CFHC Talkback For News Story #75:
Newest Talkback: 05:57 PM 08-29 EDT

Unfavorable for Significant Development
08:57 AM EDT - 29 August 2000

This pretty much sums up the Atlantic at the moment. This is unusual for late August. Things could change rapidly, however, so it still requires watching. The peak of the Season is in the middle of September.

The system east of Florida has this Upper Level Shear problem as well.

Things will change again, so keep watch.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Debby (Good Forecast Track Graphic)


Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #18 (of 18 total)
What is going on?? (#1)
Posted by: David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 10:14AM 29-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

I have lived in Florida (Brevard County) for 16 years.
Never have I seen such strange weather patterns.
We used to get rain every day in the summer time, you could set your watch by it. Now we go weeks with out rain, everything seems to be burning up.

I am starting to think that we are going to have a mild year for major storms, the news and weather channels are all hype in attempts to sell the news/weather.

Anyone have any different thoughts?
low pressure off florida coast (#2)
Posted by: Gary Location: Jacksonville
Posted On 10:57AM 29-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQURNVUNR*)

The news stations here are saying that the low may develop by this afternoon or tommorrow. Has anyone else heard this as of yet?
Low and other subjects (#3)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 11:44AM 29-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

The low may well yet develop, but looks like it is much further off the coast (reforming). Plus, interesting to see how low of C Fl and MCS interacts with the system east of Fl. Complex to say the least!

Take a gander int he ATL east of the islands, things may be changing!

IHS,

Bill


New circulation center (#4)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 11:53AM 29-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Forming about 28N/78W, nice banding. The other low is still there off of Grand Bahama, but it is roating sse around the forming low, and appears to be trying to organize, but is shearing.

The new low looks healthy, moving NNE it appears at this time.

Stay tuned...btw, there is even a small mesovorticity center of DAB ...nothing will happen there, tho.

IHS,

Bill
Atlantic (#5)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 12:10PM 29-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Things seem ready to change, agree Bill. Seems like a broad area of rotation around the east coast of Florida right now...still a lot of uncertainty as to what's going to happen with this system(s). But yes east of the islands there are a couple of waves I've been watching this morning. One east of the windwards, and another off Africa. Things should get interesting again in the tropics> cheers!
atlantic area (#6)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 01:16PM 29-Aug-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNS*)

NHC running test models on suspect area around 28.0 and 79.0.... looking better on latest sat picture too....
LOOKS IMPRESSIVE (#7)
Posted by: NICK
Posted On 02:38PM 29-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYUNSX*)

LATEST NASA IR/ AND NRL VIS AROUND 29N-74W LOVE THE SIGHT, KEEP IT UP
Subtop/trop depression or storm (#8)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 02:52PM 29-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Is located at approx 29/72.8. Good banding, getting it's act together. Amazingly, NHC seems not to see it. The latest model run still starts at 29/78 approx, or 5 degrees to far west! And recon is tasked at looking in the same vicinity (altho that was in the am). The 2:05 pm TPC discussion ha a 1009 mb low at 29/28...where there is absolutely nothing...I assume that is a typo and they meant 29/73?!

Let he has eyes to see, see!

We have a rapidly developing system in the location in the first paragraph, looks like it is moving N at this time. The only caveat is it may not be all the way to the surface, but you could fool me!

The original circulation is still there (barely) just about on top of Grand Bahama moving SSE...but not for long!

Comments?

IHS,

Bill


correction re: TPC Discussion (#9)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 02:57PM 29-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Meant to say TPC has a 1009 mb low at 28/78, not as stated...but the low is at 29/73!

IHS,

Bill
td#8 (#10)
Posted by: Gary Location: Jacksonville
Posted On 03:18PM 29-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQURNVUNR*)

the pressure seems to be droping and the formation is better than ever. i think we will se td #8 by morning
Gulf?? (#11)
Posted by: Jodi
Posted On 03:24PM 29-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNQYV*)

Just looking at the Weather Channel's Gulf Sat. picture it looks like something just crossed over Fla. and is coming into the GOM. Am I right? Where is that coming from and where is that moving? I'm hoping something (like some moisture!!) will make its way to the upper Tx coast. It sure would be nice to see some rain. Thanks a bunch!!
Re: GOM (#12)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 03:39PM 29-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSV*)

I noticed that also..we had quite a storm come down the peninisula this morning, don't know if that is what it's from, or something different. Who says there is nothing to watch
Re: Low Pressure Area (#13)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 03:52PM 29-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSV*)

Bill..just out of curiousity, could it be that that they are saying the low is there because of the buoys located out that way? That is almost the exact location of the CC buoys which are showing 1010.4 pressure. Just wondering if this may be why they are saying that. Thanks, Colleen
Caribbean Shearing (#14)
Posted by: Tom Location: Melbourne
Posted On 04:08PM 29-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Does anyone have an idea when the will the "shearing" in the Caribbean decrease
David (#15)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 05:27PM 29-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXX*)

Been in Brevard County since about 6 yrs old over 35 yrs. Yes, I think the weather is changing here we indeed are not getting the rain like we use to. I was just talking to some friends about that same thing today. I think we will start to see some activity in the tropics as soon as the Bermuda monster goes away!
73W 30N (#16)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 05:41PM 29-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQWVNQRQ*)

The area around 73W 30N looks very interesting! Does anyone have any feelings bout it? Convection is good, and a centre appears to be near the above co-ordinates. I think the system may be moving slowly north, or just west of north, but i have no details on it. I think it may be a possible area to watch as it nears the Gulf Stream...., anyone else have any comments on this system?

What a mess! (#17)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 05:50PM 29-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

is the only way to describe what is going on around and to the s an sw of Florida.

I'll admit the low at 30/73 doesn't look as tight right now, meanwhile the low in the Bahamas is holding on, barely, and who knows what is going on in the Gulf, and just s of the west tip of Cuba!

Sheesh!

IHS,

Bill
Answer to Colleen (#18)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:57PM 29-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Colleen-

sharpening up my eyeballs, I do see a circulation about where TPC put it, but they still ignored the other developing low when they put out the discussion.

There definitely IS a circulation near 29/78, seems to be moving slowly south around the other low developing to the east.

What a mess!

IHS,

Bill
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