he is coming back together quickly......DEbby looks like she is on a more w than w/nw course tonight...of course that could chage....good niteall seeyou tomorrow!!!
Show All Comments

Return to Central Florida Hurricane Center Main Page