Models Back Toward the West
06:48 AM EDT - 23 August 2000

This morning the South Florida / Gulf Scenarios chances just went up. It a rather drastic change from yesterday, almost all of the models now take the Storm westward into the Gulf of Mexico. However, these seem extreme (and already a bit off), so that leaves the middle ground, which could include South Florida and the Keys.

There are a few possibilties:

From one extreme to the other:

1. It does go into the gulf. (Not Out of the Question)
2. It travels into the Florida Keys. (I expect some voluntary Evacucations happening here today or tomorrow).
3. It could hit South Florida around Miami.
4. It could enter north of Miami... Basically the worst thing imaginable for Emergency management (and the Insurance Industry). There is a fair chance that Debby could enter and travel up through the state of Florida as a major hurricane.
5. It could skirt the East coast of Florida ala David 1979 and eventually landfall somewhere north of Florida.
6. A miracle could happen and turn it out to sea.

The most likely answer lies somewhere in the middle of those. Speculation is rampant now, and I'm sure that it will cause a lot more headaches as time passes. Indeed the 5AM official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has numbers 3 and 4 as real possibilites.

Therefore, keep watch and take any advice local authorities give you. Don't take our word for it, listen to the pros at the NHC. And pepare. And don't panic nor let hype consume you -- stay informed.

Please leave a comment if you hear something from local media, government, etc. on Evacuations, General Storm Information, or all around good tips. Thanks. Today and early tomorrow will be decision day for a lot of people. Friday will start to be action day (timelines could change, plan for this too). And as Jim William's said last night, remember that sometimes friends and family can wind up being more of a hurricane themselves.